WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[StormingB81]

New Warning out for JTWC...

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.0N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.9N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.5N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 123.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND
090300Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Look at the come..it is alot bigger...becoming unpredictable?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.0N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.9N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.8N 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.5N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.2N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 123.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
080000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND
090300Z.//

[RobWESTPACWX]

For everyone in Okinawa Kadena remains in TCOR V and really unlikely it will upgrade from there..

http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tccor.htm

[StormingB81]

For everyone in Okinawa Kadena remains in TCOR V and really unlikely it will upgrade from there..

http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tccor.htm

Actually since we are not in June yet we are in NO tCCOR I am wondering as a percaution if they will put us in TCCOR 4.

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin No. 6
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "BEBENG"

Issued at 5:00 a.m., Sunday, 08 May 2011

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" has intensified further and is expected to make landfall over catanduanes this morning.

Location of Center: (as of 4:00 a.m.) 40 km Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes
Coordinates: 13.4°N, 124.5°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 13 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Monday morning:
100 km Southeast of Baler, Aurora

Tuesday morning:
70 km Southeast of Laoag City

Wednesday morning:
250 km North Northwest of Laoag City or 180 km West Northwest of Basco, Batanes


Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal

Signal 2 (61-100 kph)
Luzon
Sorsogon
Albay
Camarines Sur
Camarines Norte
Catanduanes
Polilio Island
Quezon
Burias Island
Ticao Island

Visayas
Northern Samar

Signal 1 (30-60 kph)
Luzon
Masbate
Marinduque
Romblon
Laguna
Rizal
Bulacan
Nueva Ecija
Nueva Viscaya
Quirino
Aurora
Isabela

Visayas
Eastern Samar
Western Samar

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 and # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.

[RobWESTPACWX]

NO TCOR is the equivalent asTCOR V I suppose, in the atlantic thats what its called, funny how the standard changes.

But it going up to VI is really unlikely, to be perfectly honest JTWC points the long range tracks at bases 90% of the time to be safe. This track is a perfect case with the right front quadrant going over Kadena in the long range.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Well, I can about guarantee you no one in the PI is paying attention to the storm right now. I mean for god sakes my wife who never even watches sports had the match on when I got home a few minutes ago. Any how as clark stated earlier, something as simple as a sporting event will take away coverage on this storm. Just something to watch.

[dexterlabio]

The fight has ended, so I can now turn my attention again to this storm. Seems like Filipinos are having a good time now.


Well, it looks like the land interaction has affected the circulation of Aere.

[RobWESTPACWX]

From PAGASA:


At 4:00 am today, Tropical Storm "BEBENG" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 40 km Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes (13.4°N, 124.5°E) with maximum sustained winds of 85 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 100 kph. It is forecast to move West Northwest at 13 kph.
Forecast:
Bicol Region, Quezon Province and Northern Samar will experience stormy weather while the rest of Eastern Luzon and of Samar Provinces will have rains with gusty winds. The rest of Central and Southern Luzon and of Visayas will be cloudy with scattered to widespread rains and thunderstorms which may trigger flashfloods and landslides. The rest of the country will be having mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.

Moderate to strong winds winds blowing from the Northeast to Northwest will prevail over the rest of Luzon and coming from the West to Southwest over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.The coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough.

[RobWESTPACWX]

The fight has ended, so I can now turn my attention again to this storm. Seems like Filipinos are having a good time now.


Well, it looks like the land interaction has affected the circulation of Aere.

Agree with the land interaction tearing it apart right now, Good news as it could weaken it just prior to landfall, but defiantly not going to make TY strength.

Also a decent fight as well. Mosley really disappointed me with his defensive attitude, but a good fight none the less.

[ManilaTC]

Pacquiao was mad after the push of Mosley by the 10th.

Anyway, the NW turn still has not happened though.

[westerncyclonecenter]

latest weather updates for Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng/03W) at [url]westerncyclonecenter.blogspot.com[/url]

[StormingB81]

looks like according to ....JMA it has finally turned nw

[dexterlabio]

Weakened to 40 kts according to JMA, and yes the NW motion has begun. Forecast shows Aere not to intensify anymore before it touches Luzon.


TS 1101 (Aere)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 8 May 2011

<Analyses at 08/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°55'(14.9°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55'(17.9°)
E121°20'(121.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 11/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E122°10'(122.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)




While JTWC still at T3.0 on Aere...

TPPN10 PGTW 080618

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE)

B. 08/0532Z

C. 14.7N

D. 123.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .60 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 3.0 DT. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HATHAWAY

[phwxenthusiast]

^^ yeah, that land interaction definitely affected Aere's development, but looks like convection is flaring again...

btw, some very heavy rainfall amounts on WMO... Catarman reporting 377mm... Michael Padua's weather station in Naga is also reporting as much as 300mm of rain... yikes!!

[oaba09]

It started raining hard here a couple of minutes ago

[dexterlabio]

There were on-and-off rains here in QC this morning, but around 3pm the sky turned so dark and heavy rains started to pour. Yeah, and it's still raining hard.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Unfortunately ABS CBN reporting 4 deaths due to flooding with one due to electrocution (Below)


---------------------
LEGAZPI CITY, Philippines – Thousands of residents were evacuated, hundreds were left stranded in ports while power and telecommunications went down in many parts of Bicol as tropical storm “Bebeng” battered the region on Sunday morning.

At least one person, identified as Arnulfo Pesito of Libon, Albay, died after he was electrocuted by a toppled power line, according to a report received by the Office of Civil Defense (OCD) in the region.

At least 10,700 residents of flood-prone and landslide-prone areas have been evacuated to safer ground and at various evacuation centers across the region, according to an OCD report released at noon Sunday.