ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

[HURAKAN]

shapeless and no well-defined center, gotta love the tropics!! More patience is required!!

[HURAKAN]

it looks like a chicken or an alien, or something weird!! lol

[Nimbus]

The only bad thing about the shear keeping this from developing is that when the shear lets up and high pressure starts to build in over Florida the track might shift further west into the gulf.

[SouthDadeFish]

Judging by the first visible images from the NASA GHCC site, it appears the surface center is becoming elongated. Some of it is rotating from south of Jamaica and its stretching to the E where the edge of convection is.

[ROCK]

have to agree with MSG on center location....if you can call it that. the red circle is where I would put it. one big mess that needs more time....seen that before...

[ROCK]

Here's the only stong solution I've seen for the GOM.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011060406&prod=prp&tau=144&set=Tropical

NOGAPS is hands-down THE worst tropical cyclone model on the planet. Whatever it says, I'd go 180 degrees from that. Taking a look at the overnight models, I see most just have it wandering around near Jamaica for 4-5 days then dissipating. That's probably most likely. Canadian, of course, develops it to a hurricane and tracks it NNE. There is a chance it could develop in a few days. If so, then it would probably track north to northeast as per the Canadian.

oh come on... ..you know the NAM is the worst model on the planet.....dont tell Ivan that....

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest windsat.

[NDG]

Over all 94L has as good as it gets upper level conditions for this time of the year in the Caribbean with shear running well below average in that area.

[Ivanhater]

Recon is still a go

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

[cycloneye]

Recon is still a go

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)..........ADDED:
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 04/1630Z
D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 04/2000Z TO 04/2315Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

That was from yesterday's TCPOD. Today's is still not out.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Ivanhater]

Structure looks good. Typical look for an early June developing system. Deep convection on the eastern side of the low. Nice wrap around moisture on the western side.

[cycloneye]

The TCPOD for today has not been released. Let's see what they say about this afternoon's mission.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[Ivanhater]

Doh! Still dusting the cobwebs off from the winter break..Thanks Luis!

[psyclone]

last night this thing looked pretty decent with curved bands evident in the eastern semicircle. today it looks like a disjointed mess with banding replaced with "blobbing" a greater distance from the center. i can't imagine they would send recon into this.

[Ivanhater]

last night this thing looked pretty decent with curved bands evident in the eastern semicircle. today it looks like a disjointed mess with banding replaced with "blobbing" a greater distance from the center. i can't imagine they would send recon into this.

There may be a COC relocation closer to the deep convection looking at visible apart from the broader circulation to the west. That would be pretty typical with systems this time of year. We will see as the day progresses

[cycloneye]

Todays mission has been canceled.However,they have other ones for Sunday and beyond.

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 041515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 05/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
       C. 05/1430Z
       D. 17.0N 78.0W
       E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
       A. 06/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
       C. 06/0145Z
       D. 17.0N 78.0W
       E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
       SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
       BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.


[NDG]

Recon cancelled for this afternoon:

NOUS42 KNHC 041515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 04 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-004

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 05/1430Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 05/1745Z TO 04/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 06/0145Z
D. 17.0N 78.0W
E. 06/0500Z TO 06/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE
SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION FOR 04/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 04/1300Z.

[chaser1]

Well, I typically fall within the "reason the system SHOULD develop" camp, but after days of various model-canes, where most of the global models have jumped on, then off, and then back on again....., am starting to lose confidence in 94L.

No doubt, there has been real gains in the systems overall structure , but the obvious constant displacement of convection to it's North and East speaks volumns of the upper level shear the system continues to fight. Though short range 200mb models show some relaxing of the shear in the immediate area and Northwestern Caribbean, looking at the 200mb flow for the region and even entire N. Hemisphere, I just dont see a reasonable solution for a depression to form, unless it were to form farther to the East ( or Southeast ). I think, some of the less reliable modeling ( in relation to motion ), might try to take the system more Northeastward and into the Atlantic and develop the system given the less relative shear. More probable for this "shallow system" would be a slow WNW to NNW motion, which based on 200mb forecast maps out to 180 hour, would seem to consistantly impact at least moderate shear, thus lacking the opportunity to ever get itself vertically stacked. Anything that the models pick up on ( or that actually occurs ) indicating some NE motion, would likley be a mid level reflection attempting to develop, that simply gets picked up and seperated from the broad low level persisting south of Jamaica.