ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.

Agreed on the TD except I dont think the NHC will upgrade with winds barely a 20mph. but technically its a TD

[gatorcane]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.

Thanks for the update WxMan. Things will get interesting needless to say if it moves WSW and ends up in the SE GOM. Good news is that the southern half of the Florida peninsula would finally get its "drought buster." Not so good news is what will happen in the GOM?

Right now it is difficult to say where it goes. I would think if it deepens more quickly it can get pulled to the NE as there is a weakness at 200MB-300MB level there looking at the GFS/NAM 06Z.

[northjaxpro]

I would put a better getting organized low pressure center at or just below the 28th latitude, conservatively, if not a bit closer to the deep convection.
I am basing this per the latest sat loop and radar loop, but strong vorticity may still be strongest above the surface as we are still not seeing any really surface pressure drops in the area.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... o2j3Zb.jpg

Actually I was just about to post something similar. I have it approximately at 27.9 77.8

Aric, observing radar and satellite imagery, those coordinates for a rough center estimate is about right.

I went out for a couple of hours this morning for a jog, came back and see 98L is continuing to look better in its satellite imagery. Really looking forward to the Air Force Recon aircraft flying in to investigate 98L this afternoon. Steering currents are rather weak for the next 48 hours or so and 98L is going to meander around during this time. I think it will definitely have sufficient enough time over water in the short term to develop into a TD or possibly a minimal TS within the next 24 hours or so.

[NDG]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.

Agreed on the TD except I dont think the NHC will upgrade with winds barely a 20mph. but technically its a TD

I agree, they are probably going to wait till the recon gets there in about 3 hrs.

[Ivanhater]

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[Weatherfreak000]

I knew a storm that had the look when I saw one! Game on!



Sadly enough though...it appears alot of ppl have left storm2k over the past year or two...it's sad.

[gatorcane]

Water temps around the FL peninsula and adjacent Gulf and Atlantic waters. Look how warm the SSTs are in the SE GOM. Also, quite warm in the Gulf stream and Bahamas flats as well:

[wxman57]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.

Agreed on the TD except I dont think the NHC will upgrade with winds barely a 20mph. but technically its a TD

I think winds are probably 25-30 kts now in convection south and east of the center. Problem is all obs in the area are on the outer perimeter of the convection, not where winds are likely the strongest. ASCAT passes precisely missed this area last night and this morning. Central pressure is a bit high (1014mb), but so is ambient pressure in the region.

[gatorcane]

Here is a nice VIS loop showing the circulation and structure improving by the hour.

Still moving south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

Reading the NHC discussion. They are not to impressed with 98L or should I say the models are not to impressed with 98L. Looks like some needed rain for Florida but at this time no watches or warnings. But as we know in the tropics. Things could change fast.

[Aric Dunn]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.

Agreed on the TD except I dont think the NHC will upgrade with winds barely a 20mph. but technically its a TD

I think winds are probably 25-30 kts now in convection south and east of the center. Problem is all obs in the area are on the outer perimeter of the convection, not where winds are likely the strongest. ASCAT passes precisely missed this area last night and this morning. Central pressure is a bit high (1014mb), but so is ambient pressure in the region.

yeah thats quite possible. I think the weak LLC is a little more stacked than the last best track. which means we could see a little more intensification than initial model runs

[Blown Away]

Here is a nice VIS loop showing the circulation and structure improving by the hour.

Still moving south.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

In the last few frames it looks like the southward drift has continued. I notice the recent burst of convection NNW of the circulation center, if it maintains it might signal the NW shear is reducing.

[Janie2006]

Thanks for the update WxMan. Things will get interesting needless to say if it moves WSW and ends up in the SE GOM. Good news is that the southern half of the Florida peninsula would finally get its "drought buster." Not so good news is what will happen in the GOM?

Right now it is difficult to say where it goes. I would think if it deepens more quickly it can get pulled to the NE as there is a weakness at 200MB-300MB level there looking at the GFS/NAM 06Z.

Yep. The current model tendency to pull it NE isn't surprising, especially on the GFS. OTOH, if it acts like an Aunt Jemima syrup commercial and oozes to the south, slow and sweet, taking its time to develop, that's another story entirely. All bets would be off, IMO....at least until we can get recon in there and get a few things settled.

[plasticup]

It's curious how poorly the models are initializing here. They (mostly) all have a minimal TS dawdling off the coast for a while before picking a direction. But weak steering currents are often unpredictable, and large deviations are very possible.

Sadly enough though...it appears alot of ppl have left storm2k over the past year or two...it's sad.

One major US threat and we'll be swimming in new accounts. It happens every time.

[gatorcane]

Wind shear tendency showing the shear is lessening around Florida, Bahamas, and Gulf of Mexico as noted by the deep blue shading:

[SFLcane]

[jinftl]

I guess it isn't so surprising that there is such disparity between models as to whether this will even develop, where it will go, etc....until (and if) a LLC is established, the models really don't have a solid basis from which to initiate from.

This is still an invest...of course recon could find otherwise. But how many invests have had scheduled recons cancelled or postponed at the last minute too? Sometimes satellite images can give the impression there is more out there than there really is...esp when you add in some pretty colors to depict convection. The question is, is this system organizing or just a sheared mess?

It will be an interesting Sunday for sure...this could go either way.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess it isn't so surprising that there is such disparity between models as to whether this will even develop, where it will go, etc....until (and if) a LLC is established, the models really don't have a solid basis from which to initiate from.

This is still an invest...of course recon could find otherwise. But how many invests have had scheduled recons cancelled or postponed at the last minute too? Sometimes satellite images can give the impression there is more out there than there really is...esp when you add in some pretty colors to depict convection. The question is, is this system organizing or just a sheared mess?

It will be an interesting Sunday for sure...this could go either way.

I can tell you a couple things... the shear is not strong enough to decouple the system.... and there is plenty of surface obs saying there is a closed low... also the models are having a hard time especially the global models becasue the system is very small.. the tropical models are doing much better with it

[Blown Away]

12z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

Kinda looks like consolidation near 281N/78W, a little farther east.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Here is a plot of all systems that have developed/passed within 65NM of latest Best Track coordinates for 98L:

In this case I chose just the month of July. Members can visit this link and try their own set of parameters. The site has been improved over the past year:

http://csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#