ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[Vortex]

Note that the GFDL is now taking it west to western Cuba as a Cat 5 in 5 days. That means it's in the camp of the Canadian, UKMET and ECMWF ensembles vs. the Florida peninsula threat.

For the past week it didn't even develop Irene and now it wants to CAT 5 it.

I'm waiting for 00z suites...

There is a very good reason that the GFDL dropped 97L after 0 or 6 hours for the past few days. The GFDL was upgraded in 2011 with a new convective scheme. This should significantly improve track forecasts. However, the downside is that it is now VERY sluggish in initiating convection compared to the pre-2011 model. Prior to the recent run, the model saw a less-than-ideal environment ahead of 97L which caused the disturbance to struggle. This caused the program to shut down immediately rather than carry the disturbance PAST the unfavorable environment where it would likely develop. Now that the environment ahead of Irene is more favorable for development, the GFDL run can complete through 126 hours.

And THAT's why the GFDL lost 97L the past few days.

57,

In your opinion, do you consider this to be a significant threat to southern florida?

[JtSmarts]

From what I see on the map, it looks like Irene is north enough for it to skirt over the top of the islands. Just from a random observer viewpoint.

Most of the convection might, but with a more northern center it seems like Irene has a greater chance of heading down the spine of the DR.

[jinftl]

Per Dr. Jeff Masters blog this evening:

"Irene most reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives."


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1888

[Blown Away]

If Irene intensifies/deepens sooner than expected will the cause more poleward response? Wow she looks good tonight!

[SFLcane]

With center relocation it might have an impact on the models.

[ozonepete]

Per Dr. Jeff Masters blog this evening:

"Irene most reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives."


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1888

Wow. First time I've ever not agreed with Dr. Masters. Irene's path over Hispaniola could be very different.

[jinftl]

A track 100 miles north or south of Fay's over Hispanola could be the difference between a Fay and something much more menacing...folks wanted suspense and excitment...bam, we got it with Irene!!!

Per Dr. Jeff Masters blog this evening:

"Irene most reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. Fay formed just off the coast of Puerto Rico, and was never quite able to get organized enough to become a hurricane, due to passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. Fay topped out as a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds, and did over $500 million in damage in the U.S., mostly due to flooding rains in Florida that accumulated to over 25 inches in a few areas. Fay also dumped heavy rains on Hispaniola, triggering flooding that claimed eight lives."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1888

Wow. First time I've ever not agreed with Dr. Masters. Irene's path over Hispaniola could be very different.

[ronjon]

Fay, the classic example of Tampa's deflector shield. Let's hope its powered up in 5 days.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Everyone from se Louisiana to se Florida needs to keep an eye on this

I wouldn't discount the east coast just yet.

[jinftl]

Any indications pressure is dropping? The 7pm reading is pretty high...we need to see that drop below 993mb range before this would be approaching hurricane intensity (rough estimate of highest minimum pressure needed for a hurricane made by a non-expert, i.e., me)

minimum central pressure...1006 mb...29.71 inches

[Gustywind]

IR...ENE

[ronjon]

Irene could pull a Cleo too.

[ozonepete]

Everyone from se Louisiana to se Florida needs to keep an eye on this

I wouldn't discount the east coast just yet.

Would be foolish to do so.

[Aric Dunn]

Irene could pull a Cleo too.

now that looks more similar to present model consensus

[psyclone]

Fay, the classic example of Tampa's deflector shield. Let's hope its powered up in 5 days.

it was. i got no rain from fay yet all areas in either direction from west central fl got crushed. remember the flooding in brevard county? wow. i'm counting on the deflector shield working. it usually does. but the models have been wanting to at least bring our coast something from irene so we'll see. i just don't want a damaging wind event that causes power outages. heavy rain is no problem in my area.

[bella_may]

Irene could pull a Cleo too.

now that looks more similar to present model consensus

That's too far east IMO

[ozonepete]

Irene could pull a Cleo too.

now that looks more similar to present model consensus

That's too far east IMO

That's well within the cone.

[Adoquín]

looking at the long loop its does appear to be reforming farther north .... near 16N

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?116

a hell of a lot percent multipled by 16N. I am going to try to find that early model which showed a big hit on Guadalupe, big as jn hurricane big if I also I recall correctly and into the Mona Channel afer hitting us.

[ROCK]

whats with the blob to the SW? looks like another LLC trying to form and circulating around a broader circulation....


nevermind...its breaking off and dying....

[madinina]

Hi,
Here, it's very quiet. Last weather report in TV said it's just rain and a little wind for martinique, for the end of the night, more like tropical wave. The worst is for Guadeloupe and Dominique. Take care Gusty.