ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261858
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 27 20111026
184830 1740N 08524W 6968 03129 //// +092 //// 191046 047 043 002 01
184900 1742N 08526W 6966 03128 0015 +100 +058 196046 047 043 002 00
184930 1743N 08527W 6967 03122 0008 +102 +057 198049 050 043 002 00
185000 1745N 08529W 6966 03119 9991 +111 +056 205053 054 043 001 03
185030 1746N 08530W 6967 03112 9976 +117 +057 205056 056 048 001 03
185100 1748N 08531W 6966 03111 9962 +126 +058 208050 051 050 001 00
185130 1750N 08532W 6966 03101 9946 +131 +060 211052 052 052 001 03
185200 1752N 08533W 6969 03092 9945 +126 +063 209053 055 054 000 00
185230 1754N 08534W 6972 03081 9924 +136 +065 200056 058 056 000 03
185300 1755N 08534W 6970 03073 9901 +145 +067 201061 063 056 000 03
185330 1756N 08536W 6976 03051 9882 +149 +070 197059 059 055 001 00
185400 1757N 08538W 6974 03038 9850 +165 +074 195046 050 052 001 03
185430 1758N 08539W 6969 03044 9837 +170 +078 216033 043 039 001 00
185500 1759N 08541W 6962 03044 9816 +182 +082 243034 038 036 001 03
185530 1800N 08542W 6954 03040 9819 +168 +087 239023 031 040 001 03
185600 1802N 08543W 6973 03015 9804 +178 +091 232014 016 042 003 00
185630 1803N 08544W 6957 03027 9786 +187 +094 194010 011 042 001 03
185700 1804N 08545W 6976 02999 9787 +181 +098 151009 010 042 002 03
185730 1805N 08547W 6963 03019 9827 +146 +101 078017 019 039 001 03
185800 1806N 08549W 6962 03011 9814 +152 +101 062024 027 054 005 03

Extrapolated pressure: 979
Max wind speed SE quadrant: flight level 63 kt, SFMR 56 kt

[Evil Jeremy]

Another victory for the Euro.

Not really, it never intensified Rina the way she did actually it killed Rina run after run even though she was strengthening.

But Euro never showed Rina surviving after Yucatan. That's what it's looking like right now. Looks like Euro nailed the end result.

[Ntxw]

I think this is a good case where you can take results from both sides. The tropical models did better on her intensity and development while closer to the tropics with less pattern to work with, but became less reliable as she gained latitude. Once you get into the region away from the tropics with more westerly influence, Euro takes over.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261908
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 28 20111026
185830 1807N 08551W 6967 03010 9851 +125 +098 068037 044 065 012 00
185900 1808N 08552W 6952 03042 9905 +089 //// 076056 058 073 020 01
185930 1810N 08554W 6959 03050 9948 +073 //// 073069 073 078 031 01
190000 1811N 08555W 6977 03054 9988 +066 +059 060069 073 077 043 03
190030 1812N 08556W 6970 03060 9984 +069 +043 064067 071 068 056 03
190100 1814N 08558W 6954 03088 0002 +063 +033 065056 063 071 036 03
190130 1815N 08559W 6984 03065 0013 +064 +055 065058 066 068 026 00
190200 1816N 08600W 6963 03094 9995 +079 //// 064064 065 060 019 01
190230 1818N 08602W 6970 03089 9996 +082 //// 069064 065 056 013 01
190300 1819N 08603W 6964 03101 9989 +090 //// 072062 063 054 007 01
190330 1821N 08605W 6966 03107 0009 +081 //// 074061 062 051 007 01
190400 1822N 08606W 6977 03099 //// +077 //// 074056 060 052 006 01
190430 1823N 08608W 6958 03127 0014 +088 //// 074050 051 050 006 01
190500 1825N 08609W 6971 03120 //// +073 //// 072051 053 049 006 01
190530 1826N 08610W 6972 03122 //// +062 //// 069049 051 048 009 01
190600 1827N 08612W 6966 03133 //// +056 //// 070043 045 047 014 01
190630 1829N 08613W 6967 03134 //// +069 //// 064043 044 044 006 01
190700 1830N 08615W 6970 03137 0040 +084 //// 052038 041 044 005 01
190730 1831N 08616W 6969 03139 0045 +075 //// 052038 040 044 005 01
190800 1833N 08617W 6966 03144 0044 +086 //// 054037 040 044 003 01

Max wind speed outbound NW: flight level 73 kt, SFMR 78 kt

[HenkL]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 261911
XXAA 76197 99180 70856 04585 99987 27007 13052 00621 ///// /////
92569 24210 16063 85313 23850 17557 70997 19462 19042 88999 77999
31313 09608 81854
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 13
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1804N08564W 1859 MBL WND 14564 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 17056 986697 WL150 13563 084 REL 1795N08563W 185359 SPG 1804N0
8564W 185924 =
XXBB 76198 99180 70856 04585 00987 27007 11936 24407 22850 23850
33736 18256 44721 18258 55709 20664 66697 18861
21212 00987 13052 11972 14069 22964 14062 33957 15068 44941 15567
55931 16062 66890 16555 77850 17557 88719 20058 99697 19037
31313 09608 81854
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 13
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1804N08564W 1859 MBL WND 14564 AEV 20802 DLM W
ND 17056 986697 WL150 13563 084 REL 1795N08563W 185359 SPG 1804N0
8564W 185924 =
;

Sonde found 52 knots at sea level

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This storm really did intensify quickly, but is now being shredded apart. Wxman57 you have done really well
with these past several systems. I have to say kudos to you.

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KNHC 261914
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/18:57:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
085 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2967 m
D. 56 kt
E. 131 deg 14 nm
F. 202 deg 63 kt
G. 129 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 978 mb
I. 15 C / 3049 m
J. 19 C / 3060 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C17
N. 1235 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 18:59:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 140 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 985MB AND 24KT SFC WINDS
;

[HenkL]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 261915
XXAA 76197 99181 70858 04585 99985 27200 09024 00639 ///// /////
92553 24000 10531 85293 20800 11525 70962 16056 09515 88999 77999
31313 09608 81857
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08581W 1901 MBL WND 10531 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11
026 984696 WL150 10032 084 REL 1808N08578W 185718 SPG 1809N08581W
190145 =
XXBB 76198 99181 70858 04585 00985 27200 11850 20800 22791 17608
33731 17056 44696 15656
21212 00985 09024 11979 10032 22969 11033 33866 11030 44850 11525
55767 12521 66739 10023 77708 10519 88696 09014
31313 09608 81857
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 14
62626 EYE SPL 1809N08581W 1901 MBL WND 10531 AEV 20802 DLM WND 11
026 984696 WL150 10032 084 REL 1808N08578W 185718 SPG 1809N08581W
190145 =
;

000
UZNT13 KNHC 261916
XXAA 76197 99182 70859 04585 99992 25006 36073 00568 ///// /////
92617 22012 01578 85350 18200 03077 70003 09401 06567 88999 77999
31313 09608 81859
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 15
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1810N08595W 1904 MBL WND 01084 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 03072 992696 WL150 00584 083 REL 1817N08590W 185941 SPG 181
0N08595W 190359 =
XXBB 76198 99182 70859 04585 00992 25006 11850 18200 22704 12402
33696 06400
21212 00992 36073 11986 00586 22969 01084 33963 01087 44938 01578
55919 02078 66909 02074 77889 02080 88878 02576 99850 03077 11748
04570 22696 07069
31313 09608 81859
61616 AF304 0818A RINA OB 15
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 1810N08595W 1904 MBL WND 01084 AEV 20802 DL
M WND 03072 992696 WL150 00584 083 REL 1817N08590W 185941 SPG 181
0N08595W 190359 =
;


Dropsonde a: pressure 985 (with 24 kt wind)
Dropsonde b: 73 kt wind in eyewall

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261928
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 30 20111026
191830 1900N 08646W 6972 03155 0082 +078 +040 068036 037 028 001 00
191900 1902N 08647W 6962 03167 0074 +084 +039 069036 036 028 002 00
191930 1903N 08648W 6969 03159 0080 +079 +038 071036 036 030 000 00
192000 1904N 08650W 6971 03157 0086 +076 +038 072034 036 028 001 00
192030 1906N 08651W 6963 03167 0081 +080 +036 071036 036 028 001 00
192100 1907N 08653W 6969 03161 0081 +081 +036 074037 037 029 001 00
192130 1908N 08654W 6969 03162 0080 +083 +035 076037 037 029 002 00
192200 1910N 08655W 6967 03165 0085 +080 +035 076034 035 029 002 00
192230 1911N 08657W 6967 03166 0087 +080 +034 077034 035 029 001 00
192300 1912N 08658W 6969 03165 0088 +080 +034 076032 033 030 001 00
192330 1914N 08700W 6957 03179 0086 +080 +034 077034 035 029 001 00
192400 1915N 08701W 6970 03166 0089 +081 +033 078035 035 030 000 00
192430 1917N 08703W 6966 03172 0085 +085 +030 076032 033 029 001 00
192500 1918N 08704W 6967 03170 0086 +084 +028 078029 031 027 001 00
192530 1920N 08706W 6968 03171 0086 +084 +026 072026 027 029 001 00
192600 1921N 08707W 6967 03170 0085 +085 +026 065027 028 028 000 03
192630 1922N 08710W 6964 03173 0092 +078 +026 064026 027 /// /// 03
192700 1920N 08711W 6964 03172 0095 +075 +028 064023 024 027 000 03
192730 1918N 08710W 6973 03164 0092 +080 +029 065022 023 027 000 00
192800 1916N 08710W 6969 03167 0088 +082 +030 067022 023 028 000 00

[tolakram]

Well, watch out for the small storm comeback attempt.

000
URNT12 KNHC 261914
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/18:57:10Z
B. 18 deg 05 min N
085 deg 46 min W
C. 700 mb 2967 m
D. 56 kt
E. 131 deg 14 nm
F. 202 deg 63 kt
G. 129 deg 13 nm
H. EXTRAP 978 mb
I. 15 C / 3049 m
J. 19 C / 3060 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. OPEN S
M. C17
N. 1235 / 7
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 12
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 18:59:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 140 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 985MB AND 24KT SFC WINDS
;

Now reporting eyewall exists and open to the south.

[tobol.7uno]

[psyclone]

I've always said, as damaging as hurricanes can be, they're extremely fragile. If the environment isn't just right, they fall apart very quickly. Rina is demonstrating that.

this cannot be emphasized enough. I refer to hurricanes as an atmospheric house of cards. if you yank one thing from the equation these things fall apart. and thank goodness that's the case. so many make the mistake of thinking warm water = hurricanes but that is just the base foundation. otherwise we would have these things all the time. look at the gulf. it is bathwater for a third of the year and yet many hurricane seasons feature little or no activity there. the idea that this system would present a meaningful threat to florida was pretty far fetched from day one. it just wasn't in the cards.

[tolakram]

25 frame live visible loop, speed up for full effect

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Note the waves heading south and east in the upper levels. Neat looking, no idea what they are. pro met?

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261938
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 31 20111026
192830 1914N 08710W 6967 03168 0082 +085 +030 068025 027 028 001 00
192900 1912N 08710W 6968 03167 0082 +085 +030 065027 027 028 001 03
192930 1910N 08710W 6967 03167 0086 +081 +030 066027 028 028 001 00
193000 1908N 08710W 6967 03167 0091 +077 +029 065027 027 028 001 00
193030 1906N 08711W 6969 03165 0092 +075 +028 062027 027 027 002 00
193100 1904N 08711W 6966 03168 0094 +075 +026 059026 026 029 000 00
193130 1902N 08711W 6966 03166 0094 +074 +023 059026 026 029 000 00
193200 1859N 08711W 6971 03160 0097 +073 +021 060026 027 028 001 00
193230 1857N 08711W 6964 03168 0096 +075 +018 061028 029 027 002 00
193300 1855N 08711W 6971 03160 0093 +075 +017 061029 029 027 001 00
193330 1853N 08711W 6963 03168 0096 +070 +015 058029 029 028 001 00
193400 1851N 08711W 6969 03160 0095 +072 +012 057028 028 028 001 00
193430 1849N 08711W 6969 03160 0099 +068 +011 052027 027 030 001 00
193500 1847N 08711W 6963 03166 0098 +068 +011 053027 028 028 001 00
193530 1845N 08711W 6970 03157 0095 +073 +011 053030 030 027 001 00
193600 1843N 08711W 6969 03160 0095 +070 +009 051030 031 028 001 00
193630 1841N 08711W 6963 03165 0093 +070 +008 051031 032 028 002 00
193700 1838N 08711W 6971 03155 0093 +070 +007 051033 034 029 001 00
193730 1836N 08711W 6963 03162 0090 +070 +007 051034 034 028 000 00
193800 1834N 08711W 6969 03155 0093 +070 +009 050034 034 028 001 00

[adam0983]

Bones this Hurrican Rina is a stubborn one she is coming back to life. The eye is now visible and she is trying to reorganize. Scotty beem me to her position so I can analyze her position.

[tobol.7uno]

Core is starting to look a little better now. Microwave imagery still shows a defined eye possibly open to the southeast.

Microwave imagery shows an eye reformation?(See the loop)... http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_18L/webManager/last24hrs.gif

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261948
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 32 20111026
193830 1832N 08711W 6963 03161 0096 +065 +010 046033 033 027 001 00
193900 1830N 08711W 6972 03152 0097 +065 +011 043033 034 028 001 00
193930 1828N 08711W 6969 03156 0096 +065 +012 042034 034 029 001 00
194000 1825N 08711W 6962 03163 0095 +065 +014 042035 035 029 001 00
194030 1823N 08711W 6969 03154 0095 +065 +016 042035 035 029 001 00
194100 1821N 08711W 6964 03160 0092 +067 +017 041037 038 031 001 00
194130 1819N 08711W 6966 03156 0088 +070 +018 041036 038 031 001 00
194200 1817N 08711W 6975 03144 0090 +068 +020 042037 037 032 000 00
194230 1814N 08711W 6968 03155 0089 +070 +018 039035 036 033 001 00
194300 1812N 08711W 6966 03156 0086 +070 +021 036032 032 031 001 03
194330 1810N 08710W 6963 03158 0085 +070 +023 037030 031 /// /// 03
194400 1810N 08708W 6971 03150 0087 +070 +025 039030 031 031 001 00
194430 1810N 08707W 6962 03161 0085 +070 +026 039030 031 030 001 00
194500 1810N 08705W 6969 03150 0085 +071 +027 039032 033 030 002 03
194530 1810N 08703W 6970 03149 0088 +067 +029 041032 033 030 000 00
194600 1810N 08701W 6962 03158 0093 +063 +029 038034 035 031 001 00
194630 1810N 08659W 6969 03151 0096 +060 +028 038034 035 030 001 00
194700 1810N 08657W 6967 03152 0096 +060 +027 037035 036 029 001 00
194730 1810N 08655W 6978 03139 0102 +055 +028 028032 034 029 002 00
194800 1810N 08654W 6968 03149 0101 +052 +040 025034 036 029 001 00

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 261958
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 33 20111026
194830 1810N 08652W 6972 03143 0097 +055 +048 022033 033 028 002 00
194900 1810N 08650W 6967 03150 0097 +054 +050 021034 035 029 001 00
194930 1810N 08648W 6965 03149 0096 +053 +046 020035 036 030 000 00
195000 1810N 08647W 6968 03145 0074 +070 +042 017030 032 031 001 00
195030 1810N 08645W 6973 03139 0062 +079 +045 020031 033 030 001 00
195100 1810N 08643W 6967 03141 0052 +084 +045 026034 035 030 002 00
195130 1810N 08641W 6966 03144 0050 +087 +044 028033 033 033 002 00
195200 1810N 08640W 6964 03145 0053 +083 +043 022032 032 034 000 00
195230 1810N 08638W 6975 03134 0057 +082 +042 017032 033 034 001 00
195300 1810N 08636W 6963 03149 0060 +080 +042 015033 035 036 002 00
195330 1810N 08634W 6969 03143 0056 +084 +040 015033 033 037 001 00
195400 1810N 08633W 6966 03144 0063 +077 +040 012034 035 037 002 00
195430 1810N 08631W 6967 03140 0062 +076 +039 008033 034 037 002 00
195500 1810N 08629W 6966 03139 0049 +083 +042 013036 038 036 003 00
195530 1810N 08627W 6966 03135 0039 +088 +046 018039 040 041 002 00
195600 1810N 08626W 6965 03135 0040 +085 +050 016034 035 041 004 00
195630 1810N 08624W 6967 03128 0041 +079 +057 011030 033 044 007 00
195700 1810N 08622W 6967 03126 0050 +067 //// 019039 042 043 009 01
195730 1810N 08620W 6962 03122 //// +062 //// 029038 040 046 007 01
195800 1810N 08619W 6967 03115 0020 +077 //// 024035 037 048 007 01

Nearing center from the west.

[tobol.7uno]

http://img854.imageshack.us/img854/3353/18701621.jpg

[fci]

I've always said, as damaging as hurricanes can be, they're extremely fragile. If the environment isn't just right, they fall apart very quickly. Rina is demonstrating that.

this cannot be emphasized enough. I refer to hurricanes as an atmospheric house of cards. if you yank one thing from the equation these things fall apart. and thank goodness that's the case. so many make the mistake of thinking warm water = hurricanes but that is just the base foundation. otherwise we would have these things all the time. look at the gulf. it is bathwater for a third of the year and yet many hurricane seasons feature little or no activity there. the idea that this system would present a meaningful threat to florida was pretty far fetched from day one. it just wasn't in the cards.

Absolutely true, however; people still have keen memories of Wilma and given the fragility of the tropics, we had to keep a watchful eye on Rina even if the odds were stacked against her ever getting here in a meaningful way.

Plus, while we play the "results" and are genius' after the fact (a little premature to say Rina is gone yet, but it looks that way); JB had this storm as a Cat 1 coming to South Florida as late as yesterday. While we can tease about his predictions, we cannot discount the knowledge the man has which means this wasn't necessarily always "not in the cards".