ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[South Texas Storms]

Jumping on the "system isn't moving bandwagon?" HA. Never a question.

I question your "LLC is relocating, so this system isn't going where it's supposed to me going."

Don't make me pull up old threads were you question the EURO.

yes I admit there was a time when I was a GFS hugger....It took WX Warrior to bring me over to the dark side of the EURO.....for that I can razz on you too much....

Actually Rock I gotta admit too that I was a GFS hugger just last year. But after the GFS busted on Alex last year and then you, KFDM Met, and Wx Warrior all helped me to make the switch to the good side.

[Wx_Warrior]

Blob is a mess in the GOM. Needs a true LLC for ANY model to get a GOOD handle. Night.

[ROCK]

0z Euro initializes too far north.

trash it I am going to bed... ..timing is everything with this...center further south means less influence from the 1st trof....building high that eventually slides east and 13 gets picked up by the 2nd.....

[ROCK]

Blob is a mess in the GOM. Needs a true LLC for ANY model to get a GOOD handle. Night.

words of wisdom....I heading out also...

[supercane]

Lacking recon, here was the latest ASCAT from about 3 hours ago, showing a broad, somewhat elongated circulation perhaps a bit south of NHC's position but definitely without current evidence to suggest a relocation much farther to the SE:

(edited to fix image)

[Sean in New Orleans]

Ouch...looks like we have a Cat. 1 forming that will land in Atchafalaya Bay Sunday morning...wow...this is going to dump almost 2 feet of rain on New Orleans....makes me disappointed....I like to have a little fun on Labor Day weekened. Oh well....home with the dogs is always comfortable....just hope it isn't in the dark....Hey...this is serious. No Katrina, but, the rain issue is almost unprecedented....watch closely. WATCH the moisture with this system. That is the issue.......

[Rainband]

Ouch...looks like we have a Cat. 1 forming that will land in Atchafalaya Bay Sunday morning...wow...this is going to dump almost 2 feet of rain on New Orleans....makes me disappointed....I like to have a little fun on Labor Day weekened. Oh well....home with the dogs is always comfortable....just hope it isn't in the dark....Hey...this is serious. No Katrina, but, the rain issue is almost unprecedented....watch closely. WATCH the moisture with this system. That is the issue.......

stay safe but from what I am reading I think a lot will change if this misses the first trof and the center relocated.

[maxintensity]

tonights model runs are more encouraging and show a solution thats much better than had been feared. Euro is quicker inland and weaker. This combined with Katia trending east and we have a pretty good night for the USA

[supercane]

00Z ECMWF:
Day 0:

Day 1:

Day 2:

Day 3:

Day 4:

Day 5:

Day 6:

(for rest up to day 10, see Katia thread)

[cyclogenesis]

September 2, 2011
this Pre-Dawn Friday morning
237 AM CDT


Gang ~~ I have placed a NEW weather writing on to my website at 225 AM, Pre-Dawn Friday morning, 9/2, which details the flood threat & heavy rainfall for Southeast Louisiana. It can be found at this weblink address appearing below:



http://cvamagic.tripod.com/






-- cyclogenesis

[Rainband]

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
326 am EDT Friday Sep 2 2011


Short term (today through sunday)...
Tropical Depression Thirteen is currently about 240 nm southwest of
the mouth of the Mississippi River. A surface ridge of high pressure
extends along the East Coast and down into the Florida Peninsula. At the
middle/upper levels...a large ridge is centered over the Great Lakes
down into the western Gulf Coast states. This middle/upper ridge will
keep the depression from going anywhere any time soon...and in fact
it is nearly stationary now based on the latest data from NHC. The
forecast for US this weekend will be highly dependent on where the
cyclone actually tracks...slightly further eastward and our probability of precipitation
will need to be significantly increased. But with the current
track...the heavier precipitation will likely remain offshore/near the
coast this weekend. Have adjusted probability of precipitation slightly for the period to
reflect this...but have maintained scattered probability of precipitation for all areas due
to some uncertainty with the system. Temperatures will be a degree or so
below normal regardless of the track...with continued cloud cover
over the area through the weekend.


Long term (sunday night through thursday)...
not a solid consensus for the evolution of td13. Only common
scenario in guidance is to bring increasing winds across the eastern
Gulf waters and western Florida regardless of the eventual solution for
early next week. With all the uncertainty between models...will
refrain from incorporating significant changes to inherited forecast
package and start with GFS for winds but capping speeds to around 20
knots. Will also keep probability of precipitation in the scattered range for now. However...
with the prevailing weak high pressure across the area migrating
eastward and td13 potential strengthening it is likely that chances
of rain for the beginning of next week will be raised.


With low pressure to our west and the high departing to our east...
synoptic flow will increase with southerly winds remaining in place
through much of the long term period.


Expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s...and morning
lows the middle to upper 70s.


&&


Aviation...
light winds continue through the middle morning hours...then increasing
to around 10 kts during the early afternoon hours from the E/se.
Cloud cover remains in place through much of the taf period...but
generally VFR ceilings. However...periods of IFR/LIFR ceilings are possible
over fmy and rsw until sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will again
develop near the taf sites in the afternoon and through the early
evening hours.


&&


Marine...
winds remain easterly around 10 to 15 knots today. By tomorrow
however...the forecast will be highly dependent on where Tropical
Depression Thirteen will track and how much it is able to intensify
this weekend. The current track from NHC takes the storm very slowly
up to the central Louisiana coast late Saturday into Sunday. Not a
great consensus between models however so marine interests should
monitor the latest forecasts as there could be large changes in the
winds even as far as our coastal waters with any type of deviation
from the current track. For now...winds look to increase to around
15 knots on Saturday and into the 15 to 20 knot range by Sunday.
Seas steadily increase throughout the weekend as well. These
conditions will likely continue through at least Tuesday of next
week as the system begins to move northeast (but still very
slowly)...keeping a tight pressure gradient over the eastern Gulf.


&&


Fire weather...
ample moisture remains over the area through at least the middle of
next week keeping humidities well above critical thresholds.


&&


Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 89 73 90 75 / 30 20 40 30
fmy 89 72 90 75 / 40 30 40 30
gif 91 70 90 72 / 30 20 30 20
srq 89 73 89 75 / 40 30 40 30
bkv 90 69 90 72 / 30 20 30 30
spg 87 75 88 78 / 40 20 40 30


&&


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...none.
Gulf waters...none.


&&


$$


Short term/marine/fire weather...23/McNatt
long term/aviation...22/reynes

[ronjon]

A very broad elongated east-west low pressure now located on the western edge of convection. Big blow-up of convection south of NO may be the spark the tightens and pulls the center a little eastward. Stationary now with an UL anticyclone starting to build overtop - will be an interesting weekend. Future Lee isn't going anywhere in a hurry.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[MBryant]

I know it's poor form to wish for a hit from a tropical system, but I'm wishing it moves further west than the model indicates. We need a prolonged rain maker in Texas, even if it's accompanied by flooding. I live in extreme Southeast Texas, but I'd prefer to be on the eastern edge rather than the western edge so more of Texas gets relief.

I see higher pressure toward South Texas, but the isobars look pretty thin to the immediate west. Does this offer me some hope of a more westerly path?

[Nederlander]

I know it's poor form to wish for a hit from a tropical system, but I'm wishing it moves further west than the model indicates. We need a prolonged rain maker in Texas, even if it's accompanied by flooding. I live in extreme Southeast Texas, but I'd prefer to be on the eastern edge rather than the western edge so more of Texas gets relief.

I see higher pressure toward South Texas, but the isobars look pretty thin to the immediate west. Does this offer me some hope of a more westerly path?

We are going to need a center relocation to the south. This is our best bet for significant rain, IMO. Its going to have to miss this trough and then ride the southern edge of the ridge. Lots of "what-ifs" so for now I'm gonna put stock in the NHC until we have a new center and the models shift. 12z models may tell us a lot more..

[Nimbus]

That would be great for Texas if thirteen would miss the trough. There would be so much dry air intrusion before landfall that it probably would not develop beyond a TS. The naked LLC appears to be south of 27N but it isn't drifting south much, looks like more of a westerly creep in the IR imagery.
That could be an illusion as the shear decreases this morning the convection will build west back over the LLC.

[Meso]

Really looks to be organizing in the past 4 or 5 frames on the loop, compared to last night. So far that convective blow up has continued. If it manages to sustain itself it could get very interesting.

[caneman]

None of the models are taking this East right? Are we in the clear in West Florida. Hoping for a nice LAbor Day weekend.

[tailgater]

Looking at the RAMDIS sat loop it seems the center is just east of this buoy and moving slightlk west.

[caneman]

Where is the buoy located?

[pwrdog]

It sure looks like the best LLC is near 28n-92w and moving WNW..? as of 9:45 UTC..

It's hard to tell untill we get a vis sat picture in a few hours..