ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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URNT15 KNHC 262008
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 34 20111026
195830 1810N 08617W 6967 03110 0000 +091 //// 017039 043 051 008 01
195900 1810N 08615W 6971 03093 9995 +087 //// 023044 046 053 008 01
195930 1810N 08614W 6969 03089 //// +075 //// 024045 046 053 009 01
200000 1810N 08612W 6967 03084 //// +079 //// 024038 042 057 010 01
200030 1810N 08610W 6965 03085 9959 +099 //// 026032 037 061 016 01
200100 1810N 08608W 6968 03076 9956 +086 //// 019042 048 071 032 01
200130 1810N 08607W 6972 03060 //// +070 //// 029054 057 072 040 01
200200 1810N 08605W 6978 03043 //// +070 //// 029062 072 070 053 01
200230 1810N 08604W 6939 03070 //// +067 //// 031072 077 076 040 05
200300 1810N 08602W 6978 03014 //// +077 //// 044062 068 076 033 05
200330 1809N 08601W 6986 02991 //// +092 //// 025049 051 076 024 01
200400 1809N 08559W 6970 02993 9821 +133 +126 005039 045 074 013 03
200430 1808N 08557W 6952 03005 9796 +146 +125 353022 025 047 003 03
200500 1808N 08555W 6962 02983 9776 +156 +121 299010 014 032 002 03
200530 1809N 08554W 6955 02992 9788 +145 +117 113007 015 035 003 03
200600 1811N 08553W 6973 02970 9799 +137 +116 110021 024 054 004 03
200630 1812N 08553W 6972 02983 9818 +129 +116 101039 041 069 003 00
200700 1814N 08552W 6967 02995 9842 +115 +115 107048 052 073 005 00
200730 1815N 08551W 6963 03014 9860 +112 //// 116063 071 071 004 01
200800 1817N 08550W 6969 03020 9884 +106 //// 120073 076 070 005 01
Extrapolated pressure: 978
Max winds: flight level 77 kt, SFMR 76 kt
URNT15 KNHC 262008
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 34 20111026
195830 1810N 08617W 6967 03110 0000 +091 //// 017039 043 051 008 01
195900 1810N 08615W 6971 03093 9995 +087 //// 023044 046 053 008 01
195930 1810N 08614W 6969 03089 //// +075 //// 024045 046 053 009 01
200000 1810N 08612W 6967 03084 //// +079 //// 024038 042 057 010 01
200030 1810N 08610W 6965 03085 9959 +099 //// 026032 037 061 016 01
200100 1810N 08608W 6968 03076 9956 +086 //// 019042 048 071 032 01
200130 1810N 08607W 6972 03060 //// +070 //// 029054 057 072 040 01
200200 1810N 08605W 6978 03043 //// +070 //// 029062 072 070 053 01
200230 1810N 08604W 6939 03070 //// +067 //// 031072 077 076 040 05
200300 1810N 08602W 6978 03014 //// +077 //// 044062 068 076 033 05
200330 1809N 08601W 6986 02991 //// +092 //// 025049 051 076 024 01
200400 1809N 08559W 6970 02993 9821 +133 +126 005039 045 074 013 03
200430 1808N 08557W 6952 03005 9796 +146 +125 353022 025 047 003 03
200500 1808N 08555W 6962 02983 9776 +156 +121 299010 014 032 002 03
200530 1809N 08554W 6955 02992 9788 +145 +117 113007 015 035 003 03
200600 1811N 08553W 6973 02970 9799 +137 +116 110021 024 054 004 03
200630 1812N 08553W 6972 02983 9818 +129 +116 101039 041 069 003 00
200700 1814N 08552W 6967 02995 9842 +115 +115 107048 052 073 005 00
200730 1815N 08551W 6963 03014 9860 +112 //// 116063 071 071 004 01
200800 1817N 08550W 6969 03020 9884 +106 //// 120073 076 070 005 01
Extrapolated pressure: 978
Max winds: flight level 77 kt, SFMR 76 kt
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
I was watching a new NASA video shot of Rina from the International Space station when something caught my eye 40 seconds into the video:
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogal ... =117573741
Remember the Twilight zone episode "Terror at 10,000ft" with William Shatner? Later re-made as "Terror at 30,000 ft". How about "Terror at 225 miles"?
What's that walking around outside the ISS??

http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/videogal ... =117573741
Remember the Twilight zone episode "Terror at 10,000ft" with William Shatner? Later re-made as "Terror at 30,000 ft". How about "Terror at 225 miles"?
What's that walking around outside the ISS??

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URNT15 KNHC 262018
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 35 20111026
200830 1818N 08549W 6971 03030 9906 +100 //// 118075 076 066 004 01
200900 1820N 08548W 6960 03053 9922 +094 //// 120075 076 065 004 01
200930 1821N 08547W 6974 03045 9938 +091 //// 117075 076 065 005 01
201000 1823N 08546W 6970 03058 9947 +090 //// 119077 078 062 005 01
201030 1824N 08545W 6965 03073 9964 +086 //// 121078 079 059 004 01
201100 1825N 08545W 6968 03078 9977 +085 +083 121076 077 054 006 00
201130 1827N 08544W 6965 03090 9997 +076 //// 116074 075 054 009 01
201200 1828N 08543W 6979 03078 //// +056 //// 116071 072 053 010 01
201230 1830N 08542W 6965 03100 //// +051 //// 119069 070 055 010 01
201300 1831N 08541W 6958 03114 //// +055 //// 122068 069 058 017 05
201330 1833N 08540W 6956 03116 //// +058 //// 129068 069 060 026 01
201400 1834N 08539W 6972 03100 //// +056 //// 122066 071 052 024 01
201430 1836N 08538W 6962 03114 //// +051 //// 118068 069 052 016 01
201500 1837N 08537W 6966 03114 //// +050 //// 119065 066 050 009 01
201530 1838N 08537W 6970 03115 //// +065 //// 120066 068 049 008 01
201600 1840N 08536W 6959 03132 //// +063 //// 117062 064 048 009 01
201630 1841N 08535W 6968 03121 //// +063 //// 118059 061 048 011 01
201700 1843N 08534W 6967 03123 //// +049 //// 116057 060 048 010 05
201730 1844N 08533W 6968 03126 //// +052 //// 117057 058 047 010 01
201800 1845N 08532W 6971 03125 //// +040 //// 113059 061 045 009 01
Max flight level wind 79 kt.
URNT15 KNHC 262018
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 35 20111026
200830 1818N 08549W 6971 03030 9906 +100 //// 118075 076 066 004 01
200900 1820N 08548W 6960 03053 9922 +094 //// 120075 076 065 004 01
200930 1821N 08547W 6974 03045 9938 +091 //// 117075 076 065 005 01
201000 1823N 08546W 6970 03058 9947 +090 //// 119077 078 062 005 01
201030 1824N 08545W 6965 03073 9964 +086 //// 121078 079 059 004 01
201100 1825N 08545W 6968 03078 9977 +085 +083 121076 077 054 006 00
201130 1827N 08544W 6965 03090 9997 +076 //// 116074 075 054 009 01
201200 1828N 08543W 6979 03078 //// +056 //// 116071 072 053 010 01
201230 1830N 08542W 6965 03100 //// +051 //// 119069 070 055 010 01
201300 1831N 08541W 6958 03114 //// +055 //// 122068 069 058 017 05
201330 1833N 08540W 6956 03116 //// +058 //// 129068 069 060 026 01
201400 1834N 08539W 6972 03100 //// +056 //// 122066 071 052 024 01
201430 1836N 08538W 6962 03114 //// +051 //// 118068 069 052 016 01
201500 1837N 08537W 6966 03114 //// +050 //// 119065 066 050 009 01
201530 1838N 08537W 6970 03115 //// +065 //// 120066 068 049 008 01
201600 1840N 08536W 6959 03132 //// +063 //// 117062 064 048 009 01
201630 1841N 08535W 6968 03121 //// +063 //// 118059 061 048 011 01
201700 1843N 08534W 6967 03123 //// +049 //// 116057 060 048 010 05
201730 1844N 08533W 6968 03126 //// +052 //// 117057 058 047 010 01
201800 1845N 08532W 6971 03125 //// +040 //// 113059 061 045 009 01
Max flight level wind 79 kt.
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- Weatherboy1
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Rina says: "Take that all you haters, I'm coming back better than ever!" LOL.
In all seriousness, though, she probably doesn't stand much of a chance once she gets into some of the nastier shear in the Gulf. But for right now, if the shear is southerly and she is moving to the north at a slightly faster clip as it appears, the storm-relative shear would be reduced and she could hold together long, no?

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URNT12 KNHC 262023
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/20:05:20Z
B. 18 deg 08 min N
085 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2937 m
D. 76 kt
E. 279 deg 6 nm
F. 033 deg 76 kt
G. 282 deg 8 nm
H. EXTRAP 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3041 m
J. 16 C / 3060 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 1235 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 20:10:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 981MB AND 24KT SFC WIND
;
URNT12 KNHC 262023
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182011
A. 26/20:05:20Z
B. 18 deg 08 min N
085 deg 54 min W
C. 700 mb 2937 m
D. 76 kt
E. 279 deg 6 nm
F. 033 deg 76 kt
G. 282 deg 8 nm
H. EXTRAP 977 mb
I. 9 C / 3041 m
J. 16 C / 3060 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C17
N. 1235 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0818A RINA OB 17
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 79 KT NE QUAD 20:10:40Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYE DROP REPORTED SLP OF 981MB AND 24KT SFC WIND
;
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Off Topic=If any member wants to participate in a poll that I made at Talking Tropics forum about if Rina was the last named system of 2011 Atlantic season,go and vote. Poll closes on October 31rst at 4:18 PM EDT.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112148&hilit=&p=2203736#p2203736
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112148&hilit=&p=2203736#p2203736
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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URNT15 KNHC 262028
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 36 20111026
201830 1846N 08530W 6964 03135 //// +048 //// 115059 061 044 008 01
201900 1847N 08529W 6975 03125 //// +046 //// 113059 059 044 007 01
201930 1848N 08528W 6966 03137 //// +043 //// 113058 058 042 008 01
202000 1849N 08527W 6966 03138 //// +050 //// 114057 058 042 006 01
202030 1850N 08526W 6968 03138 //// +046 //// 112054 055 042 006 01
202100 1851N 08524W 6967 03140 0087 +054 //// 113053 054 041 006 01
202130 1852N 08523W 6968 03142 0076 +065 +064 114052 053 039 006 00
202200 1853N 08522W 6967 03150 0087 +062 //// 114049 049 039 006 01
202230 1855N 08521W 6967 03153 0087 +065 +061 115049 049 038 007 00
202300 1856N 08520W 6968 03155 0085 +069 +059 114049 050 037 006 03
202330 1858N 08519W 6963 03160 0077 +075 +056 115049 049 034 005 03
202400 1859N 08519W 6966 03159 0074 +080 +054 120049 049 035 002 00
202430 1901N 08519W 6970 03155 0074 +081 +053 122048 049 034 003 00
202500 1903N 08518W 6968 03159 0074 +081 +055 123046 046 033 002 00
202530 1905N 08518W 6970 03156 0075 +082 +050 122043 044 032 002 00
202600 1907N 08517W 6965 03166 0078 +082 +044 120041 041 032 002 00
202630 1909N 08517W 6969 03162 0078 +085 +041 119040 041 031 002 00
202700 1910N 08516W 6965 03166 0078 +083 +042 117039 039 031 002 00
202730 1912N 08516W 6960 03176 0081 +082 +044 119037 037 032 001 03
202800 1914N 08515W 6968 03167 0084 +083 +042 120035 036 032 001 00
URNT15 KNHC 262028
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 36 20111026
201830 1846N 08530W 6964 03135 //// +048 //// 115059 061 044 008 01
201900 1847N 08529W 6975 03125 //// +046 //// 113059 059 044 007 01
201930 1848N 08528W 6966 03137 //// +043 //// 113058 058 042 008 01
202000 1849N 08527W 6966 03138 //// +050 //// 114057 058 042 006 01
202030 1850N 08526W 6968 03138 //// +046 //// 112054 055 042 006 01
202100 1851N 08524W 6967 03140 0087 +054 //// 113053 054 041 006 01
202130 1852N 08523W 6968 03142 0076 +065 +064 114052 053 039 006 00
202200 1853N 08522W 6967 03150 0087 +062 //// 114049 049 039 006 01
202230 1855N 08521W 6967 03153 0087 +065 +061 115049 049 038 007 00
202300 1856N 08520W 6968 03155 0085 +069 +059 114049 050 037 006 03
202330 1858N 08519W 6963 03160 0077 +075 +056 115049 049 034 005 03
202400 1859N 08519W 6966 03159 0074 +080 +054 120049 049 035 002 00
202430 1901N 08519W 6970 03155 0074 +081 +053 122048 049 034 003 00
202500 1903N 08518W 6968 03159 0074 +081 +055 123046 046 033 002 00
202530 1905N 08518W 6970 03156 0075 +082 +050 122043 044 032 002 00
202600 1907N 08517W 6965 03166 0078 +082 +044 120041 041 032 002 00
202630 1909N 08517W 6969 03162 0078 +085 +041 119040 041 031 002 00
202700 1910N 08516W 6965 03166 0078 +083 +042 117039 039 031 002 00
202730 1912N 08516W 6960 03176 0081 +082 +044 119037 037 032 001 03
202800 1914N 08515W 6968 03167 0084 +083 +042 120035 036 032 001 00
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- Hylian Auree
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URNT15 KNHC 262038
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 37 20111026
202830 1915N 08514W 6962 03176 0083 +083 +041 122035 036 032 001 00
202900 1917N 08513W 6970 03165 0088 +080 +042 121034 035 032 002 03
202930 1919N 08512W 6970 03166 0094 +075 +043 116030 031 033 001 00
203000 1921N 08511W 6969 03168 0096 +075 +045 122031 032 030 002 00
203030 1922N 08509W 6963 03176 0097 +075 +048 120031 032 030 001 00
203100 1924N 08508W 6966 03171 0094 +075 +053 121031 031 030 000 00
203130 1926N 08507W 6967 03170 0093 +075 +054 120030 030 029 001 03
203200 1928N 08506W 6969 03167 0097 +072 +055 119031 032 030 001 00
203230 1929N 08505W 6965 03172 0102 +069 +057 118029 030 030 002 00
203300 1931N 08504W 6970 03166 0103 +067 +061 118028 028 030 002 00
203330 1933N 08503W 6965 03172 0101 +069 +064 120027 027 031 001 00
203400 1934N 08502W 6966 03170 0097 +072 +067 120027 028 031 001 00
203430 1936N 08501W 6969 03167 0096 +071 +067 118027 027 031 001 00
203500 1938N 08500W 6969 03168 0092 +074 +068 118028 029 031 001 00
203530 1940N 08459W 6967 03172 0095 +074 +068 120026 027 032 001 00
203600 1941N 08458W 6963 03177 0099 +071 +068 121027 028 034 002 00
203630 1943N 08456W 6962 03178 0102 +070 //// 124028 028 035 002 01
203700 1945N 08455W 6968 03172 0102 +070 //// 122027 028 035 001 05
203730 1947N 08455W 6953 03184 0100 +068 //// 122025 027 /// /// 05
203800 1949N 08457W 6791 03384 0100 +059 //// 119024 025 035 001 05
Plane ascending, mission over.
URNT15 KNHC 262038
AF304 0818A RINA HDOB 37 20111026
202830 1915N 08514W 6962 03176 0083 +083 +041 122035 036 032 001 00
202900 1917N 08513W 6970 03165 0088 +080 +042 121034 035 032 002 03
202930 1919N 08512W 6970 03166 0094 +075 +043 116030 031 033 001 00
203000 1921N 08511W 6969 03168 0096 +075 +045 122031 032 030 002 00
203030 1922N 08509W 6963 03176 0097 +075 +048 120031 032 030 001 00
203100 1924N 08508W 6966 03171 0094 +075 +053 121031 031 030 000 00
203130 1926N 08507W 6967 03170 0093 +075 +054 120030 030 029 001 03
203200 1928N 08506W 6969 03167 0097 +072 +055 119031 032 030 001 00
203230 1929N 08505W 6965 03172 0102 +069 +057 118029 030 030 002 00
203300 1931N 08504W 6970 03166 0103 +067 +061 118028 028 030 002 00
203330 1933N 08503W 6965 03172 0101 +069 +064 120027 027 031 001 00
203400 1934N 08502W 6966 03170 0097 +072 +067 120027 028 031 001 00
203430 1936N 08501W 6969 03167 0096 +071 +067 118027 027 031 001 00
203500 1938N 08500W 6969 03168 0092 +074 +068 118028 029 031 001 00
203530 1940N 08459W 6967 03172 0095 +074 +068 120026 027 032 001 00
203600 1941N 08458W 6963 03177 0099 +071 +068 121027 028 034 002 00
203630 1943N 08456W 6962 03178 0102 +070 //// 124028 028 035 002 01
203700 1945N 08455W 6968 03172 0102 +070 //// 122027 028 035 001 05
203730 1947N 08455W 6953 03184 0100 +068 //// 122025 027 /// /// 05
203800 1949N 08457W 6791 03384 0100 +059 //// 119024 025 035 001 05
Plane ascending, mission over.
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- wxman57
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Re:
FireRat wrote:Wxman57, ain't that a human's shadow. Althougn he doesn't have his spacesuit on....![]()
ET?
I rotated the image 180 degrees to make the shadow upright. That looks like Rina yesterday, with the camera pointed toward the east. That banding in the cirrus extended out in the western periphery of the hurricane yesterday. Looks like someone wearing bell-bottom pants pointing something on a tripod at the Earth.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: RINA - Advisories
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA
WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA NEARS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE
WINDS. THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN.
RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5. THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER
VERTICALLY. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
TURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
RINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...
SUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 36
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 HOURS OR EARLIER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 18.2N 85.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.0N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.4N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1800Z 23.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
HURRICANE RINA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
...RINA NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 85.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF ROATAN AND GUANAJA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA TO SAN FELIPE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO
PROGRESO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RINA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. RINA IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RINA
WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ON THURSDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. RINA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER OF RINA NEARS THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.
RAINFALL...RINA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 16
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND COZUMEL THROUGH
FRIDAY.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCDAT3
HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST
THAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND
SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL
DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA
SUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE
WINDS. THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN.
RITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 310/5. THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE
FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA
INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER
VERTICALLY. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND
CANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN
TURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
RINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...
SUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 36
HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING
THAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
MODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD
WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 HOURS OR EARLIER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/2100Z 18.2N 85.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 86.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 20.0N 86.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.4N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1800Z 22.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1800Z 23.0N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/1800Z 22.5N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
Beautiful cirrus band to our south. Rina has burst cold tops again and pushed back the dry air on WV. How this reflects on a more Florida-ward track is yet to be seen.
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Re: ATL: RINA - Hurricane - Discussion
fci wrote:psyclone wrote:wxman57 wrote:I've always said, as damaging as hurricanes can be, they're extremely fragile. If the environment isn't just right, they fall apart very quickly. Rina is demonstrating that.
this cannot be emphasized enough. I refer to hurricanes as an atmospheric house of cards. if you yank one thing from the equation these things fall apart. and thank goodness that's the case. so many make the mistake of thinking warm water = hurricanes but that is just the base foundation. otherwise we would have these things all the time. look at the gulf. it is bathwater for a third of the year and yet many hurricane seasons feature little or no activity there. the idea that this system would present a meaningful threat to florida was pretty far fetched from day one. it just wasn't in the cards.
Absolutely true, however; people still have keen memories of Wilma and given the fragility of the tropics, we had to keep a watchful eye on Rina even if the odds were stacked against her ever getting here in a meaningful way.
Plus, while we play the "results" and are genius' after the fact (a little premature to say Rina is gone yet, but it looks that way); JB had this storm as a Cat 1 coming to South Florida as late as yesterday. While we can tease about his predictions, we cannot discount the knowledge the man has which means this wasn't necessarily always "not in the cards".
Conditions have consistently been forecast to be horrid for a TC outside of the caribbean since this storm was designated. so yes, outside of the jb fantasy world and a few enthusiastic model runs it was always pretty much "in the cards". even so, if there was a change to that, there would be ample time for people to prepare as required. of course we're going to watch it...it is a hurricane afterall. but it's important to be realistic regarding the threat potential for florida...it's always been very low. and unncesessary hyping ultimately means people stay behind for a storm that is a real danger. we have way too much of that.
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http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... _common+12
is the front that is currently dropping through west texas the one to lift whatever remains of rina or am I reading the wv loop incorrectly?
also tough to tell her motion at the moment, but seems a bit more west than expected.
is the front that is currently dropping through west texas the one to lift whatever remains of rina or am I reading the wv loop incorrectly?
also tough to tell her motion at the moment, but seems a bit more west than expected.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
URNT15 KWBC 262248
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 10 20111026
223830 2220N 08537W 6957 03203 0100 +089 +038 099013 014 011 000 00
223900 2218N 08539W 6958 03203 0101 +089 +035 100013 013 013 000 00
223930 2216N 08540W 6957 03202 0099 +091 +033 100014 015 014 000 00
224000 2214N 08541W 6957 03205 0100 +091 +034 101016 016 015 000 00
224030 2211N 08542W 6958 03202 0101 +089 +035 098016 017 015 000 00
224100 2209N 08544W 6958 03202 0102 +088 +035 096017 018 017 000 00
224130 2207N 08545W 6959 03202 0101 +089 +035 097018 018 017 000 00
224200 2205N 08546W 6958 03203 0103 +088 +034 100017 017 017 000 00
224230 2203N 08547W 6959 03204 0107 +087 +034 106018 020 018 000 00
224300 2200N 08549W 6960 03204 0104 +089 +032 100020 021 019 000 00
224330 2158N 08550W 6959 03203 0100 +092 +030 095022 023 020 000 00
224400 2156N 08551W 6959 03203 0102 +090 +030 097023 024 019 000 00
224430 2154N 08553W 6959 03203 0104 +088 +034 099024 025 020 000 00
224500 2152N 08554W 6959 03202 0106 +087 +033 100027 028 018 000 00
224530 2149N 08555W 6959 03201 0108 +083 +034 103027 028 019 000 03
224600 2147N 08555W 6959 03201 0109 +081 +047 118021 023 017 000 00
224630 2145N 08555W 6960 03201 0109 +082 +040 141018 019 020 000 00
224700 2142N 08555W 6962 03198 0103 +087 +041 137017 018 020 000 00
224730 2140N 08555W 6960 03202 0103 +088 +039 127018 019 026 003 00
224800 2138N 08555W 6961 03202 0106 +087 +047 123018 019 021 000 00
NOAA2 1018A RINA HDOB 10 20111026
223830 2220N 08537W 6957 03203 0100 +089 +038 099013 014 011 000 00
223900 2218N 08539W 6958 03203 0101 +089 +035 100013 013 013 000 00
223930 2216N 08540W 6957 03202 0099 +091 +033 100014 015 014 000 00
224000 2214N 08541W 6957 03205 0100 +091 +034 101016 016 015 000 00
224030 2211N 08542W 6958 03202 0101 +089 +035 098016 017 015 000 00
224100 2209N 08544W 6958 03202 0102 +088 +035 096017 018 017 000 00
224130 2207N 08545W 6959 03202 0101 +089 +035 097018 018 017 000 00
224200 2205N 08546W 6958 03203 0103 +088 +034 100017 017 017 000 00
224230 2203N 08547W 6959 03204 0107 +087 +034 106018 020 018 000 00
224300 2200N 08549W 6960 03204 0104 +089 +032 100020 021 019 000 00
224330 2158N 08550W 6959 03203 0100 +092 +030 095022 023 020 000 00
224400 2156N 08551W 6959 03203 0102 +090 +030 097023 024 019 000 00
224430 2154N 08553W 6959 03203 0104 +088 +034 099024 025 020 000 00
224500 2152N 08554W 6959 03202 0106 +087 +033 100027 028 018 000 00
224530 2149N 08555W 6959 03201 0108 +083 +034 103027 028 019 000 03
224600 2147N 08555W 6959 03201 0109 +081 +047 118021 023 017 000 00
224630 2145N 08555W 6960 03201 0109 +082 +040 141018 019 020 000 00
224700 2142N 08555W 6962 03198 0103 +087 +041 137017 018 020 000 00
224730 2140N 08555W 6960 03202 0103 +088 +039 127018 019 026 003 00
224800 2138N 08555W 6961 03202 0106 +087 +047 123018 019 021 000 00
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