ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Dave]

[Dave]

440
URNT15 KNHC 021244
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 08 20110902
123500 2739N 09059W 8430 01535 0059 +185 +089 027005 006 /// /// 03
123530 2737N 09100W 8426 01545 0058 +188 +091 333002 003 /// /// 03
123600 2736N 09059W 8432 01539 0057 +190 +093 275003 003 /// /// 03
123630 2734N 09059W 8428 01542 0057 +187 +094 293003 005 021 001 03
123700 2734N 09101W 8433 01535 0055 +189 +095 309001 002 021 000 03
123730 2734N 09103W 8428 01540 0056 +185 +097 282001 002 022 002 00
123800 2733N 09104W 8433 01533 0061 +174 +099 070002 004 028 008 00
123830 2733N 09106W 8437 01531 0065 +169 +098 333004 006 031 012 00
123900 2733N 09108W 8430 01538 0060 +179 +096 312005 006 026 003 00
123930 2732N 09110W 8430 01539 0058 +185 +095 294004 004 021 000 00
124000 2732N 09112W 8430 01539 0057 +185 +096 301005 005 021 000 00
124030 2731N 09113W 8429 01540 0055 +186 +097 306005 005 019 001 00
124100 2731N 09115W 8432 01535 0055 +186 +097 296005 006 020 001 00
124130 2731N 09117W 8429 01538 0056 +185 +099 306005 005 022 000 00
124200 2730N 09119W 8433 01534 0056 +185 +100 310005 006 019 001 00
124230 2730N 09120W 8431 01539 0055 +185 +100 315004 005 021 000 00
124300 2729N 09122W 8428 01541 0055 +186 +101 339005 005 020 002 00
124330 2729N 09124W 8435 01532 0054 +186 +102 341004 004 026 003 00
124400 2729N 09126W 8433 01533 0058 +179 +102 338003 007 025 001 00
124430 2728N 09128W 8439 01529 0056 +183 +102 342004 005 022 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

I've got it Cycloneye...still setting up graphics and having breakfast...mt dew & chocolate chip cookies.

[KWT]

Model guidance now says Tropical Cyclone Thirteen with an intensity of 35kts. Big question now is Lee or Maria?

12z Best Track

AL, 13, 2011090212, , BEST, 0, 270N, 916W, 35, 1005, TS

Yep given the recon reports it makes sense that they upgrade it.

The ECM suggests today the rain stays mainly focused on south and doesn't really spread beyond wherei t is now till about 24hrs time.

[BigA]

Recon may have just found a center relocation to the northeast at about 27.6, 90.9. ENE to WSW wind shift at that point This would put the new center more under the heavy convection.

Might just be an eddy, but I believe it is the new center.

can you illustrate?....

Unfortunately this computer doesn't have microsoft paint. But the go to http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg and put you cursor at 27.6, 90.9 and you will find it is quite close to the heavy convection.

[cycloneye]

I've got it Cycloneye...still setting up graphics and having breakfast...mt dew & chocolate chip cookies.

Ok good.

[RL3AO]

Model guidance now says Tropical Cyclone Thirteen with an intensity of 35kts. Big question now is Lee or Maria?

13L would get the name Lee if they we're upgraded at the same time right? 14L (94L) would take Maria

[Dave]

[cajungal]

Raining here in the Houma-Thibodaux area. Moderate rain, nothing too heavy yet.

[Stormcenter]

Thank goodness for the upper low.

33kts GCANE, its pretty close thats for sure...

Nice line heading into MS Gulf coastline right now...

Recon is finding TS winds, that's for sure. The only thing missing is a well-defined LLC. That upper low to its west is preventing the very weak LLC from getting any better organized.

[Javlin]

Some decent storms here along the MS coast this morning no winds really just rain.

[Dave]

863
URNT15 KNHC 021254
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 09 20110902
124500 2728N 09129W 8425 01543 0052 +190 +100 327008 008 022 001 00
124530 2727N 09131W 8433 01533 0053 +189 +098 326008 009 021 000 00
124600 2727N 09133W 8432 01535 0052 +187 +099 334007 008 020 001 00
124630 2727N 09135W 8433 01534 0053 +189 +100 355008 010 021 000 00
124700 2726N 09137W 8432 01535 0054 +185 +101 355010 010 017 001 00
124730 2726N 09138W 8430 01538 0054 +187 +102 356010 011 018 000 00
124800 2725N 09140W 8433 01534 0054 +187 +103 355011 012 020 001 00
124830 2725N 09142W 8431 01537 0054 +188 +104 355012 012 025 001 00
124900 2725N 09144W 8430 01535 0055 +186 +103 347013 016 024 000 00
124930 2724N 09146W 8429 01540 0056 +185 +104 353016 016 024 000 00
125000 2724N 09147W 8433 01534 0054 +188 +104 353015 016 020 000 00
125030 2723N 09149W 8430 01537 0053 +191 +105 351015 016 019 000 00
125100 2723N 09151W 8430 01539 0056 +185 +105 351016 017 018 000 00
125130 2722N 09153W 8430 01539 0056 +185 +105 350015 016 020 001 00
125200 2722N 09155W 8430 01538 0055 +190 +106 348015 016 017 002 00
125230 2722N 09157W 8429 01539 0055 +189 +106 348015 016 018 001 00
125300 2721N 09158W 8432 01540 0053 +193 +106 346015 015 018 001 00
125330 2721N 09200W 8432 01540 0054 +191 +106 348015 016 020 000 00
125400 2720N 09202W 8428 01545 0057 +188 +107 353016 017 018 001 00
125430 2720N 09204W 8430 01542 0058 +187 +107 348015 016 020 001 00
$$
;

[Dave]

[KWT]

I suspect as Wxman57 said landfall will be in about 48-60hrs followed by it holding steady just near the coast, probably won't weaken all that much till it fully heads inland maybe in 84-96hrs time.

So some areas in SE LA could well see nearly 96hrs of fairly constant showers/rain.

Think 25-30 inches locally is quite possible over a 4 day period.

[Cryomaniac]

Model guidance now says Tropical Cyclone Thirteen with an intensity of 35kts. Big question now is Lee or Maria?

13L would get the name Lee if they we're upgraded at the same time right? 14L (94L) would take Maria

I think that's how it's worked before.

[Dave]

903
URNT15 KNHC 021304
AF306 0213A CYCLONE HDOB 10 20110902
125500 2719N 09206W 8429 01544 0057 +192 +107 351014 014 019 000 00
125530 2719N 09207W 8431 01544 0056 +194 +107 347014 015 021 000 00
125600 2719N 09209W 8432 01541 0057 +193 +107 345015 016 020 000 00
125630 2718N 09211W 8430 01544 0058 +190 +107 347017 017 020 000 00
125700 2718N 09213W 8432 01542 0058 +190 +107 341015 016 019 000 00
125730 2717N 09215W 8433 01543 0058 +194 +107 337013 014 018 000 03
125800 2716N 09216W 8433 01541 0057 +192 +107 339014 014 018 000 00
125830 2715N 09217W 8431 01543 0058 +190 +107 334014 015 019 000 00
125900 2714N 09219W 8429 01545 0057 +192 +107 335015 016 019 000 00
125930 2713N 09220W 8430 01543 0057 +194 +107 341015 016 018 000 00
130000 2711N 09221W 8428 01548 0057 +192 +108 337014 015 017 001 00
130030 2710N 09223W 8429 01546 0057 +193 +108 337014 015 018 001 00
130100 2709N 09224W 8433 01542 0060 +189 +107 342014 015 019 000 00
130130 2708N 09225W 8431 01543 0063 +185 +108 338015 016 019 000 00
130200 2707N 09227W 8430 01543 0064 +183 +108 340015 016 018 000 00
130230 2705N 09228W 8433 01540 0064 +185 +109 337014 014 019 001 00
130300 2704N 09229W 8424 01552 0065 +180 +109 343017 017 022 000 00
130330 2703N 09231W 8430 01545 0064 +182 +109 336018 019 019 000 00
130400 2702N 09232W 8430 01545 0062 +188 +109 332018 018 021 000 00
130430 2701N 09233W 8430 01544 0060 +188 +109 332016 017 019 000 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 021259
XXAA 52138 99276 70909 08270 99006 26828 14511 00052 26626 13512
92740 23223 10503 85476 19456 30002 88999 77999
31313 09608 81233
61616 AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 04
62626 SPL 2762N09093W 1236 MBL WND 12011 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13504
005843 WL150 13013 084 REL 2762N09093W 123347 SPG 2762N09093W 123
608 =
XXBB 52138 99276 70909 08270 00006 26828 11860 20221 22850 19456
33843 18660
21212 00006 14511 11992 12014 22982 12014 33965 11510 44915 00000
55891 26504 66856 26504 77843 00503
31313 09608 81233
61616 AF306 0213A CYCLONE OB 04
62626 SPL 2762N09093W 1236 MBL WND 12011 AEV 20802 DLM WND 13504
005843 WL150 13013 084 REL 2762N09093W 123347 SPG 2762N09093W 123
608 =
;

[KWT]

Some decent storms here along the MS coast this morning no winds really just rain.

Nice and potent strong band just coming through far S.MS at the moment. Should see an increase in rainfall over the next day as the system slowly becomes better organised and pulls itself together a little better.

[Dave]

DECODED DROPSONDE OB 4

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 12:59Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 04

Part A...


Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 2nd day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 27.6N 90.9W
Location: 172 miles (277 km) to the SSW (197°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Marsden Square: 082 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1006mb (29.71 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 145° (from the SE) 11 knots (13 mph)
1000mb 52m (171 ft) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 135° (from the SE) 12 knots (14 mph)
925mb 740m (2,428 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) 20.9°C (69.6°F) 105° (from the ESE) 3 knots (3 mph)
850mb 1,476m (4,843 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F) 300° (from the WNW) 2 knots (2 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 12:33Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...


Splash Location: 27.62N 90.93W
Splash Time: 12:36Z

Release Location: 27.62N 90.93W View map)
Release Time: 12:33:47Z

Splash Location: 27.62N 90.93W (
Splash Time: 12:36:08Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 120° (from the ESE)
- Wind Speed: 11 knots (13 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 135° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 843mb to 1005mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE)
- Wind Speed: 13 knots (15 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20802


Part B: Data For Significant Levels...


Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1006mb (Surface) 26.8°C (80.2°F) 24.0°C (75.2°F)
860mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.1°C (64.6°F)
850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) Approximately 13°C (55°F)
843mb 18.6°C (65.5°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1006mb (Surface) 145° (from the SE) 11 knots (13 mph)
992mb 120° (from the ESE) 14 knots (16 mph)
982mb 120° (from the ESE) 14 knots (16 mph)
965mb 115° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
915mb 0° (from the N) 0 knots (0 mph)
891mb 265° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph)
856mb 265° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph)
843mb 5° (from the N) 3 knots (3 mph)


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[Dave]