WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[supercane]

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 16.1N 126.6E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM SOUTH 100NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 17.4N 126.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 261200UTC 18.9N 126.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 271200UTC 20.5N 124.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 281200UTC 22.0N 124.5E 350NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
120HF 291200UTC 23.5N 124.7E 450NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY =

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.0N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 16.4N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 17.1N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.9N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.1N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.2N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 126.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND
251500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING
NR 08//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (240500Z AMSR-E IMAGE AND A 241000Z
TRMM IMAGE) INDICATE THAT TS 14W HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY BE SLOWING AND PERHAPS QUASI-STATIONARY. BASED ON THE
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND RECENT MOTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, THE
TRACK WAS SHIFTED FURTHER WEST AND THE TRACK SPEEDS WERE DECREASED
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.
B. TS 14W HAS REMAINED EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW, ERRATIC TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE RYUKYUS (NAZE) AT
24/00Z SHOW DEEP (BUT WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW INDICATIVE OF THE STR
PERSISTING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE 24/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES
A COL REGION LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU SEPARATING THE EASTERN STR,
SOUTH OF JAPAN, FROM THE WESTERN STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST
CHINA. THE 500MB ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MANCHURIA INTO EAST CENTRAL CHINA. THERE ARE TWO
MECHANISMS WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE STR: THE FIRST IS THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE SECOND IS ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN
AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN BY TAU 96-120. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 220 NM SPREAD IN
THE SOLUTIONS. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 96, TS 14W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT (FUJIWARA) WITH
ANOTHER DEVELOPING SYSTEM (CURRENT TCFA SYSTEM) EXPECTED TO TRACK
TOWARD WESTERN JAPAN. THIS WILL INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE
SYSTEMS APPROACH WITHIN 700 NM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN POOR
AGREEMENT AND HAS ALSO FLUCTUATED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM RUN-TO-RUN WITH
A LARGE SPREAD (APPROXIMATELY 370 NM AT TAU 120) IN SOLUTIONS. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
SLOWER TRACK AND TRACK CLOSER TO OKINAWA IS POSSIBLE AFTER TAU 120.//
NNNN

Current SAB Dvorak estimate 4.5/77kt:
TXPQ25 KNES 241537
TCSWNP
A. 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 24/1501Z
C. 15.9N
D. 126.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...12/10 WHITE BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. MET IS A 4.0
AND PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
24/1000Z 15.8N 126.6E TMI
...MYRGA

[Macrocane]

Every JTWC warning has a stronger peak than the previous one, I wouldn't be surprised at all if Nanamdol becomes a major typhoon (1 min winds).

[FireRat]

Another issue for August 27th IMO. Taiwan should keep an eye on this feature for the time frame 8/27 into the 28th. Major typhoon in two days is a good bet.

[StormingB81]

that new ecmwf run is just wow!!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Same with GFS, not to much I can say about this besides....

[StormingB81]

Now I am still a little sketchy at reading models..what is that saying...a major typhoon over Okinawa?

[KWT]

Those models are amazingly interesting I have to say, going to be very interesting to see how this all evolves, the ECM takes it just about all over the basin from the looks of things!

In the short term it looks like Nanmadol is going to gain latitude and strengthen, the forecast of 90ks seems much more realisitic then the orginal forecast.

[supercane]

JTWC upgrades to typhoon with 21Z advisory:
WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 14W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.0N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 16.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.2N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.1N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.6N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.9N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 126.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241712Z AMSRE IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE AMSRE 37GHZ WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL AND DIFFLUENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 14W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE RYUKYUS (NAZE) AT 24/12Z SHOW DEEP (BUT
WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW INDICATIVE OF THE STR PERSISTING NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 24/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU BETWEEN THE EASTERN STR, SOUTH OF
JAPAN, AND THE WESTERN STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE
500MB ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN CHINA. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN MORE
POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM (CURRENT TCFA) LOCATED TO THE EAST
INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS NORTHWARD. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE TWO
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI),
WHICH WILL INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT INITIALLY, EXCEPT FOR UKMO WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD WITH NO INDICATION OF DCI. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TY 14W
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, SEVERAL INTENSITY
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO BECAUSE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.//
NNNN

TPPN11 PGTW 241821
A. TROPICAL STORM 14W (NANMADOL)
B. 24/1732Z
C. 15.6N
D. 126.1E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. EMBD CNTR WITH MG SURR
YIELDS A 4.0 DT. BF IS VISIBLE BUT CANNOT BE USED DUE TO MET
CONSTRAINTS. MET AND PT AGREE.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1238Z 15.8N 126.6E MMHS
BELMONDO

[Fyzn94]

JTWC upgrades to typhoon with 21Z advisory

Sure does look healthy

[KWT]

Now forecasted to reach 100kts, I knew that forecast was way too low from the JWTC, now forecasted to be twice as strong!

[StormingB81]

Wow and the wind shear has dropped even more...

[phwxenthusiast]

sporting a very nice microwave eye now... as Storming said, wind shear is very light (around 10kts or so).. add to that the high ocean heat content just east of Luzon... unless 97W develops fast enough to actually affect Nanmadol's development, i have a feeling this could become a Cat 3 soon...

i don't really think upwelling will be a concern, despite the very erratic and slow movement, waters in the Philippine Sea should be warm and deep enough to let this intensify more...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[euro6208]

TY 14W
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, SEVERAL INTENSITY
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO BECAUSE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

very likely

TXPQ25 KNES 242126
TCSWNP

A. 14W (NANMADOL)

B. 24/2032Z

C. 16.2N

D. 125.9E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSRE

H. REMARKS...ALTHOUGH NOT EVIDENT IN EIR OR SWIR IMAGERY, 1712Z AMSRE
PASS INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED EYE PRESENT AT LOWER LEVELS. EMBEDDED
CENTER PATTERN GT 0.6 DEG IN B YIELDS DT = 5.0. MET = 4.0 AND PT =
4.5. FT IS BASED ON PT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

24/1712Z 16.0N 126.2E AMSRE


...GUILLOT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 965.5mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.8 4.1

[euro6208]

ocean heat content are very high so strengthening is a go...



forecast is for a strong typhoon

[rdhdstpchld]

Dammmit dammit dammit!! LOL...all you "wishers and hopers" -- thanks a ton!! I'd sure like for some miracle to blow this east or pop it's bubble or whatever...doesn't look like that's going to happen tho. ECMWF models are unnerving to say the least (once I figured out how to see them correctly -- weird to have to put the days backwards...LOL)

[StormingB81]

Looks like an eye starting to form....

rdhdstpchld- you live on base?

[StormingB81]

JMA upgrades to typhoon:

TY 1111 (NANMADOL)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 25 August 2011
<Analyses at 25/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°10'(16.2°)
E125°35'(125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S280km(150NM)
N190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E125°20'(125.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E125°00'(125.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N20°55'(20.9°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[StormingB81]

Im not that good on RI but it looks like it is starting to look really good really quick! but thats just my amature eye

[rdhdstpchld]

Looks like an eye starting to form....

rdhdstpchld- you live on base?

Yep - and I just untied all my yard stuff -- figures -- I probably triggered the storm by doing that!!

[StormingB81]

On base you will be fine..sturdy structure and windows that can withstand 198 mph winds