ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Really wierd looking ECM run IMO...

KWT,why you say Euro run is weird?

[rainstorm]

euro doesnt really do much with it in any case. that east coast trough wont go away.

[rainstorm]

Really wierd looking ECM run IMO...

KWT,why you say Euro run is weird?

at 216 it just looks like an elongated trough from the central gom to east of fla.

[Florida1118]

This tracks to the Hebert Box - threat to Leeward Island, PR, Florida.

Just because it goes into one of the boxes does not mean its a threat to FL, storms go into the boxes all the time and dont hit FL. Leeward and PR, yeah, those seem to need to watch

[cycloneye]

18z graphic. Look at where the NHC TVCN tracks.

Code: Select all

Mon Sep  5 15:04:22 EDT 2011
WHXX01 KWBC 051839

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC MON SEP 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952011) 20110905 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110905  1800   110906  0600   110906  1800   110907  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.4N  31.4W    9.8N  33.0W   10.4N  35.4W   11.4N  38.9W
BAMD     9.4N  31.4W    9.9N  32.9W   10.6N  35.0W   11.6N  37.4W
BAMM     9.4N  31.4W    9.9N  33.1W   10.7N  35.3W   11.6N  38.0W
LBAR     9.4N  31.4W   10.0N  33.7W   10.8N  36.5W   11.5N  39.5W
SHIP        25KTS          35KTS          43KTS          49KTS
DSHP        25KTS          35KTS          43KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110907  1800   110908  1800   110909  1800   110910  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  43.1W   16.4N  51.8W   19.3N  59.5W   22.0N  65.7W
BAMD    12.7N  40.3W   14.7N  45.9W   16.3N  50.6W   17.5N  53.6W
BAMM    12.8N  41.3W   15.0N  48.3W   17.2N  54.8W   19.7N  60.2W
LBAR    12.1N  42.9W   13.5N  49.2W   15.4N  54.7W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        54KTS          56KTS          56KTS          59KTS
DSHP        54KTS          56KTS          56KTS          59KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.4N LONCUR =  31.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  13KT
LATM12 =   9.1N LONM12 =  28.8W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =   8.8N LONM24 =  26.2W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


Saved image.

[painkillerr]

This has trouble written all over it. It's difficult to imagine that we may have two hurricanes over Puerto Rico in the same season.

I also have a bad feeling about this one. Can you imagine if that occurs after we endured the Irene landfall? But history shows that PR has been thru more than one landfall on a season in the 1800's.

Oh I'm sure it's happened before Luis. But the timing would be lousy right now. Not that there is a "good" time for two storms to make landfall on the same location during one season.

[SouthFLTropics]

Could future Maria be Irene's twin sister???

[gatorcane]

Yeah this east coast trough is very stubborn.

Seems like it did not want to let go of its grip.

Same pattern as 2010

[LarryWx]

When CV systems develop this far E and track westerly across the Atlantic and don't recurve before the islands, they usually become legendary!

The current heading of ~270 degrees for 95L is definitely much better than the ~293 degrees of Katia for the same area for those who desire later CONUS action. Based on the database of 79 TC's in this area, nothing with a heading of 281+ degrees later hit the CONUS whereas a whopping 50% with a heading of 270 deg. or lower later hit and the average furthest west they got was all the way to 72W (over 60% made it past 70W). Unfortunately for predictive purposes, this data was based on only actual TC's. Since 95L isn't yet a TC near the longitude that was analyzed for those 79 TC's, I won't use the data to establish specific probabilities of how far west it will ultimately go. However, the general heading idea could seemingly be kept in mind as somewhat of a positive factor for those who prefer it get pretty far west. Whereas I and the GFS/Euro pretty much never thought Katia would make it to the CONUS, this one is totally up in the air.

FWIW:

9/5 model runs' summary for 95-L:

GFS:

0Z 9/5 GFS recurve 72W on 9/12.
6Z 9/5 GFS hits S FL 9/14
12Z 9/5 GFS hits Cape Cod/ME 9/16.

Euro:
0Z 9/5 Euro gets to C Cuba 9/14 when the run ends.
12Z 9/5 Euro gets to 79W just off SE FL 9/14 as a very weak low and then recurves E of the SE coast

Irene started off somewhat similarly with the models 10-12 days out when the GFS was hitting the CONUS every run from 8/15 onward. That first modeled hit was on NC and up the coast. Also, like Irene (and unlike Katia), 95-L is modeled to not do much until it gets pretty far west..when getting pretty close to the Caribbean.

[SootyTern]

I assume 95L is what Miami NWS is mentioning here in the 1400 forecast discussion:

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLORIDA
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

Don't often see them use this language for something so far out in the future.

[gatorcane]

I assume 95L is what Miami NWS is mentioning here in the 1400 forecast discussion:

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FLORIDA
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

Don't often see them use this language for something so far out in the future.

Yeah I usually don't see them talk about systems that are this far out.

But climatologically speaking, the next 2 to 3 weeks or so is when South Florida is most vulnerable from the east.

[cycloneye]

The benchmark position of 15N-50W for the NE Caribbean islands to be affected directly or not will be very important to watch to see if it tracks north or south of that position. Katia moved well north of that position.16.7N 50.6W at 11 PM on September 1.

[rainstorm]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pattern loaded next 3 weeks folks. The red area is most likely . Tracks of impact storms included pic.twitter.com/v4137up


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/st ... 74/photo/1

hatteras to new orleans

[HurricaneWarning92]

Latest Model Plots:

[cycloneye]

Excerpt from this afternoon discussion by NWS San Juan.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR DISTURBANCE
95L DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT
MAY HAVE A FUTURE NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 5 DAYS OR
SO.

For the complete discussion,go to the Caribbean - Central America Weather thread at USA & Caribbean Weather forum.

[gatorcane]

12z FIM is very aggressive developing a hurricane that passes through the northern Leewards passing just east of Puerto Rico...then deepens the system into a major hurricane that hits a weakness well east of the United States, recurving north of Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas

It seems if the system develops more quickly it will hit the weakness sooner....maybe..if the Euro and GFS get mire aggressive, I can see a similar track.

See the full run here

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi? ... 2011+-+12Z

[cycloneye]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pattern loaded next 3 weeks folks. The red area is most likely . Tracks of impact storms included pic.twitter.com/v4137up


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/st ... 74/photo/1

hatteras to new orleans

JB is pumped up bigtime with this.

[rainstorm]

he appears to be

[ConvergenceZone]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pattern loaded next 3 weeks folks. The red area is most likely . Tracks of impact storms included pic.twitter.com/v4137up


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/st ... 74/photo/1

hatteras to new orleans

JB is pumped up bigtime with this.

Yea he is, but JB also said(tweeted) that Katia would slam into the eastern coast once it developed into a tropical storm.

[Cranica]

JB is pumped up bigtime with this.

JB is pumped every time there's a thunderstorm shy of 30N.

I like the look of 95L, but after the first dozen storms of the year I have to admit I'm pretty gunshy about predicting anything stronger than a stiff breeze suppressed by mid-level dry air and shear from a ULL from nowhere.