ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[ROCK]

well the EURO did trended left with its run last night....instead of NE GOM...might be able to get some showers slung this way if it moves by...

[clfenwi]

Additional missions scheduled for tomorrow

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 08/1800Z A. 09/0000Z
B. AFXXX 02IIA INVEST B. NOAA9 03IIA SURV
C. 08/1530Z C. 08/1730Z
D. 20.5N 90.7W F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[micktooth]

Aric, where do you think the circulation center might be forming? Obviously, farther north might lead to some NGOM issues later on.

[ROCK]

did it go? should have had wheels up 15 minutes ago?

[clfenwi]

Haven't seen any obs yet... Plan of the Day did not cancel the mission... we shall see. During yesterday's mission for Katia, didn't see any HDOBS until the plane was already at cruising altitude.

[Lane]

Looking at the WV loop, does this thing even have a chance? A lot of dry air all around this storm.

[Jevo]

12z GFS loses it into the Yuke @ +30

[Ivanhater]

All models show this deepening quite rapidly over the next 48 hours. I think this will become a hurricane imo.

CMC, EURO and the GFS ENKF all send this up to the northern gulf coast.

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS 850 mb / vorticity 500 mb heights/ 200 mb winds at 57h

[Ivanhater]

There is a deep SW flow all across the Gulf on the 12z GFS....it would have to move NE.

[clfenwi]

~60h or so, starts moving the low west across the BOC. Surface view at 90h

[Ivanhater]

the GFS placement of the low is way too far south imo. Euro and CMC have the vorticity farther north where the center seems to be forming. No way it does not get caught up in the deep flow from the SW

[Jevo]

12Z gfs +96



Heading into Mexico for a Margarita and a Sun Tan.. Well see if the Ensembles and Operational are still not on speaking terms soon enough

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Michael, check out models pages on 96L from Rob @ Crown Weather. People are talking about this getting tapped and moving into Mexico but the overall consensus sure looks like a north central gulf coast threat to me.

http://www.crownweather.com/index.php?page_id=4557

[clfenwi]

And we have a mission!

URNT11 KNHC 071628
97779 16080 40302 89200 27600 33021 09//0 /3136
RMK AF300 01IIA INVEST OB 01

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 16:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate eighth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:08Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 30.2N 89.2W
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 2,760 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 330° at 21 knots (From the NNW at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,136 geopotential meters

[Stormcenter]

I'll take a wait and see attitude on this one. Though I must admit I have hard time buying into the northward scenario. JMHO

[Caribwxgirl]

I hope this one turns into nothing but a good bit of rain (no flooding etc) and go west into Texas cause they sure need the rains with those fires there...so sorry for those guys with that drought and heat for so long.

[dwsqos2]

The gfs is trending progressively weaker. Might it be a good idea not to call this disturbance future Nate?

[clfenwi]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071640
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 03 20110907
163030 2836N 08916W 3755 08016 0394 -235 -497 329010 010 018 000 00
163100 2834N 08916W 3757 08019 0393 -235 -501 328010 010 020 000 00
163130 2832N 08916W 3758 08011 0391 -233 -507 318009 009 018 000 00
163200 2829N 08915W 3758 08010 0390 -231 -513 314009 010 018 000 00
163230 2827N 08915W 3758 08011 0389 -230 -520 313010 010 019 000 00
163300 2824N 08914W 3762 08000 0389 -235 -524 318011 012 018 000 00
163330 2821N 08914W 3755 08011 0386 -235 -526 317011 013 018 000 00
163400 2819N 08914W 3759 08009 0388 -230 -530 312009 010 018 000 00
163430 2816N 08913W 3758 08007 0388 -230 -534 306009 009 018 000 00
163500 2814N 08913W 3759 08009 0388 -232 -537 295009 009 018 000 00
163530 2811N 08912W 3759 08005 0387 -233 -538 300010 010 016 000 00
163600 2808N 08912W 3758 08011 0388 -232 -539 299010 010 014 000 00
163630 2805N 08911W 3758 08007 0389 -230 -542 294009 010 013 000 00
163700 2803N 08911W 3759 08011 0390 -230 -543 288009 009 012 000 00
163730 2800N 08910W 3759 08010 0387 -230 -544 286009 010 013 000 00
163800 2757N 08910W 3758 08010 0387 -230 -545 287009 010 012 000 00
163830 2755N 08910W 3759 08007 0388 -230 -545 282011 011 009 000 00
163900 2752N 08909W 3759 08006 0388 -231 -546 272010 010 009 000 00
163930 2749N 08909W 3758 08012 0390 -235 -548 277010 010 007 000 00
164000 2746N 08908W 3759 08007 0389 -235 -548 277011 012 011 000 00
$$

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071650
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 04 20110907
164030 2744N 08908W 3759 08009 0389 -235 -549 273014 014 009 000 00
164100 2741N 08907W 3759 08008 0389 -232 -550 277014 014 008 000 00
164130 2738N 08907W 3759 08010 0390 -234 -552 276014 015 009 000 00
164200 2736N 08906W 3758 08012 0389 -230 -552 273013 014 007 000 00
164230 2733N 08906W 3758 08014 0390 -232 -553 267013 014 008 000 00
164300 2730N 08906W 3759 08012 0390 -232 -554 263014 014 009 000 00
164330 2727N 08905W 3759 08007 0391 -230 -556 265014 014 010 000 00
164400 2725N 08905W 3758 08013 0391 -229 -558 269015 015 011 000 00
164430 2722N 08904W 3759 08008 0390 -225 -559 267016 016 011 000 00
164500 2719N 08904W 3758 08011 0393 -225 -560 269016 017 012 000 00
164530 2717N 08903W 3759 08010 0392 -225 -561 266017 017 012 000 00
164600 2714N 08903W 3758 08011 0392 -227 -561 257016 017 015 000 00
164630 2711N 08903W 3759 08013 0393 -225 -562 252017 018 015 000 00
164700 2709N 08902W 3758 08017 0395 -225 -563 251017 018 015 000 00
164730 2706N 08902W 3758 08021 0395 -225 -563 250019 020 016 000 00
164800 2703N 08901W 3758 08015 0394 -222 -563 244019 020 015 000 00
164830 2701N 08901W 3760 08015 0396 -220 -563 239019 020 014 000 00
164900 2658N 08900W 3761 08014 0395 -220 -563 243020 021 017 000 00
164930 2655N 08900W 3759 08018 0397 -219 -563 243021 021 015 000 00
165000 2653N 08900W 3759 08014 0397 -217 -564 242024 025 013 000 00