ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

wide view

[Adoquín]

you can still see the disruptive effect of the uul but not as much as yesterday, you can see her trying to form the fist notwithstanding. Anyone know how fast is that uul moving away from her?

[islandguy246]

could it be relocating at about 13n 55w.. moving south of due west?

[Evil Jeremy]

Eviljeremy What ridge?? There's been no persistent high pressure over the eastern USA and the western Atlantic this season.

This ridge:
[/URL]

Back on topic though, this is the model thread. You can ignore the NAM for tropics, but not for synoptics. GFS is known for under doing ridges. Lets see with the new Euro does.

[Adoquín]

it does seem to be consolidating further east of current coordinates

[Meteorcane]

Looks like center is now reforming farther east good news for PR.

[Adoquín]

Looks like center is now reforming farther east good news for PR.

not necessarily. it all depends on track.

[Aric Dunn]

recon may have found a possible center at 14N 56W but looks more like a boundary wind shift .. or a eddy

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 091648
AF306 0214A MARIA HDOB 46 20110909
163900 1414N 05641W 8424 01563 0083 +177 +112 078014 018 026 000 03
163930 1412N 05641W 8423 01569 0088 +172 +115 072015 017 026 000 03
164000 1411N 05641W 8413 01576 0080 +182 +114 070008 010 027 000 03
164030 1409N 05641W 8426 01562 0080 +184 +114 063005 007 029 000 03
164100 1407N 05641W 8425 01567 0084 +179 +116 061005 007 029 000 03
164130 1406N 05641W 8422 01570 0083 +180 +116 004003 005 029 000 03
164200 1404N 05641W 8421 01569 0083 +180 +118 338004 005 027 000 03
164230 1402N 05641W 8428 01567 0087 +178 +121 266004 006 025 000 03
164300 1401N 05642W 8359 01632 0088 +169 +116 216003 005 /// /// 03
164330 1401N 05644W 8091 01916 0089 +154 +103 217005 007 /// /// 03
164400 1400N 05645W 7800 02225 0080 +141 +089 230010 010 /// /// 03
164430 1400N 05647W 7498 02548 0073 +123 +080 237014 015 /// /// 03
164500 1359N 05648W 7206 02884 0070 +107 +072 243016 019 /// /// 03
164530 1359N 05650W 6991 03142 0068 +094 +065 248019 019 030 001 00
164600 1358N 05652W 6952 03184 0068 +090 +062 245020 020 031 000 03
164630 1358N 05654W 6966 03163 0066 +090 +061 251019 019 031 000 03
164700 1357N 05656W 6973 03154 0069 +090 +060 252019 020 031 000 00
164730 1357N 05658W 6967 03163 0069 +090 +058 255018 019 031 000 00
164800 1357N 05700W 6968 03164 0069 +090 +057 259015 015 031 000 03
164830 1356N 05703W 6969 03163 0070 +090 +055 251014 014 031 000 00

[Adoquín]

what is your guesstimate as to likely coords, Aric?

[AdamFirst]

That's a really impressive wave axis

[tolakram]

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

latest copied image

[artist]

obs 46

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 091651
97779 16474 60140 56900 30400 25020 09068 /3125
RMK AF306 0214A MARIA OB 11
SWS = 31 KTS
LAST REPORT

Decoded-
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 16:51Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 14
Storm Name: Maria (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 16:47Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 14.0N 56.9W
Location: 193 miles (310 km) to the ENE (71°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,040 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 250° at 20 knots (From the WSW at ~ 23.0 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 6°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,125 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 31 knots (~ 35.7mph)
Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

[dwsqos2]

164730 1357N 05658W 6967 03163 0069 +090 +058 255018 019 031 000 00
164800 1357N 05700W 6968 03164 0069 +090 +057 259015 015 031 000 03

Yeah, I don't think that was an eddy. 15-20 knot WSW winds and a wind shift from NE to SW don't make me think eddy.

[Gustywind]

Givent their latest weather forecast, Meteo-France Martinica reported at le Vauclin winds under showers at 65 km/h on average and
gusts to 85 km/h, and gusts reached 100 km/h in higher moutains.

[cycloneye]

The mission is over. Next one departs late this afternoon.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 10/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0314A MARIA
C. 09/2230Z
D. 14.5N 60.5W
E. 09/2330Z TO 10/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[Aric Dunn]

guess we will wont know till the next recon mission.. they are ascending .. oh and those wsw winds were when they started to gain altitude.. not surface.. so looks like nothing there.

[SouthFloridawx]

Do you think they will degenerate it to an open wave? Or leave it as a minimal storm to allow the watches and warnings to remain?

[Frank2]

The NHC plots are south of what appears to be an MLC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

good news because if it strengthens further north of track, then more the likely it is to recurve...

Frank