ATL: IRENE - Models
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otowntiger
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Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:KWT wrote:*Just* south of DR by 48hrs,but my word is that a close call and to be fair it'd be doing damage to the system at that point anyway.
Looks like it strengthened from 1005MB to 1002MB along the southern coast of Hispaniola, it may even be inland now I can't tell.
Strengthening over Hispaniola?
Yeah, that's not going to happen.
Last edited by otowntiger on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tracking along the shore, that'd be close enough to have real negative problems for this system I'd have thought.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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gatorcane
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The trough in question is the one you can start seeing here (18Z GFS 84 hours) that is eroding the ridge over the Northeast..you can see the 996MB line way up in Canada and above that is the low pressure system heading east:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
The second short wave is a bit flatter and oriented from north to south instead of SW to NE this run
18z
12z
18z
12z
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
ROCK wrote:door open
Please excuse my ignorance - when you say "door open" what do you mean? I mean, where do you see this heading if there is an opening? Thanks in advance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
LaBreeze wrote:ROCK wrote:door open
Please excuse my ignorance - when you say "door open" what do you mean? I mean, where do you see this heading if there is an opening? Thanks in advance.
first weakness to pull up into....
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Re: Re:
SFLcane wrote:rockyman wrote:18z GFS is beginning to run a little west of the 12z run
Looks about the same to me actually.
It's a slight difference right now...approaching Day 5 is when the divergence (if any) usually begins
The second trough is definitely "flatter" in the 18z run
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
ROCK wrote:LaBreeze wrote:ROCK wrote:door open
Please excuse my ignorance - when you say "door open" what do you mean? I mean, where do you see this heading if there is an opening? Thanks in advance.
first weakness to pull up into....
gotcha, thanks.
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Still ooks like its going to run along Cuba which would be a good track for Florida, and probably better for Cuba as well rather then a close track just to the south where it could in theory explode.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
I agree, it looks almost identical to the last run as far as track goes.
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gatorcane
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96 hours 18Z GFS, going over alot of Cuba. Trough in question that may turn it is the one caused by the low up in SE Canada (all of the lines at the top of the image above).
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Looks like a pretty similar track to Fay, just maybe a touch more land then Fay had to deal with.
Gatorcane, its right on the coast at 108hrs, could not be a closer call!
Gatorcane, its right on the coast at 108hrs, could not be a closer call!
Last edited by KWT on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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