ATL: IRENE - Models

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KWT
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#1681 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:28 pm

Down to 988mbs over S.Florida...

Gotta have my doubts about that, though to be fair Fay did strengthen overland and it can happen over S.Florida in exceptional circumstances.
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#1682 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:28 pm

Ita actually just offshore the west coast.. riding the coast.. after crossing the keys.
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Re:

#1683 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:28 pm

KWT wrote:Ha spends about 9hrs over water!!!

Not much chance of a powerful system with that sort of track I'd have thought, in total spends about 18hrs over water from Hispaniola to Florida!

PERFECT track for a weaker system into Florida...could not get much better honestly.



I know it's just 1 run, but I agree KWT, this is fantastic news for Florida!, but bad news for the islands that have to act as the sacrificial lamb...
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#1684 Postby storm4u » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:28 pm

18z gfs is junk in my opinion wait until 0z when some of the recon data is in the models
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#1685 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:29 pm

Folks, if we look at the past several runs of the ECMWF and GFS, I think we will find South Florida has been the target for the past 4 runs at least. I'd say there is consistency but we know things can change and the track is not set in stone.

Still I am blown away with how consistent these runs are.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1686 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:29 pm

its off shore to the west of FL the ridge it pushing it back into the GOM....

from 132-138 it switches from the EC of FL to the WC of FL.....ha
Last edited by ROCK on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1687 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Ita actually just offshore the west coast.. riding the coast.. after crossing the keys.


Its riding the coastline Aric, any further west and it would be in the gulf by 144hrs.

Near perfect track for the weakest possible system, maybe a smiudge north over hispaniola but its close enough...

The fact the GFS strengthens it overland shows just how strongly condusive the pattern is, best hope it takes the GFS track and not something a little east/west of it.
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#1688 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:30 pm

Wow...beginning to turn back NW...coming in just east of Apalachicola
Image
Last edited by rockyman on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#1689 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:30 pm

gatorcane wrote:Folks, if we look at the past several runs of the ECMWF and GFS, I think we will find South Florida has been the target for the past 4 runs at least. I'd say there is consistency but we know things can change and the track is not set in stone. We need to closely monitor this situation including everybody along the Gulf coast and SE United States coastline.


for the most part. Florida has been targeted at least 70% of the time since monday. pretty consistent to me.. bet in many years.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1690 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:30 pm

Ridging looks to be building in north of it though. As Ivanhater said earlier today this is going to be very close as to whether or not it gets trapped in the gulf.
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#1691 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:30 pm

Tampa, 989MB 18Z 144 hours:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1692 Postby bella_may » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:31 pm

Hmmmmm perhaps another Ivan?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1693 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:32 pm

bella_may wrote:Hmmmmm perhaps another Ivan?


I hope not, we have some Ivan haters around here...
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#1694 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:33 pm

Elena-esque...but farther east?
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Re: Re:

#1695 Postby KWT » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:33 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I know it's just 1 run, but I agree KWT, this is fantastic news for Florida!, but bad news for the islands that have to act as the sacrificial lamb...


The thing is a fair few of the last few runs from the GFS/ECM have shown this, so its something to take note of.

Maynot even be that bad for Cuba either, much better they face a TS then a 2-3 coming into W.Cuba, which is the other possible solution.

Only would take a 100 miles shift to have a real problem for the panhandle on that run...

Funny how both the GFS and ECM take it up different sides of Florida, pretty good agreement overall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#1696 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:33 pm

If 97L develops as Irene, it would be the second time Irene hit Florida, as Irene did in 1999.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1697 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:35 pm

KWT wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I know it's just 1 run, but I agree KWT, this is fantastic news for Florida!, but bad news for the islands that have to act as the sacrificial lamb...


The thing is a fair few of the last few runs from the GFS/ECM have shown this, so its something to take note of.

Maynot even be that bad for Cuba either, much better they face a TS then a 2-3 coming into W.Cuba, which is the other possible solution.

Only would take a 100 miles shift to have a real problem for the panhandle on that run...

Funny how both the GFS and ECM take it up different sides of Florida, pretty good agreement overall.



yea, now that we have a depression or storm and not an invest, it will be interesting to see if they keep it as a tropical storm and not even forecast a hurricane.
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#1698 Postby rockyman » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:35 pm

18z crosses 30N about 1.5 degrees farther west (84 vs. 82.5)
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Re: Re:

#1699 Postby maxintensity » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:35 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
KWT wrote:Ha spends about 9hrs over water!!!

Not much chance of a powerful system with that sort of track I'd have thought, in total spends about 18hrs over water from Hispaniola to Florida!

PERFECT track for a weaker system into Florida...could not get much better honestly.



I know it's just 1 run, but I agree KWT, this is fantastic news for Florida!, but bad news for the islands that have to act as the sacrificial lamb...
I disagree with both of you. This is not good news for florida at all. The GFS and ECMWF are both showing a very powerful major hurricane for florida due to rapid intensification after cuba. Not sure how that is good news. Katrina made landfall as a strengthening cat 1 in florida and ask how many people there thought it was a walk in the park. With rapid intensification and the potential to ride the spine of florida, this is a catastrophic GFS run for florida.
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#1700 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:38 pm

IT is Irene now.. 14.6N 50mph winds..

00z models will change.. or 12z for sure.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 20, 2011 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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