ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Aric the NHC doesnt think the system will continue moving westward as you stated above. Better news for Puerto Rico now!

[cycloneye]

Excerpt of 5 PM discussion.

IT APPEARS THAT MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS
CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...
THIS MAY BE WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PARTLY FOR THIS REASON...THE NEW TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE
FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING MARIA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

[cycloneye]

Aric the NHC doesnt think the system will continue moving westward as you stated above. Better news for Puerto Rico now!

Well,less winds but still plenty of rain if this new track holds.

[Adoquín]

If find that NW very suspect...without recon spotting the center yet

[hurricaneCW]

Maria is basically Katia part 2 excepted further south so it will not be a bonafide fish.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Aric the NHC doesnt think the system will continue moving westward as you stated above. Better news for Puerto Rico now!

Well,less winds but still plenty of rain if this new track holds.

Yes, but it would have been even worse if the system enters the island from the south, given that the strongest part is in the NE cuadrant. However, you are correct, we should receive plenty of rain from its bands..

[xironman]

This is what I see as interesting on this one. This is the parallel NAM at 60hrs. I am ignoring the track of the TC, I am only looking at the HP at 500mb.

[cycloneye]

Now more distance from my house.

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.1N, 65.4W or about 58.5 miles (94.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 15 hours and 56 minutes from now (Sunday, September 11 at 8:48AM AST).

[floridasun78]

you think nhc will issue correction avd to say moving wnw not nw

[cycloneye]

Aric the NHC doesnt think the system will continue moving westward as you stated above. Better news for Puerto Rico now!

Well,less winds but still plenty of rain if this new track holds.

Yes, but it would have been even worse if the system enters the island from the south, given that the strongest part is in the NE cuadrant. However, you are correct, we should receive plenty of rain from its bands..

As it looks now,it wont be Irene redux in terms of track,unless it changes drasticly.

[Blown Away]

I know most CV systems recurve, but it's remarkable how many systems have taken the same general path into that persistent EC trough weakness over the past couple years. Wonder if we are seeing an overall longterm pattern change?

[Shuriken]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS
CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

-- They better hope it does, because if Maria decouples like proto-Iris did, a LLC will be darting through the Caribbean (and then left up around the eastern periphery of Nate).

[floridasun78]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS
CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

-- They better hope it does, because if Maria decouples like proto-Iris did, a LLC will be darting through the Caribbean (and then left up around the eastern periphery of Nate).

how will that affect track?

[Adoquín]

I must say I am appalled at how recon missions are assigned to Nate compared to Maria. When is the recon supposed to be in there?

[painkillerr]

Now more distance from my house.

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 19.1N, 65.4W or about 58.5 miles (94.2 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 15 hours and 56 minutes from now (Sunday, September 11 at 8:48AM AST).

It doesn't seem that the NHC has the center nailed down. I would not think of starting the BBQ yet.

[Adoquín]

no they do not. but for some reason they tend to spend less flight resources on storms when they are in this location, happens all the time.

[cycloneye]

I must say I am appalled at how recon missions are assigned to Nate compared to Maria. When is the recon supposed to be in there?

The next plane departs at 6:30 PM EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 10/00Z,06Z
B. AFXXX 0314A MARIA
C. 09/2230Z
D. 14.5N 60.5W
E. 09/2330Z TO 10/06Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[gatorcane]

2004 was a rare event for Florida. It may be another 200 years for something like that to happen. To get a Cape Verde system to hit the United States, even Florida, is generally quite difficult as the ridging must be setup just right for that to happen, and most of the time there are sufficient number of mid-continental troughs to break it down just enough to allow recurvature or the ridging is there but there is too much shear so the system doesn't develop and only impacts as a Tropical wave.. Of course some sneak through like Andrew....but generally quite rare. After the 1940s...not many MAJOR hurricane impacted Florida when you think about it.

Most of Florida's systems hit from the south or southwest (e.g. Wilma, Fay...etc), not the east anyway. Probably time to look to the Western/Central Caribbean if there are going to be any Florida threats this season...

[painkillerr]

no they do not. but for some reason they tend to spend less flight resources on storms when they are in this location, happens all the time.

Ahhhh..... why does that doesn't surprise me at all? Let's leave it at that.

[HurrMark]

I know most CV systems recurve, but it's remarkable how many systems have taken the same general path into that persistent EC trough weakness over the past couple years. Wonder if we are seeing an overall longterm pattern change?

I think we are...it's a little off topic, but given the fact that we have only seen two major hurricanes make landfall on the East Coast since Andrew (including Florida), I think something is up...it simply can't just be luck.

That said, It will be interesting to see if the eastward trend continues for Bermuda's sake...I am wondering if they will feel more effects from this than previously anticipated...