WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
^I agree. I think the following days will be crucial, on possibly when will DCI occur and how much can Talas affect Nanmadol's movement.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
NRL = 75kts
Cloud tops warming but I think was just temporary.
Cloud tops warming but I think was just temporary.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 125.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 633 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN
rapidly intensifying to category 4 strength
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 633 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A
24/2121Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE WITH A STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. THE POSITION WAS BASED ON THE SSMIS
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL AND DIFFLUENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 14W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE RYUKYUS (NAZE) AT 24/1200Z SHOW DEEP
(BUT WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW, INDICATIVE OF THE STR PERSISTING NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 24/1200Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU BETWEEN THE EASTERN STR SOUTH OF
JAPAN AND THE WESTERN STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE 500MB
ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 14W SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO
BOTH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
(CURRENT TCFA) LOCATED TO THE EAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AND TRACK NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR UKMO, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
WITH NO INDICATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) OR WEAKENING
OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 14W SHOULD BEGIN DCI WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA
TO THE EAST, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD. DURING THE
LATER TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEGREE OF DCI. THIS FORECAST
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS CLOSER TO JGSM,
GFS, AND ECMWF. NOGAPS AND GFDN TURN THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH A STRONGER DCI FORECAST. DUE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
OF TY 14W, THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 16.0N 125.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0N 125.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.6N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.5N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.5N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.0N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.2N 124.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.3N 125.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 125.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 633 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN
rapidly intensifying to category 4 strength
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 633 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A
24/2121Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE WITH A STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. THE POSITION WAS BASED ON THE SSMIS
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL AND DIFFLUENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 14W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE RYUKYUS (NAZE) AT 24/1200Z SHOW DEEP
(BUT WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW, INDICATIVE OF THE STR PERSISTING NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 24/1200Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU BETWEEN THE EASTERN STR SOUTH OF
JAPAN AND THE WESTERN STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE 500MB
ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 14W SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO
BOTH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
(CURRENT TCFA) LOCATED TO THE EAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
AND TRACK NORTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, EXCEPT FOR UKMO, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
WITH NO INDICATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) OR WEAKENING
OF THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 14W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 14W SHOULD BEGIN DCI WITH THE DEVELOPING AREA
TO THE EAST, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD. DURING THE
LATER TAUS, MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN
NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEGREE OF DCI. THIS FORECAST
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS CLOSER TO JGSM,
GFS, AND ECMWF. NOGAPS AND GFDN TURN THE SYSTEM TOO QUICKLY EASTWARD
WITH A STRONGER DCI FORECAST. DUE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST
OF TY 14W, THIS IS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO.//
NNNN
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Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1221
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Tokyo
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
Morning all!
That ECMWF 12z is very nasty for Okinawa and the islands. Now that Talas has formed it's just a matter of wait and see I suppose. That OHC chart is ominous too, especially for the southern Ryukus!
I have a hunch I may well be on a flight back to Okinawa in a few days for the third time this season!
Off topic, our friend Jim Edds (JTE50) is in eastern Bahamas right now awaiting hurricane Irene, he's due to get hit full on in the next 16 hours or so. Wishing him luck!
That ECMWF 12z is very nasty for Okinawa and the islands. Now that Talas has formed it's just a matter of wait and see I suppose. That OHC chart is ominous too, especially for the southern Ryukus!
I have a hunch I may well be on a flight back to Okinawa in a few days for the third time this season!
Off topic, our friend Jim Edds (JTE50) is in eastern Bahamas right now awaiting hurricane Irene, he's due to get hit full on in the next 16 hours or so. Wishing him luck!
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-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
wow is that a pinhole eye ? probrably much stronger than 75 knots.
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StormingB81
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5676
- Age: 43
- Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
- Location: Rockledge, Florida
WTPQ20 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 16.3N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM SOUTH 100NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 17.6N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 270000UTC 19.3N 125.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 280000UTC 20.9N 124.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1111 NANMADOL (1111)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 16.3N 125.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM SOUTH 100NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 17.6N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 270000UTC 19.3N 125.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 280000UTC 20.9N 124.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
Nanmadol is rapidly intensifying 
The JTWC was very very conservative in the firsts warnings even though the models where predicting a strong cyclone. If I had to estimate its strength I would say it's 90 kt now. This is just an unofficial opinion.
The JTWC was very very conservative in the firsts warnings even though the models where predicting a strong cyclone. If I had to estimate its strength I would say it's 90 kt now. This is just an unofficial opinion.
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:James, If you come here I think it maybe ALOT different then the last time..
Yeah, if this hits from the West and maintains intensity, we could be looking at Songda's bigger sister/brother (how do you tell the sex of a typhoon? LOL)...Muifa didn't have my hair standing on edge. She was a rainmaker that overstayed her welcome and caused some flood damage for sure, but Songda sounded like it was going to blow the darn windows out and did an amazing amount of damage even though the rainfall wasn't notable. I can't imagine what the damage would be like hitting from that side, again, but much more intense.
I fully believe the old adage about West-hitting typhoons now! I wonder what the record is for Okinawa being hit by typhoons. I'm just curious. This would be the 3rd Cat 1 or higher typhoon to impact us this season. I'm not complaining. It's a life experience and looks like I may only have another 10 months here before we have to pack up and head back to the States (booo!). Might as well get some adrenaline rush before we head back to boring California weather for 3-4 years!
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StormingB81
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oaba09
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Wow, another system that may hit okinawa.
I wasn't expecting an intensification like this.
It's only a matter of time before we discover what type of interaction will happen between the 2 systems. There's also the weakening of the steering ridge. There are too many factors(makes this system hard to track).
I wasn't expecting an intensification like this.
It's only a matter of time before we discover what type of interaction will happen between the 2 systems. There's also the weakening of the steering ridge. There are too many factors(makes this system hard to track).
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phwxenthusiast
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Re:
StormingB81 wrote:Infindoll..Do not forget the Tropical storm and tropical depression we got as well....BTW Happy Belated Birthday!
yup Happy Birthday to infidoll!!
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StormingB81
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: Re:
Infdidoll wrote:
Yeah, if this hits from the West and maintains intensity, we could be looking at Songda's bigger sister/brother (how do you tell the sex of a typhoon? LOL)...Muifa didn't have my hair standing on edge. She was a rainmaker that overstayed her welcome and caused some flood damage for sure, but Songda sounded like it was going to blow the darn windows out and did an amazing amount of damage even though the rainfall wasn't notable. I can't imagine what the damage would be like hitting from that side, again, but much more intense.
I wonder what the record is for Okinawa being hit by typhoons. I'm just curious. This would be the 3rd Cat 1 or higher typhoon to impact us this season. I'm not complaining. It's a life experience and looks like I may only have another 10 months here before we have to pack up and head back to the States (booo!). Might as well get some adrenaline rush before we head back to boring California weather for 3-4 years!
It doesn't really make much difference overall which side the storm is approaching from, the differences will be largely local - I guess since you're on the west side then storms approaching from west whack you harder! Whatever direction they come if you're in the front right quad it's going to hurt!
Happy Birthday too
Eagerly awaiting JMA update in 20 mins then ECMWF!
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StormingB81
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phwxenthusiast
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Typhoon (14W/Mina)
JMA up to 75kts now which seems about right to me.
They forecasting it to be up to 90kts gusting 130kts in 72hrs as it heads in direction of Miyako and Ishigaki. I have a feeling those islands could be in for a rough start to next week!
They forecasting it to be up to 90kts gusting 130kts in 72hrs as it heads in direction of Miyako and Ishigaki. I have a feeling those islands could be in for a rough start to next week!
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phwxenthusiast
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