ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

If the models are right on intensity,this will climb bigtime the North Atlantic ACE much more than what Irene did.

What does ACE stand for and mean?

Accumulated Cyclone Energy. More info here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... tion.shtml

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Upper level winds are not that favorable for development near the 10N line ahead of the system. If the system stays near that line in the near term, slow development is possible rather than a quick development as some models are suggesting. Just my 2 cents.



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[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 282355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N23W
EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY W OF THE CENTER FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN
24W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES W AT 10-15 KT.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/2345 UTC 9.3N 24.4W T1.5/1.5 92L

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Breaking News as ATCF puts the low below 10N.

AL, 92, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 93N, 240W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I see that SSD and ATCF are on the same page on the latutude.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00z Best Track

Breaking News as ATCF puts the low below 10N.

AL, 92, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 93N, 240W, 25, 1009, DB

That location is in agreement with the latest SSD Dvorak location.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/2345 UTC 9.3N 24.4W T1.5/1.5 92L

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Breaking News as ATCF puts the low below 10N.

AL, 92, 2011082900, , BEST, 0, 93N, 240W, 25, 1009, DB

That location is in agreement with the latest SSD Dvorak location.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
28/2345 UTC 9.3N 24.4W T1.5/1.5 92L

Finnally,they are on agreement on the position of latitude that is very important down the road.

[cycloneye]

00z Models.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 290025
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0025 UTC MON AUG 29 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922011) 20110829 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110829  0000   110829  1200   110830  0000   110830  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.3N  24.0W    9.4N  25.8W    9.8N  27.8W   10.2N  29.9W
BAMD     9.3N  24.0W    9.5N  26.1W    9.9N  28.2W   10.5N  30.3W
BAMM     9.3N  24.0W    9.6N  25.9W   10.0N  27.7W   10.7N  29.7W
LBAR     9.3N  24.0W    9.4N  26.7W   10.2N  29.6W   11.3N  32.9W
SHIP        25KTS          33KTS          46KTS          59KTS
DSHP        25KTS          33KTS          46KTS          59KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110831  0000   110901  0000   110902  0000   110903  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.7N  31.8W   12.1N  35.1W   14.5N  37.9W   18.1N  41.9W
BAMD    11.0N  32.3W   12.0N  35.8W   13.7N  38.8W   16.7N  42.2W
BAMM    11.4N  31.5W   12.9N  35.1W   15.0N  38.7W   17.6N  43.0W
LBAR    12.5N  36.1W   14.1N  42.4W   13.7N  47.3W   15.6N  44.2W
SHIP        71KTS          89KTS          98KTS         100KTS
DSHP        71KTS          89KTS          98KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.3N LONCUR =  24.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =   9.3N LONM12 =  21.6W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =   9.5N LONM24 =  19.1W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Hurricaneman]

This doesnt look completely stacked, the surface low is at 9.3n while the mid level is at 10.5 from what I can see, so I cant see more than maybe modest development until they stack then off to the races

[DESTRUCTION5]

Faster it develops more likely to re-curve...Been the rule of thumb over the years...

[cycloneye]

Now that we know is below 10N,the question becomes,will it get caught in a weakness being low in latitude?

[expat2carib]

That' s a low rider. Trying to find some precedence. Any input?

[Gustywind]

Remembering that Hurricane Luis birthday 5th September... was TD 28th of August in 1995 and TS the 29th of August 1995 near 11,6 N 29,0W...

[wxman57]

Now that we know is below 10N,the question becomes,will it get caught in a weakness being low in latitude?

I don't think it makes a bit of difference, Luis. Whether it's 9.3N or 6.3N, there's just not much of a ridge to its north to stop it from recurving. It's not just a small weakness to the north that the models indicate, it's a gaping hole 1000 miles wide from about 50W to the U.S. coast. And the faster it develops, the less the risk to the Caribbean. Note the forward speed is only 10-11 kts. That's evidence of just how weak the ridge to the north is.

What's more uncertain is what will happen 8-10 days down the road as it's approaching Bermuda from the southeast. Will there be a ridge to block it and push it toward the east U.S. coast? Don't see anything like that now.

[Gustywind]

Oh boy Luis was a strong one and let's hope that 92L stay away of any land...

[Gustywind]

18z guidance:

[img]http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/6250/18zatcfearlyinvest3best.gif[ /img]

Curiously, the outlier model is showing something in the islands especially at Guadeloupe latitude. Let's wait and see what could happen during the next couple of days...

[Hurricaneman]

That' s a low rider. Trying to find some precedence. Any input?

2004 Ivan
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

dolly 2002
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Georges 1998
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Isadore 1996
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Pablo 1995
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Isadore 1990
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Anna 1969
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Flora 1963
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Donna 1960
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

formed 10n or south of and 40w or east of

[wxman57]

Now find the dozens and dozens and dozens that formed there and were fish storms.

[Elsiecoro]

excuse my amateur question, but trying to figure a plot by lat/long where
a storm forms, is similar to hebert box logic???

works when you look back, but cant foretell path to come

[bexar]

I just wanna ask if the conditions ahead of it are conducive? or will it end up like 90L?