ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#181 Postby SapphireSea » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:21 pm

The FIM model is a bit suspect with keeping that low in the eastern plains for so long. That feature would probably amplify a trough, but it would come and go by much faster than forecast. I suspect that the correct track would be further north with this in the short-mid term then further west late in the package. Im rather surprised the GFDL and HWRF are in somewhat agreement with the short-mid term.
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#182 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:35 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#183 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:36 pm

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Re: Re:

#184 Postby maxx9512 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:45 pm

painkillerr wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
painkillerr wrote:This has trouble written all over it. It's difficult to imagine that we may have two hurricanes over Puerto Rico in the same season.


I also have a bad feeling about this one. Can you imagine if that occurs after we endured the Irene landfall? But history shows that PR has been thru more than one landfall on a season in the 1800's.



Oh I'm sure it's happened before Luis. But the timing would be lousy right now. Not that there is a "good" time for two storms to make landfall on the same location during one season.


Hey guys, Florida knows how that feels after the 2004 season! Hopefully it avoids your area.
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#185 Postby Gustywind » Mon Sep 05, 2011 3:50 pm

05/1800 UTC 9.8N 30.2W T1.5/1.5 95L -- Atlantic
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Re: JB: pattern loaded next 3 weeks. gives highest threat a

#186 Postby CronkPSU » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:07 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
rainstorm wrote:BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pattern loaded next 3 weeks folks. The red area is most likely . Tracks of impact storms included pic.twitter.com/v4137up


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/st ... 74/photo/1

hatteras to new orleans


JB is pumped up bigtime with this.



Yea he is, but JB also said(tweeted) that Katia would slam into the eastern coast once it developed into a tropical storm.


he's not wrong yet...euro +96

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#187 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:15 pm

18Z GFS rolls in 15....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#188 Postby Blown Away » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image


Wow, is that a classic CV path of destruction track, hopefully we don't get a big one out of this!
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#189 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:34 pm

18z GFS Initialized (nothing yet +24 intervals)

Image

18z GFS +24 (nada)

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#190 Postby Caribwxgirl » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:40 pm

I just hope this one goes out to sea and we don't have an hurricane Gilbert of 1988 type of thing in my area. Although I am probably just making that comparison because of the close proximity to Gilbert's formation date...It developed from a TW on September 8th and quickly became a TS then a major hurricane by the 12th when it hit Jamaica squarely down the middle!
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Re:

#191 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:50 pm

Caribwxgirl wrote:I just hope this one goes out to sea and we don't have an hurricane Gilbert of 1988 type of thing in my area. Although I am probably just making that comparison because of the close proximity to Gilbert's formation date...It developed from a TW on September 8th and quickly became a TS then a major hurricane by the 12th when it hit Jamaica squarely down the middle!


Hopefully, this one misses all landmasses down the road because I have the feeling that it will be a strong one. We are almost at the peak of the season and seeing this now in the position where it is is common. The important thing to do is to be prepared if this goes to any area of the Caribbean and beyond.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#192 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:54 pm

This one has all the hallmarks of being the potentially strongest storm of the season, and this one bears watching

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#193 Postby otowntiger » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:04 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote::uarrow: Could future Maria be Irene's twin sister???

Until proven otherwise I'm of the strong opinion that this one is a big re-curver too. I will not buy into the models at this time. At this stage models have proven to be very very wrong on just about every storm this season. I may be mistaken but it seems that the models have predicted doom and gloom for Florida and points west for most of these systems last year and so far this year that they are not at all trustworthy this far out.



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#194 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:05 pm

:uarrow: but models arent bombing this one...they seem to not like it for development.
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#195 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:10 pm

18z GFS has nothing +90

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#196 Postby Vortex » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:11 pm

18Z GFS H90 approaching the leewards...nearly spot on when comparing the 12Z at this point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#197 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:12 pm

I believe 95L is about to enter ther islands at that point.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#198 Postby bigdan35 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:13 pm

99hrs over the islands
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#199 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:15 pm

Cycloneeye...the models you posted seem pretty well clustered atm?...
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#200 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:16 pm

Ridging looks a little weaker this run. If 95l actually develops, it can start a recurve track near the Leewards....though it may not spare the Leewards or Puerto Rico.

It's looking like just too much trouginess over the Western Atlantic to get a bonafied Cape Verde hurricane to the United States
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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