ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The FIM model is a bit suspect with keeping that low in the eastern plains for so long. That feature would probably amplify a trough, but it would come and go by much faster than forecast. I suspect that the correct track would be further north with this in the short-mid term then further west late in the package. Im rather surprised the GFDL and HWRF are in somewhat agreement with the short-mid term.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

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Re: Re:
painkillerr wrote:cycloneye wrote:painkillerr wrote:This has trouble written all over it. It's difficult to imagine that we may have two hurricanes over Puerto Rico in the same season.
I also have a bad feeling about this one. Can you imagine if that occurs after we endured the Irene landfall? But history shows that PR has been thru more than one landfall on a season in the 1800's.
Oh I'm sure it's happened before Luis. But the timing would be lousy right now. Not that there is a "good" time for two storms to make landfall on the same location during one season.
Hey guys, Florida knows how that feels after the 2004 season! Hopefully it avoids your area.
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Re: JB: pattern loaded next 3 weeks. gives highest threat a
ConvergenceZone wrote:cycloneye wrote:rainstorm wrote:BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Pattern loaded next 3 weeks folks. The red area is most likely . Tracks of impact storms included pic.twitter.com/v4137up
http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi/st ... 74/photo/1
hatteras to new orleans
JB is pumped up bigtime with this.
Yea he is, but JB also said(tweeted) that Katia would slam into the eastern coast once it developed into a tropical storm.
he's not wrong yet...euro +96

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
cycloneye wrote:
Wow, is that a classic CV path of destruction track, hopefully we don't get a big one out of this!
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- Jevo
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18z GFS Initialized (nothing yet +24 intervals)

18z GFS +24 (nada)


18z GFS +24 (nada)

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I just hope this one goes out to sea and we don't have an hurricane Gilbert of 1988 type of thing in my area. Although I am probably just making that comparison because of the close proximity to Gilbert's formation date...It developed from a TW on September 8th and quickly became a TS then a major hurricane by the 12th when it hit Jamaica squarely down the middle!
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:I just hope this one goes out to sea and we don't have an hurricane Gilbert of 1988 type of thing in my area. Although I am probably just making that comparison because of the close proximity to Gilbert's formation date...It developed from a TW on September 8th and quickly became a TS then a major hurricane by the 12th when it hit Jamaica squarely down the middle!
Hopefully, this one misses all landmasses down the road because I have the feeling that it will be a strong one. We are almost at the peak of the season and seeing this now in the position where it is is common. The important thing to do is to be prepared if this goes to any area of the Caribbean and beyond.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
This one has all the hallmarks of being the potentially strongest storm of the season, and this one bears watching
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote::uarrow: Could future Maria be Irene's twin sister???
Until proven otherwise I'm of the strong opinion that this one is a big re-curver too. I will not buy into the models at this time. At this stage models have proven to be very very wrong on just about every storm this season. I may be mistaken but it seems that the models have predicted doom and gloom for Florida and points west for most of these systems last year and so far this year that they are not at all trustworthy this far out.
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18z GFS has nothing +90


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Cycloneeye...the models you posted seem pretty well clustered atm?...
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- gatorcane
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Ridging looks a little weaker this run. If 95l actually develops, it can start a recurve track near the Leewards....though it may not spare the Leewards or Puerto Rico.
It's looking like just too much trouginess over the Western Atlantic to get a bonafied Cape Verde hurricane to the United States
It's looking like just too much trouginess over the Western Atlantic to get a bonafied Cape Verde hurricane to the United States
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Sep 05, 2011 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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