ATL: NATE - Remnants - Discussion

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071700
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 05 20110907
165030 2650N 08859W 3759 08020 0398 -215 -562 241025 026 013 000 00
165100 2647N 08859W 3759 08018 0399 -215 -561 241026 027 012 000 00
165130 2645N 08858W 3761 08017 0399 -214 -560 240029 031 009 001 00
165200 2642N 08858W 3760 08020 0400 -215 -558 242029 030 015 000 00
165230 2639N 08857W 3759 08016 0400 -213 -556 239034 036 017 000 00
165300 2637N 08857W 3758 08026 0403 -210 -552 234037 037 016 000 00
165330 2634N 08857W 3759 08019 0402 -207 -550 236040 042 014 000 00
165400 2632N 08856W 3759 08022 0403 -202 -547 237045 047 013 000 00
165430 2629N 08856W 3759 08022 0403 -199 -544 237048 048 013 000 00
165500 2627N 08855W 3759 08026 0404 -199 -541 238049 050 015 000 00
165530 2624N 08855W 3754 08040 0405 -201 -511 238049 050 014 000 00
165600 2622N 08855W 3762 08018 0405 -197 -337 234050 051 016 000 00
165630 2619N 08854W 3759 08022 0406 -196 -299 235049 050 017 000 00
165700 2617N 08854W 3760 08025 0406 -195 -268 236047 049 017 000 00
165730 2614N 08853W 3758 08026 0407 -195 -250 238046 046 016 000 00
165800 2612N 08853W 3758 08026 0408 -198 -257 238046 046 017 000 00
165830 2609N 08853W 3759 08027 0409 -199 -247 236044 044 016 000 00
165900 2607N 08852W 3758 08033 0409 -198 -237 232041 042 017 000 00
165930 2604N 08852W 3759 08031 0410 -200 -240 233040 041 019 000 00
170000 2602N 08851W 3760 08031 0409 -200 -236 230038 039 018 001 00
$$

[HeeBGBz]

From the visable loop, it looks to be getting some counter-clockwise swirl to it.

[rainstorm]

Looking at the WV loop, does this thing even have a chance? A lot of dry air all around this storm.

it has a chance if it stays way south. if it heads north it might be another lee at best. dry stable air in the north gom and it will encounter shear as well.

[Jevo]

The gfs is trending progressively weaker. Might it be a good idea not to call this disturbance future Nate?

I've never been a fan of calling an Invest a "future" named.. Especially when globals don't agree.. But, people will do it.. It's a wait and see.. As of right now I dont find creedence in giving 96L a bears watching stamp just yet

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071710
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 06 20110907
170030 2559N 08851W 3759 08028 0411 -200 -235 228037 038 020 000 00
170100 2557N 08851W 3759 08027 0411 -200 -234 226037 037 021 000 00
170130 2554N 08850W 3759 08029 0412 -201 -237 224036 037 021 000 00
170200 2552N 08850W 3759 08031 0413 -204 -239 226035 036 022 000 00
170230 2549N 08849W 3759 08033 0413 -204 -234 227033 035 022 000 00
170300 2547N 08849W 3759 08031 0412 -200 -219 224032 032 022 000 00
170330 2544N 08849W 3758 08038 0412 -200 -211 222033 033 023 000 00
170400 2542N 08848W 3758 08037 0413 -197 -204 223033 033 023 000 00
170430 2539N 08848W 3759 08038 0415 -196 -202 221032 033 024 000 03
170500 2537N 08847W 3759 08034 0415 -197 -201 222033 034 025 000 00
170530 2534N 08847W 3764 08024 0416 -196 -204 223032 032 024 000 00
170600 2532N 08847W 3761 08032 0417 -197 -206 224030 030 024 000 00
170630 2530N 08846W 3761 08033 0419 -198 -206 224030 031 023 000 00
170700 2527N 08846W 3761 08036 0421 -197 -203 227029 030 023 001 00
170730 2525N 08846W 3759 08042 0424 -195 -205 223029 029 024 001 00
170800 2523N 08845W 3761 08039 0427 -199 -205 225030 031 025 000 00
170830 2521N 08845W 3761 08049 0430 -193 -207 227028 029 028 000 00
170900 2519N 08845W 3761 08050 0433 -193 -206 230028 028 027 000 00
170930 2517N 08844W 3761 08050 0436 -192 -208 230028 030 027 000 00
171000 2515N 08844W 3759 08055 0437 -192 -206 226030 031 025 000 00
$$

[HurrMark]

It doesn't look like there is a low level circulation...maybe a slight hint of a MLC, but it is very poorly organized. We will see what recon discovers...

[wxman57]

I see strong cyclonic circulation in obs (west winds at 25 kts in southern MX), but it looks like a frontal low presently, with convection displaced west of the LLC. Whenever a moderate front makes it to the BoC, the air naturally rushes down the east coast of MX then swirls counter-clockwise in the BoC, as we're seeing now, but that doesn't make the lows that form TDs. Don't think it warrants an upgrade to TD. Will need more time to develop. Not buying Euro solution taking it northward at this time. Favor little or no movement then westerly drift as per GFS for now.

[clfenwi]

12Z CMC at 102h



Loop

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, where do you think the circulation center might be forming? Obviously, farther north might lead to some NGOM issues later on.

its approx 19.7N 92W

easily seen here doing a small cyclonic loop to the NE right now. overall motion is still basically stationary. recon nearly there should find a TD maybe a TS in convection on south side.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html


actually there is two competing swirls circled in the image. farthest west one is stationary and presently seems more symmetric the other is elongated and should continue to rotate around. once more convection builds they should consolidate.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071720
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 07 20110907
171030 2513N 08844W 3759 08059 0439 -191 -206 226029 029 024 000 00
171100 2511N 08843W 3758 08065 0440 -194 -201 224029 031 025 000 00
171130 2510N 08843W 3762 08062 0443 -190 -201 229031 032 025 000 00
171200 2508N 08843W 3760 08061 0443 -189 -206 229030 031 024 000 00
171230 2506N 08843W 3759 08059 0443 -187 -205 227032 032 022 000 00
171300 2504N 08842W 3758 08062 0441 -190 -198 224033 035 021 000 00
171330 2503N 08842W 3761 08060 0441 -189 -196 222033 034 022 000 00
171400 2501N 08842W 3761 08066 0444 -185 -199 221032 033 022 000 03
171430 2459N 08842W 3760 08064 0445 -184 -203 218032 033 022 000 03
171500 2458N 08841W 3762 08061 0449 -180 -208 219031 031 022 000 03
171530 2456N 08841W 3762 08067 0450 -180 -212 220028 029 /// /// 03
171600 2454N 08841W 3759 08071 0452 -183 -211 219027 028 017 001 03
171630 2453N 08841W 3781 08028 0449 -185 -202 220028 028 /// /// 03
171700 2451N 08840W 3792 08005 0447 -184 -197 220029 029 021 001 03
171730 2450N 08840W 3826 07932 0440 -177 -191 217029 029 022 000 00
171800 2448N 08840W 3867 07846 0431 -170 -197 213029 029 022 000 00
171830 2446N 08840W 3881 07824 0426 -168 -195 215029 029 021 000 00
171900 2444N 08839W 3928 07724 0414 -163 -210 217029 030 019 000 00
171930 2442N 08839W 3965 07652 0406 -160 -180 215029 030 020 000 00
172000 2440N 08839W 3987 07610 0402 -160 -172 219027 028 020 000 00

[clfenwi]

Plane has started to descend to operational altitude. I might not be able to keep up with obs... so if anyone notices a long gap is probably because I'm busy... feel free to take over if that happens.

[wxman57]

Easy to see where the vortex is, as it's not obscured by clouds:

[Ptarmigan]

I know this is from the NAM model.

[clfenwi]

AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 08 20110907
172030 2438N 08838W 4038 07505 0390 -153 -168 221027 028 019 001 00
172100 2436N 08838W 4082 07425 0384 -149 -163 224027 027 015 000 00
172130 2434N 08838W 4124 07345 0379 -144 -157 223026 026 014 001 00
172200 2432N 08837W 4157 07283 0376 -135 -160 229027 028 017 001 00
172230 2429N 08837W 4173 07254 0375 -135 -156 230026 027 020 000 00
172300 2427N 08837W 4187 07237 0374 -135 -151 227025 025 021 000 00
172330 2425N 08836W 4189 07228 0373 -130 -157 221025 026 021 000 00
172400 2422N 08836W 4177 07245 0371 -133 -157 220024 024 021 000 00
172430 2420N 08836W 4163 07273 0371 -135 -155 222023 024 021 001 00
172500 2418N 08836W 4142 07313 0374 -138 -155 216023 024 024 000 00
172530 2415N 08835W 4115 07358 0375 -142 -156 216024 025 022 000 00
172600 2413N 08835W 4097 07394 0380 -146 -156 215022 022 023 001 00
172630 2410N 08835W 4150 07301 0373 -143 -153 220021 022 025 001 00
172700 2408N 08834W 4222 07164 0364 -135 -139 224024 025 023 002 00
172730 2405N 08834W 4273 07075 0359 -125 -137 234028 030 025 001 00
172800 2403N 08834W 4319 06988 0353 -125 -127 239031 032 022 001 00
172830 2400N 08834W 4358 06921 0349 -120 -127 238030 031 023 001 00
172900 2358N 08833W 4399 06849 0344 -117 -128 240031 032 022 001 00
172930 2355N 08833W 4435 06788 0340 -108 -124 236031 032 025 001 00
173000 2353N 08833W 4458 06748 0337 -111 -114 237026 028 025 002 00

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071740
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 09 20110907
173030 2350N 08832W 4469 06731 0337 -108 //// 235020 022 030 004 01
173100 2348N 08832W 4463 06743 0343 -102 //// 217016 017 030 006 05
173130 2346N 08833W 4463 06735 0339 -100 //// 229016 016 034 007 05
173200 2344N 08835W 4457 06754 0338 -100 //// 218020 022 034 008 01
173230 2342N 08837W 4466 06736 0336 -100 //// 212024 025 034 011 01
173300 2341N 08838W 4467 06734 0338 -099 //// 204023 023 034 008 01
173330 2339N 08840W 4463 06738 0341 -100 //// 209025 026 035 007 01
173400 2337N 08842W 4463 06746 0344 -100 //// 196022 023 040 010 01
173430 2336N 08844W 4464 06741 0344 -101 //// 209022 023 046 015 01
173500 2334N 08845W 4466 06741 0344 -098 //// 211016 019 054 031 05
173530 2332N 08847W 4461 06748 0343 -099 //// 224005 009 055 027 01
173600 2330N 08849W 4461 06746 0341 -097 //// 197002 003 045 027 05
173630 2329N 08850W 4461 06737 0335 -095 //// 265002 005 042 011 05
173700 2327N 08851W 4463 06730 0330 -096 //// 307007 011 035 007 05
173730 2324N 08852W 4468 06721 0328 -096 //// 008001 005 036 008 01
173800 2322N 08853W 4464 06717 0326 -100 //// 258008 009 035 009 01
173830 2320N 08854W 4466 06737 0340 -100 //// 269012 013 038 011 01
173900 2317N 08855W 4462 06745 0342 -100 //// 280013 014 042 013 01
173930 2315N 08856W 4460 06751 0344 -104 //// 266010 011 047 012 01
174000 2312N 08857W 4463 06740 0341 -100 //// 252011 012 047 013 01

[Brent]

2pm TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE.

[clfenwi]

URNT15 KNHC 071751
AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 10 20110907
174030 2310N 08858W 4463 06741 0341 -103 //// 238015 018 046 013 01
174100 2307N 08859W 4462 06745 0342 -105 //// 228022 023 045 013 01
174130 2305N 08900W 4466 06741 0341 -106 //// 221023 024 043 011 01
174200 2302N 08901W 4463 06747 0341 -105 //// 220024 025 041 012 01
174230 2300N 08902W 4466 06742 0344 -105 //// 208024 024 /// /// 05
174300 2259N 08905W 4461 06741 0339 -105 //// 204021 023 034 011 05
174330 2259N 08908W 4490 06698 0343 -102 //// 209022 024 033 011 05
174400 2257N 08910W 4653 06432 0333 -087 //// 200025 026 /// /// 05
174430 2255N 08912W 4879 06065 0314 -069 //// 196024 025 /// /// 05
174500 2254N 08914W 5120 05691 0291 -051 //// 198026 027 /// /// 05
174530 2252N 08915W 5324 05379 0272 -035 //// 198023 024 035 003 05
174600 2251N 08917W 5518 05094 0099 -023 //// 206026 028 037 011 05
174630 2250N 08920W 5709 04822 0106 -008 //// 210027 028 041 011 01
174700 2249N 08922W 5940 04488 0125 -009 //// 215028 029 039 011 01
174730 2248N 08924W 6176 04195 //// -012 //// 201024 026 037 009 05
174800 2247N 08926W 6437 03857 //// +001 //// 205021 022 /// /// 05
174830 2246N 08928W 6682 03547 //// +029 //// 200026 029 036 008 05
174900 2245N 08929W 6890 03302 0172 +043 //// 208023 026 035 009 01
174930 2244N 08931W 7138 03002 //// +052 //// 207020 023 033 009 05
175000 2243N 08932W 7412 02686 0170 +069 //// 217017 019 032 008 05
$$

[clfenwi]

12Z Euro 48h

[clfenwi]

AF300 01IIA INVEST HDOB 11 20110907
175030 2242N 08934W 7678 02388 0148 +102 +094 219016 017 033 008 03
175100 2241N 08936W 7943 02109 0150 +123 +105 224014 015 /// /// 03
175130 2240N 08937W 8223 01811 0159 +120 +116 217011 012 031 013 03
175200 2238N 08939W 8429 01596 0140 +153 +127 201014 015 033 009 00
175230 2237N 08940W 8644 01380 0133 +172 +138 206011 013 031 010 00
175300 2236N 08942W 8886 01157 0148 +171 +148 221008 009 031 011 00
175330 2235N 08943W 9138 00902 0142 +184 +159 293007 009 035 011 00
175400 2234N 08945W 9409 00643 0132 +198 +169 309007 009 032 010 00
175430 2233N 08946W 9662 00401 0120 +204 +178 329005 006 029 009 00
175500 2232N 08947W 9705 00357 0115 +197 +187 342005 005 039 009 00
175530 2231N 08948W 9697 00366 0114 +202 +194 351006 007 031 007 00
175600 2230N 08950W 9699 00364 0113 +210 +201 359005 005 032 005 00
175630 2229N 08951W 9699 00363 0115 +195 //// 359006 007 036 008 01
175700 2228N 08952W 9699 00363 0114 +196 //// 012007 008 037 010 01
175730 2227N 08954W 9700 00362 0111 +214 //// 015009 010 026 011 01
175800 2226N 08955W 9700 00362 0111 +220 +218 013010 010 026 009 00
175830 2225N 08956W 9700 00362 0111 +219 //// 013011 012 023 002 05
175900 2224N 08957W 9701 00361 0111 +219 //// 010011 012 023 002 01
175930 2222N 08958W 9699 00363 0111 +217 //// 018010 010 019 003 01
180000 2221N 08959W 9699 00362 //// +215 //// 031011 012 025 003 01

[stormhunter7]

Recon is north of Merida, MX now... i see several vortices in this area (BOC) but have a hard time seeing one main coc. I think we have a broad circulation thats still attached to the front/trough. Things can change in a hour or two when recon samples the area... i do see strong west winds on the north side of this mess and strong east winds along MX coast. I just think it may be to broad for an Upgrade to TD ATTM... but since we have AF Recon inbound... lets see if they can close off an area!