ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[hurricanejustin]

Air Force Met - I really trust your opinion so I wanted to ask you...what is your HUNCH as to where this thing will make landfall?

[perk]

Who wants an Impact weather update? Here ya go!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NJxLrIv ... dded#at=11

That was a very good update, thanks for posting it Ivan.

[ROCK]

Air Force Met - I really trust your opinion so I wanted to ask you...what is your HUNCH as to where this thing will make landfall?

Justin, typically METS cannot make that type of prediction on here...not trying to speak for AFM...just saying...

[JSDS]

YouTube is blocked at work. Can anyone give me the gist of Impact's update?

[GCANE]

To me, it looks like an equatorward outflow channel could be trying to kick in.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-wv.html

Most likely from the hot-towers that fired earlier this morning.

[Ivanhater]

YouTube is blocked at work. Can anyone give me the gist of Impact's update?

Catagory 1 to moderate Catagory 2 Hurricane into the Central Texas coast, maybe further north.

[Tireman4]

This is what AFM said, I think, yesterday:


So…IMO…landfall probably north of the Rio Grande…b/w Corpus and Matagorda. But as with anything…a lot depends on when it gets a LLC. Given the warm waters (higher than normal TCHP) unusually close to the coast, pretty moist environment and favorable FORECASTED (note the concern) upper level environment, I see no reason why we shouldn’t see a hurricane IF (BIG OLD IF) it can get going in the first place.

In other words: Once it GETS going…it SHOULD go.

[crazy4disney]

YouTube is blocked at work. Can anyone give me the gist of Impact's update?

I was just about to post the exact same thing. Thank you to anyone who's willing to summarize for those of us at work!

-gina-

[Snow Deprived365]

YouTube is blocked at work. Can anyone give me the gist of Impact's update?

Matagorda area landfall. Cat 1 or borderline Cat 2.

[HurricaneBrain]

YouTube is blocked at work. Can anyone give me the gist of Impact's update?

Off topic but search on Google for proxy servers. You can access any site from a proxy website. Don't get in trouble.

[ROCK]

I dont hold the GFS in high regard right now as all of you know....something is wrong with it, IMO....

that said here is the latest 0Z NOGAPS....purely for entertainment purposes...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[tolakram]

There's an outside chance the LLC is over land at the moment. No idea if they would delay recon for that. Looking at the low level inflow makes it appear the LLC is very very close to the tip of the Yuk.

[NDG]

How heart broken it is to get to my lap top and not see any recon reports yet

[cycloneye]

There's an outside chance the LLC is over land at the moment. No idea if they would delay recon for that. Looking at the low level inflow makes it appear the LLC is very very close to the tip of the Yuk.

That is a good point.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met - I really trust your opinion so I wanted to ask you...what is your HUNCH as to where this thing will make landfall?

As a guess...60 miles either side of Matagorda. Winds 80 MPH...+/- 15 MPH...sometime Friday evening.

Untill we get an LLC...that's just a guess based on the flow of the models and what I think will be good conditions for strengthening during the last 24 hours before landfall.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We will probably have a Tropical Depression at 5PM based on the image below.

[JSDS]

Thanks to all who posted the update for those of us without youtube. I'm in SE Louisiana, but have a daughter & son in law in Galveston and am trying to keep up with the latest. Kind of glad they are still renting after losing their home to Ike...

[mobilebay]

it is trending toward the upper texas coast

[SouthDadeFish]

I've heard rumors that they took off but returned back to base. Not sure why, maybe because of center over land. Just a rumor.

[tolakram]

20 frame loop.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Anyone not thinking this is going to develop and pointing out outflow boundaries miles from the center needs to observe this loop. *cough* The engine started yesterday evening and has been running ever since, it's just a matter of time and strength.