ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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SouthDadeFish
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Re: Re:

#1841 Postby SouthDadeFish » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:32 pm

poof121 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:


I'm closer than you if that's what we need to do... :)


Well what are you waiting for then? :P
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Re: Re:

#1842 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:33 pm

poof121 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:


I'm closer than you if that's what we need to do... :)


Yes please. Ply them with food. That always gets results..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1843 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:34 pm

gboudx wrote:
If this was a potential Cat 3+ bearing down on the TX coast, I would agree with you. But with many reservoirs in Central TX almost bone dry, this minimal storm could be a real blessing. Livestock and trees are dying due to this exceptional drought. I'm sure the local authorities will warn people to flash flooding.


A minimal storm would be good...a 70-85kt hurricane however would probably do more harm then good at least in the area that it hits, of course if your to the east and far enough away from the center not to worry too much about the winds then it'll be good because of the rains.
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Re: Re:

#1844 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:37 pm

poof121 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:


I'm closer than you if that's what we need to do... :)


You might be a little closer. Hattiesburg is only 55-60 miles from there.
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dwsqos2

Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Recon

#1845 Postby dwsqos2 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:39 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 271728
97779 17250 40279 89600 73100 99005 65//2 /5761
RMK AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 01
;
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#1846 Postby RL3AO » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:39 pm

Its alive!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1847 Postby nicole » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:39 pm

How much longer till this thing moves out more into the GOM..the next 6-12hrs?...Thats the part I'm anxious about!! Also, how favorable are conditions for this to intensify??
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#1848 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:40 pm

463
URNT11 KNHC 271728
97779 17250 40279 89600 73100 99005 65//2 /5761
RMK AF300 01DDA INVEST OB 01
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#1849 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:41 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Looks like it is starting to get a move on again to the W or WNW....and it is not organizing quickly.

Hopefully it will just run out of time to really do anything (quite possible in my opinion)..and shear dry air should also help keep it in check...NAM and GFS are showing only marginally conducive upper-level conditions across the Central and Northern GOM.

Could it become a named system, sure, can't argue that. But so did Brett and Cindy but those were rather insignificant systems that were of subtropical origin that global models such as the GFS and ECMWF did not do well with.

Conditions are not going to be ideal in the GOM it looks like unless it stays on a course towards Mexico where conditions are more favorable in the Southern GOM.

I really can't see a major hurricane or even a hurricane for that matter out of this headed for the NW GOM. Surely the global models would have sniffed it out already.

A small TS though is another story.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:45 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re:

#1850 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:41 pm

RL3AO wrote:Its alive!


Finally!!!!!!
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#1851 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:42 pm

And we're off :-)
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Re:

#1852 Postby jabman98 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:42 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The media has mentioned very little about 90L.

It was one of the top stories on two local Houston news shows at noon today (Channel 2, Channel 13). They don't think it's going to be much more than a much needed rainmaker, but they did cover it. If it gets upgraded today, especially to a named storm, I think there will be much more coverage. We're desperate for rain, so anything that might bring some is news here.
Last edited by jabman98 on Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1853 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:44 pm

jabman98 wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:The media has mentioned very little about 90L.

It was one of the top stories on two local Houston news shows at noon today (Channel 2, Channel 11). They don't think it's going to be much more than a much needed rainmaker, but they did cover it. If it gets upgraded today, especially to a named storm, I think there will be much more coverage. We're desperate for rain, so anything that might bring some is news here.


I can also assure Texans along the coast that your disaster officials are also closely monitoring the situation and preparing as necessary.
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#1854 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:44 pm

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 17:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 01

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 17:25Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.9N 89.6W
Location: 146 miles (235 km) between the SSE and S (169°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -15°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,610 geopotential meters
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Re: Re:

#1855 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:45 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
poof121 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:I could drive down to Keesler and ask them what's up if you guys want me to! :lol:


I'm closer than you if that's what we need to do... :)


Yes please. Ply them with food. That always gets results..


Seems like the food did the trick. :ggreen: They are in route now!
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#1856 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:45 pm

405
URNT15 KNHC 271743
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 01 20110727
164800 3025N 08855W 0131 ///// 0105 +289 +262 360000 000 /// /// 23
164830 3025N 08855W 0123 ///// 0100 +277 +262 195002 004 /// /// 23
164900 3024N 08856W 0003 00110 0117 +253 //// 194005 008 /// /// 05
164930 3023N 08857W 9797 00294 0130 +239 //// 001003 005 /// /// 05
165000 3022N 08858W 9786 00307 0134 +241 //// 337004 004 /// /// 05
165030 3020N 08859W 9723 00364 0135 +239 +237 314005 006 /// /// 03
165100 3019N 08900W 9373 00682 0130 +221 //// 326005 005 /// /// 05
165130 3018N 08901W 8944 01090 0129 +197 //// 028002 003 /// /// 05
165200 3016N 08902W 8607 01419 //// +174 //// 329001 002 /// /// 05
165230 3015N 08904W 8276 01756 //// +155 //// 326003 003 /// /// 05
165300 3014N 08905W 7977 02070 //// +142 //// 350004 005 /// /// 05
165330 3012N 08906W 7716 02350 //// +130 //// 352005 006 /// /// 05
165400 3011N 08907W 7465 02629 //// +115 //// 008006 006 /// /// 05
165430 3010N 08909W 7224 02905 //// +102 //// 015005 005 /// /// 05
165500 3008N 08910W 6968 03203 //// +083 //// 015003 004 /// /// 05
165530 3007N 08911W 6742 03477 //// +068 //// 014003 004 /// /// 05
165600 3005N 08912W 6539 03729 //// +057 //// 167002 003 /// /// 05
165630 3004N 08912W 6349 03969 //// +046 //// 187004 005 /// /// 05
165700 3002N 08913W 6181 04190 //// +035 //// 154002 003 /// /// 05
165730 3000N 08914W 6033 04387 //// +023 //// 088004 006 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re:

#1857 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:46 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:And we're off :-)


...to see the wizard? 8-)
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#1858 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:46 pm

552
URNT15 KNHC 271744
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 02 20110727
165800 2959N 08915W 5897 04574 //// +018 //// 082009 010 /// /// 05
165830 2957N 08916W 5750 04778 //// +007 //// 080009 009 /// /// 05
165900 2955N 08917W 5602 04988 //// -006 //// 063005 006 /// /// 05
165930 2953N 08917W 5475 05172 0274 -016 //// 042004 005 /// /// 05
170000 2952N 08918W 5320 05400 0288 -028 //// 026003 003 /// /// 05
170030 2950N 08919W 5203 05584 0304 -040 //// 015002 003 /// /// 05
170100 2948N 08920W 5098 05744 0315 -047 //// 349003 004 /// /// 05
170130 2946N 08921W 5000 05901 0327 -056 //// 001006 006 /// /// 05
170200 2945N 08922W 4916 06030 0334 -063 //// 004006 006 /// /// 05
170230 2943N 08922W 4815 06194 0344 -072 //// 350004 005 /// /// 05
170300 2941N 08923W 4722 06345 0353 -079 //// 329003 004 /// /// 05
170330 2939N 08923W 4656 06452 0358 -083 //// 281003 003 /// /// 05
170400 2937N 08924W 4568 06599 0366 -092 //// 269005 005 /// /// 05
170430 2935N 08924W 4496 06723 0375 -095 //// 267006 007 /// /// 05
170500 2933N 08924W 4433 06831 0382 -102 //// 264006 007 /// /// 05
170530 2931N 08924W 4362 06957 0390 -111 //// 252006 007 /// /// 05
170600 2929N 08924W 4298 07071 0398 -117 //// 270006 006 /// /// 05
170630 2927N 08925W 4240 07173 0404 -122 //// 251006 007 /// /// 05
170700 2925N 08925W 4173 07297 0413 -129 //// 256007 008 /// /// 05
170730 2923N 08925W 4121 07393 0420 -135 //// 259007 007 /// /// 05
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#1859 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:47 pm

Breaking News: Near 100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM
COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH OF CANCUN MEXICO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA...AND IF IT CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A
CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON.
INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT..OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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#1860 Postby Dave » Wed Jul 27, 2011 12:48 pm

962
URNT15 KNHC 271745
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 03 20110727
170800 2921N 08925W 4079 07471 0425 -140 //// 252006 006 /// /// 05
170830 2919N 08925W 4032 07557 0430 -143 //// 248007 008 /// /// 05
170900 2917N 08925W 3976 07666 0439 -151 //// 260004 005 /// /// 05
170930 2915N 08926W 3935 07745 0446 -155 //// 279002 003 /// /// 05
171000 2913N 08926W 3920 07772 0446 -160 //// 304002 002 /// /// 05
171030 2911N 08926W 3925 07761 0444 -160 //// 264005 006 /// /// 05
171100 2909N 08926W 3923 07762 0443 -160 //// 261006 007 /// /// 05
171130 2906N 08926W 3925 07757 0441 -160 //// 241007 009 /// /// 05
171200 2904N 08927W 3925 07757 0440 -158 //// 238006 008 /// /// 05
171230 2901N 08927W 3923 07758 0439 -157 //// 240009 010 /// /// 05
171300 2859N 08927W 3925 07756 0438 -158 //// 213006 008 /// /// 05
171330 2856N 08927W 3926 07755 0438 -158 //// 230006 009 /// /// 05
171400 2854N 08928W 3925 07756 0438 -156 //// 245013 014 /// /// 05
171430 2851N 08928W 3925 07756 0439 -160 //// 219011 012 /// /// 05
171500 2848N 08928W 3926 07753 0438 -165 //// 211013 014 /// /// 05
171530 2846N 08928W 3927 07752 0439 -163 //// 211012 013 /// /// 05
171600 2843N 08929W 3926 07753 0438 -161 //// 213010 011 /// /// 05
171630 2841N 08929W 3926 07755 0438 -161 //// 215010 012 /// /// 05
171700 2838N 08929W 3926 07753 0438 -158 //// 216012 013 /// /// 05
171730 2835N 08929W 3923 07758 0438 -156 //// 202011 012 /// /// 05
$$
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