ATL: IRENE - Models

[Caribwxgirl]

I am getting a little antsy because on the current official track we here are gonna be in for some serious rains with risk of flooding and mudslides if it continues to be as large whether or not it intensifies. I am watching all future models really closely on this one.

[Recurve]

Since the forecast track has two land crossings, we might want to take models with some extra skepticism. There may be center relocations and other effects of land interaction that the models aren't as skillful at predicting.

I doubt we'll know whether Irene is going to make in into the Gulf or be a storm still until Tuesday or Wednesday. Almost until the center emerges off Cuba, if it does follow that track, there's more than the usual uncertainty, IMHO. Days of speculation to come. Yeah, Texas looks unlikely is about as far as any amateur can go.

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[artist]

I am getting a little antsy because on the current official track we here are gonna be in for some serious rains with risk of flooding and mudslides if it continues to be as large whether or not it intensifies. I am watching all future models really closely on this one.

yeah, the watching and waiting is enough to drive ayou mad! Hopefully you all won't get hit too hard.

[ROCK]

I see the GFDL finally joined the group though it is similar to the 12Z CMC and UKMET....those are some big guns there but the EURO is a cannon....hard to go against it unless its run tonight shows something different....which I think it will....

[Caribwxgirl]

I am getting a little antsy because on the current official track we here are gonna be in for some serious rains with risk of flooding and mudslides if it continues to be as large whether or not it intensifies. I am watching all future models really closely on this one.

yeah, the watching and waiting is enough to drive ayou mad! Hopefully you all won't get hit too hard.

Its the watching and waiting that does you in! But you have a longer period to wait so my thoughts are with you as well hopefully it will only come your side as some well needed rain rather than a strong storm.

[indian]

is it possible that irene does not feel the ridge?

[Caribwxgirl]

is it possible that irene does not feel the ridge?

Anything is possible...but one of the pro mets can give you a more scientific response

[jeff]

is it possible that irene does not feel the ridge?

It think you meant trough...and I do think the system will feel the trough, but I am not sold that it will feel it enough to recurve it. Several of the global models suggest ATL sub-tropical ridge starts to build back westward when Irene is around Cuba/Keys area. Additionally it is highly questionable in what shape Irene will be, if it follows the current NHC track over some very high terrain.

[South Texas Storms]

What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?

[jinftl]

Could get as far west as the mountains of hispanola and die out like many storms before her...could get as far west as central cuba and then move north through the bahamas and up the east coast...could get into the gulf and who can say.

Until this gets passed hispanola, anyone from Veracruz to Nova Scotia should keep an eye out...and keep in mind the forecast doesn't go beyond 120 hours and the margin of error beyond that time is hundreds of miles.

What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?

[Blown Away]

What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?

Possible: SE LA to Charleston, IMO
My Prediction: Up FL West Coast towards Panama City, IMO
Continued center relocation N, goes to SFL, IMO

[ROCK]

is it possible that irene does not feel the ridge?

It think you meant trough...and I do think the system will feel the trough, but I am not sold that it will feel it enough to recurve it. Several of the global models suggest ATL sub-tropical ridge starts to build back westward when Irene is around Cuba/Keys area. Additionally it is highly questionable in what shape Irene will be, if it follows the current NHC track over some very high terrain.

it tracks over the spine of the islands, wont be much left until it gets back over water. My main concern would be if it hit the GOM LC and bombs out...SFL not so much if it followed current track. FL Pen and westward would be a major concern...

[jeff]

Could get as far west as the mountains of hispanola and die out like many storms before her...could get as far west as central cuba and then move north through the bahamas and up the east coast...could get into the gulf and who can say.

Until this gets passed hispanola, anyone from Veracruz to Nova Scotia should keep an eye out...and keep in mind the forecast doesn't go beyond 120 hours and the margin of error beyond that time is hundreds of miles.

What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?

I think many are putting a lot of faith in an August trough that is not overly deep and lifting out (filling). Time and time again models are too weak with the ridge and too strong with the trough which we have seen over and over again with the right bias in the guidance this year and previous years. Overall NHC has no reason to deviate from the guidance clustering which is fairly tight and has been consistent (GFS and ECMWF), but many of your ensembles and other respected global models are well to the west (CMC, UKMET, GFDL). I think some westward shifts will be needed by NHC, but the really big question is if the NE US trough will be enough to grab and recurve, or does it fill and leave the system behind in the E Gulf. The Fay 08 analog may not be that far fetched especially if ridging builds back over the top and the trough lifts out.

[Ivanhater]

Could get as far west as the mountains of hispanola and die out like many storms before her...could get as far west as central cuba and then move north through the bahamas and up the east coast...could get into the gulf and who can say.

Until this gets passed hispanola, anyone from Veracruz to Nova Scotia should keep an eye out...and keep in mind the forecast doesn't go beyond 120 hours and the margin of error beyond that time is hundreds of miles.

What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?

I think many are putting a lot of faith in an August trough that is not overly deep and lifting out (filling). Time and time again models are too weak with the ridge and too strong with the trough which we have seen over and over again with the right bias in the guidance this year and previous years. Overall NHC has no reason to deviate from the guidance clustering which is fairly tight and has been consistent (GFS and ECMWF), but many of your ensembles and other respected global models are well to the west (CMC, UKMET, GFDL). I think some westward shifts will be needed by NHC, but the really big question is if the NE US trough will be enough to grab and recurve, or does it fill and leave the system behind in the E Gulf. The Fay 08 analog may not be that far fetched especially if ridging builds back over the top and the trough lifts out.

Thanks for the analysis Jeff

[psyclone]

Could get as far west as the mountains of hispanola and die out like many storms before her...could get as far west as central cuba and then move north through the bahamas and up the east coast...could get into the gulf and who can say.

Until this gets passed hispanola, anyone from Veracruz to Nova Scotia should keep an eye out...and keep in mind the forecast doesn't go beyond 120 hours and the margin of error beyond that time is hundreds of miles.

What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?

I think many are putting a lot of faith in an August trough that is not overly deep and lifting out (filling). Time and time again models are too weak with the ridge and too strong with the trough which we have seen over and over again with the right bias in the guidance this year and previous years. Overall NHC has no reason to deviate from the guidance clustering which is fairly tight and has been consistent (GFS and ECMWF), but many of your ensembles and other respected global models are well to the west (CMC, UKMET, GFDL). I think some westward shifts will be needed by NHC, but the really big question is if the NE US trough will be enough to grab and recurve, or does it fill and leave the system behind in the E Gulf. The Fay 08 analog may not be that far fetched especially if ridging builds back over the top and the trough lifts out.

nice to have some thoughts from the blue tags. and you certainly bring up a valid point. late august is typically a western/central gulf time of year.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks Jeff. I appreciate your analysis.

[Meteorcane]

Could this affect the Miami area?

[artist]

Could this affect the Miami area?

it is a wait and see situation right now, but Miami is within the 5 day cone as of now.

[seussianagenda]

Wow, Looks like an inland hit for Norfolk VB area. Very close to an isabel inland track, just it coming ashore in fl as opposed to nc/sc. Any change of this maintaining TS force 24 hrs inland?

[Kory]

Wow, Looks like an inland hit for Norfolk VB area. Very close to an isabel inland track, just it coming ashore in fl as opposed to nc/sc. Any change of this maintaining TS force 24 hrs inland?

Nothing currently indicates a Isabel track.