ATL: IRENE - Models

[tolakram]

Let's keep in mind this is the model thread, not the discussion thread.

[mf_dolphin]

Let's keep general track questions in the discussion thread. This thread should be about the specific model runs. Thanks.

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out the 00Z NAM:

[ROCK]

the 18Z NOGAPS takes Irene up the spine of FL as well....total disregard of the ridge....but its the NOGAPS...

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking forward to seeing if GFS shifts the track west on tonight's run.... What time does GFS run again?

[BigB0882]

Is NAM staying south of DR/Haiti?

[Kory]

HOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE
UKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING
IRENE MUCH. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE
LATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST
IN THAT DIRECTION. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS
A GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK
FORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.

[JTD]

Looking forward to seeing if GFS shifts the track west on tonight's run.... What time does GFS run again?

For the GFS, 11:30-midnight ET, 11:30 a.m.-noon ET, 5:30 P.M-6:30 P.M. ET and 5:30 A.M-6:30 A.M. ET roughly. 4 times daily. Euro twice daily at 2-3 p.m. ET and 2-3 a.m. ET.

[SouthDadeFish]

Look at the huge weakness the NAM shows:



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M Loop

[CYCLONE MIKE]

jinftl wrote:
Could get as far west as the mountains of hispanola and die out like many storms before her...could get as far west as central cuba and then move north through the bahamas and up the east coast...could get into the gulf and who can say.

Until this gets passed hispanola, anyone from Veracruz to Nova Scotia should keep an eye out...and keep in mind the forecast doesn't go beyond 120 hours and the margin of error beyond that time is hundreds of miles.


South Texas Storms wrote:
What's the farthest west you guys think this could get?


I think many are putting a lot of faith in an August trough that is not overly deep and lifting out (filling). Time and time again models are too weak with the ridge and too strong with the trough which we have seen over and over again with the right bias in the guidance this year and previous years. Overall NHC has no reason to deviate from the guidance clustering which is fairly tight and has been consistent (GFS and ECMWF), but many of your ensembles and other respected global models are well to the west (CMC, UKMET, GFDL). I think some westward shifts will be needed by NHC, but the really big question is if the NE US trough will be enough to grab and recurve, or does it fill and leave the system behind in the E Gulf. The Fay 08 analog may not be that far fetched especially if ridging builds back over the top and the trough lifts out.



Sums it up perfectly. Nice explanation Jeff. IMO leaning to the trough being weak, flat and lifting out pretty quick leaving the ridge behind to build in and trap Irene in the gulf.

[Kory]

Look at the huge weakness the NAM shows:



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M Loop

As I emphasized this morning, if a huge weakness like that were to occur, then it could curve east of Florida. I think the weakness is a bit overdone in my opinion.

[Blown Away]

Local met just showed a spaghetti plot of 25+ model tracks, very conclusive up center/W coast of Florida, then NE near Big Bend area, very few W of there.

[SeminoleWind]

is it a possibility that Irene could landfall in Florida twice, say southwest Florida then NW to middle panhandle area?

[Ixolib]

Local met just showed a spaghetti plot of 25+ model tracks, very conclusive up center/W coast of Florida, then NE near Big Bend area, very few W of there.

Gotta keep in mind that the models didn't have the benefit of recon before this afternoon/evening. Those data added in may influence future runs...

[deltadog03]

That "weakness" is still WELL north of her.....She is NOT feeling it at that point.

[rockyman]

GFS is running:

[Ivanhater]

Local met just showed a spaghetti plot of 25+ model tracks, very conclusive up center/W coast of Florida, then NE near Big Bend area, very few W of there.

I guess if they didn't include the Canadian UKMET and GFDL it would show that

[Blown Away]

Local met just showed a spaghetti plot of 25+ model tracks, very conclusive up center/W coast of Florida, then NE near Big Bend area, very few W of there.

I guess if they didn't include the Canadian UKMET and GFDL it would show that

Those fell in "very few W of there " category, the were not labeled but I recognized them on their plot.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12 Hr

[DESTRUCTION5]

18 Hr Stronger