ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Wx_Warrior]

From my understanding, EURO doesn't do well with weaker systems.

[crazy4disney]

Just curious... If the high pressure ridge is forecast to move off more to the east, what would steer the system into Mexico or deep south texas?

Always trying to learn here.

-gina-

[KWT]

HWRF looks pretty reasonable to me in terms of strength and track, though I suspect it'll end up a smidge south of that as the GFS based models tend to go too far east with these systems.

Equally the ECM is probably too far south...

[KWT]

HWRF has a pretty good grip IMO of the track and strength of the system, with a 55-60kts system.

Just waiting now for good ole recon!

[Portastorm]

Just curious... If the high pressure ridge is forecast to move off more to the east, what would steer the system into Mexico or deep south texas?

Always trying to learn here.

-gina-

A high pressure ridge which does not move to the east as much as forecast, essentially.

[Dave]

509
URNT15 KNHC 271838
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 11 20110727
182800 2314N 08849W 9780 00294 0114 +250 +152 050008 008 014 001 00
182830 2313N 08847W 9781 00294 0115 +250 +152 050008 009 015 000 00
182900 2312N 08846W 9778 00298 0115 +250 +153 049008 009 014 000 00
182930 2311N 08844W 9778 00296 0115 +250 +153 044008 008 013 000 00
183000 2310N 08843W 9782 00295 0116 +250 +154 049008 009 015 000 00
183030 2309N 08841W 9778 00296 0114 +250 +155 057009 009 016 000 00
183100 2308N 08840W 9780 00294 0113 +250 +155 055009 010 014 000 03
183130 2307N 08838W 9780 00293 0112 +250 +156 049009 009 016 000 00
183200 2306N 08837W 9778 00293 0111 +250 +157 045009 009 013 000 00
183230 2305N 08835W 9779 00293 0112 +250 +158 046009 010 015 000 00
183300 2304N 08834W 9780 00293 0111 +250 +158 039009 009 013 000 00
183330 2303N 08832W 9780 00293 0112 +250 +159 033009 010 013 000 00
183400 2302N 08831W 9777 00295 0111 +250 +159 029009 009 012 000 00
183430 2301N 08829W 9780 00292 0111 +248 +160 033009 010 014 000 00
183500 2300N 08827W 9782 00292 0112 +248 +160 034009 010 015 000 00
183530 2259N 08826W 9780 00293 0112 +246 +161 037009 010 013 000 00
183600 2258N 08824W 9782 00290 0111 +246 +161 035010 010 013 000 00
183630 2257N 08823W 9780 00292 0110 +246 +161 039009 010 012 000 00
183700 2256N 08821W 9765 00306 0111 +246 +161 039010 010 013 000 00
183730 2255N 08820W 9781 00290 0111 +247 +161 034010 010 010 000 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[gboudx]

Update from jeff.

Tropical cyclone developing in the SE Gulf of Mexico a threat to the Texas coast.

Advisories will likely be started at 400pm on either tropical depression or tropical storm Don. Visible satellite images shows a well defined low level cloud swirl on the northern edge of deep convection just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and the system is likely already a tropical cyclone. The aircraft mission was delayed this morning, but the plane is now en-route and depending on what it finds the system may be upgraded directly to a tropical storm.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.

Will get detailed TX impacts out by 600pm this evening after a suite of conference calls and the NHC package around 400pm. Main threat right now appears to be rainfall and strong winds with storm surge a distance 3rd due to the small size of the system. Will address all impacts later this afternoon.

Residents along the Texas coast should review their hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans on Thursday.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, that is roughly the Matagorda area which many are already talking about as a likely landfall spot.

Which makes Air Force Met's prediction right in line with that ( based on what we know..until RECON gets in there)...

As a guess...60 miles either side of Matagorda. Winds 80 MPH...+/- 15 MPH...sometime Friday evening.

Untill we get an LLC...that's just a guess based on the flow of the models and what I think will be good conditions for strengthening during the last 24 hours before landfall.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

With this sort of system it'll probably just take just one notable west wind to get upgraded and probably only one believable 35kt wind estimate to get an upgrade given it could well be close to hurricane status and possible landfall at that strength in just 48-60hrs time...

[nicole]

Update from jeff.

Tropical cyclone developing in the SE Gulf of Mexico a threat to the Texas coast.

Advisories will likely be started at 400pm on either tropical depression or tropical storm Don. Visible satellite images shows a well defined low level cloud swirl on the northern edge of deep convection just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and the system is likely already a tropical cyclone. The aircraft mission was delayed this morning, but the plane is now en-route and depending on what it finds the system may be upgraded directly to a tropical storm.

Since we are already close to 60 hours out from landfall, tropical storm or hurricane watches may be issued for the TX coast with either the 400pm or 1000pm NHC advisory package assuming the plane finds a closed low level circulation. Onset of tropical storm force winds along the TX coast would be sometime in the late afternoon or early evening hours on Friday with increasing rainbands during the day on Friday spreading inland. Still a bit early to try and nail down the greatest area for impact, but the region between roughly Galveston Island to Corpus Christi appears in the greatest threat zone.

Will get detailed TX impacts out by 600pm this evening after a suite of conference calls and the NHC package around 400pm. Main threat right now appears to be rainfall and strong winds with storm surge a distance 3rd due to the small size of the system. Will address all impacts later this afternoon.

Residents along the Texas coast should review their hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to enact these plans on Thursday.

Looks like the next few days are going to be REALLY interesting!!

[Nimbus]

I'm curious what recon will find. You never know this thing could turn out to be one of those elongated two pole systems that pump in plenty of moisture but never quite make hurricane strength.

[EasyTiger]

Update from jeff.

My apologies as this is my first ever post, but who is Jeff?

[Dave]

021
URNT15 KNHC 271848
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 12 20110727
183800 2254N 08818W 9781 00290 0109 +245 +162 030010 010 010 000 00
183830 2253N 08817W 9781 00288 0108 +245 +163 023010 011 011 000 00
183900 2252N 08815W 9780 00290 0109 +245 +163 025010 010 011 001 00
183930 2251N 08814W 9787 00282 0106 +247 +164 028010 010 011 000 00
184000 2249N 08812W 9776 00293 0108 +245 +164 030010 011 009 000 00
184030 2248N 08810W 9776 00293 0109 +245 +165 031011 011 014 000 00
184100 2247N 08809W 9783 00287 0109 +244 +166 030011 012 019 000 03
184130 2246N 08807W 9781 00289 0109 +245 +166 040010 011 016 000 00
184200 2245N 08806W 9768 00300 0108 +245 +166 048010 010 013 000 00
184230 2244N 08804W 9777 00292 0107 +246 +166 056009 010 012 000 00
184300 2243N 08803W 9779 00289 0107 +249 +166 081008 008 009 001 00
184330 2242N 08801W 9770 00298 0107 +244 +166 078009 009 011 001 03
184400 2241N 08759W 9774 00294 0107 +242 +166 075009 010 012 001 00
184430 2240N 08758W 9774 00294 0106 +242 +166 072009 010 010 002 00
184500 2239N 08756W 9772 00295 0106 +242 +166 069009 010 006 001 00
184530 2238N 08755W 9779 00288 0105 +242 +166 061010 010 008 000 00
184600 2237N 08753W 9769 00296 0104 +240 +166 059010 010 007 001 00
184630 2236N 08752W 9774 00293 0105 +240 +166 054009 009 008 001 00
184700 2235N 08750W 9774 00292 0105 +240 +165 041007 008 007 002 00
184730 2234N 08749W 9774 00292 0105 +240 +165 043007 007 006 002 03
$$
;

[Stormcenter]

I believe it would steer it further poleward.

Just curious... If the high pressure ridge is forecast to move off more to the east, what would steer the system into Mexico or deep south texas?

Always trying to learn here.

-gina-

[plasticup]

My apologies as this is my first ever post, but who is Jeff?

Jeff Masters. He writes a well-regarded weather blog.

Edit: disregard that, I don't know what I am talking about

[EasyTiger]

Update from jeff.

My apologies as this is my first ever post, but who is Jeff?

Edit

Okay. Thank you!

[Portastorm]

My apologies as this is my first ever post, but who is Jeff?

Jeff Masters. He writes a well-regarded weather blog.

Not in this instance ... the blog reference is to Jeff Lindner who is a government-based meteorologist in the Houston area and a well-respected member of this forum.

[HURAKAN]

[TexWx]

Jeff Linder
Houston Metorologist