ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

But seriously Aric in terms of organization.

Agree Cycloneye. At least I think you are referring to the lack of any organization in the west. Can't see any potential for development there (or anything like a merger). I don't think the NHC is considering it either.

I did respond....

[KWT]

Looks like it still recurves on this run but very close to Florida now, wouldn't take much of a westward movement from where the GFS is to be a real threat to Florida.

As it is the Bahamas probably didn't enjoy that run.

[scotto]

168 hours...trough is much flatter than even the 12z run



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That's a little too close to my doorstep for comfort. I'd feel a whole lot better about this if it was mid to late September when I know there is a good chance of a decent strength trough coming down to kick this thing out. Early August is a whole different situation.

With all do respect, I would rather be on your doorstep than the Carolina"s.
SFT

[Bocadude85]

yeah 180 hours no NNE motion... just drifting..

It is moving north to me. But there is nothing to move it into Florida at 180 hours.

But if it happens to be 100 miles further west then it will be over Florida

[Aric Dunn]

Finally a N wind ! the western LLC seems to be getting a little better defined. pressure down 1mb too

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

[Nimbus]

As the diurnal max is starting to approach you can see a little burst of convection near 53 that is slightly displaced north by the shear. Anyone have a shear forecast for the next 48 hours?

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it still recurves on this run but very close to Florida now, wouldn't take much of a westward movement from where the GFS is to be a real threat to Florida.

As it is the Bahamas probably didn't enjoy that run.

yeah if that WNW turn the GFS shows continued for another 6 to 12 hours it would be on the coast..

[KWT]

Really good points. I guess my biggest problem with the whole thing is that merges are very rare for two systems that are this distinct. 99% of the time one dies out or is absorbed into the other rather than a "merge." Having said that, your point about the surface west winds is important and I admit I forgot about that. Still, the western one could just as easily start dying down as the eastern one works down to the surface. That's why I said I'm really hoping that RECON is getting all of the data. This could be a huge advancement for our understanding of the physics.

Its a really complex issue, but I think Aric is along the right lines when it comes to this system, and when it comes to formative stages of a system, I really pay attention to his thoughts, probably the best non-pro metin the formative stages.

As Aric said it'll be more of a stacking, thats why i said earlier to expect to behave in a similar way to a sheared system and expect the convection and MLC to rapidly transfer westwards whilst the LLC sorta gets dragged NNE from the western area and they'll merge something like that.

Its something you sometimes see in the W.Caribbean when you have a monsoonal gyre there, but its pretty uncommon in the Atlantic, at least to this extreme.

Ps, the fact the NHC mentioned it in thier update suggest they at least know its there.

[stormreader]

Finally a N wind ! the western LLC seems to be getting a little better defined. pressure down 1mb too

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html

Well. I really hope your right Aric. In that it would be something of a surprise. If you watch these systems long enough, it seems like eventually you see just about everything. In general I think when systems become elongated and MLC and LLC get displaced in a fast moving current of air, you tend to look for the trailing area (which I think is what models in general have their original fix on) and is what I think the NHC is doing. Also, I really think organization is much better in the east than the west. But I will watch some overnight. My own hunch is that later tonight we'll begin to see a small but intense bursting area of convection right at the point of the E "center".

[Ivanhater]

Does not get closer than that folks without a direct hit. Trough is flatter again this run...the trend is not good so far.

Also, a reminder when quoting someone with an image, remember to take out the IMG tags. Thanks

[gatorcane]

Pretty nice-looking anticyclone (low shear environment) for it to work with. Here we are with the 200mb winds at 162 hours as shown by 18z GFS:

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like it's becoming one broad identity again. I'm guessing it will take 8-12 hours for the MLC to become stacked with LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

[stormreader]

As the diurnal max is starting to approach you can see a little burst of convection near 53 that is slightly displaced north by the shear. Anyone have a shear forecast for the next 48 hours?

And I think that is the area where I will be looking at tonight (in the east).

[hurricanefloyd5]

[quote="gatorcane"]Pretty nice-looking anticyclone (low shear environment) for it to work with. Here we are with the 200mb winds at 162 hours as shown by 18z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif[/img]


have the model loop please?

Edited by Ivanhater to remove IMG tags

[KWT]

Does not get closer than that folks without a direct hit. Trough is flatter again this run...the trend is not good so far.

I'm reminded of last year when Earl kept trending westwards...the worrying thing is this is starting from a more westerly base.

[Aric Dunn]

the other thing to remember is if we do get a large intense hurricane they tend to build up the ridges somewhat we saw that with EARL and many many other..so an longer duration wnw track at anytime could cause florida to be in the cross hairs

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis by TAFB.



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[SFLcane]

Stacy is on duty and passed along that they had SatCom issues and lost contact with the aircraft.

[pgoss11]

the other thing to remember is if we do get a large intense hurricane they tend to build up the ridges somewhat we saw that with EARL and many many other..so an longer duration wnw track at anytime could cause florida to be in the cross hairs

Not just Florida.. the whole SE coast could be affected

[KWT]

Looks like it's becoming one broad identity again. I'm guessing it will take 8-12 hours for the MLC to become stacked with LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html

Yeah sure does look that way, system should pluse up alot, esp in the central/eastern portion of the system as convergence increases and the western-most convection decays, whilst the western circulation will be where the convective pluse will likely continue.

also expect the MLC to pluse up again soon...may already be seeing signs of increased instablity.