ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

This kind

[Kennethb]

Latest Forecast for us in Baton Rouge and not even considering the tornado threat:

LAZ046>048-031230-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAQUEMINE...WHITE CASTLE...
PORT ALLEN...ADDIS...BRUSLY...BATON ROUGE
442 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2011

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
EAST WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 50 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH
INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. EAST WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 75 MPH. CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. LOWS IN THE
MID 70S. NORTH WINDS 35 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.LABOR DAY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CLOUDY WITH
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
30 PERCENT.

[MGC]

The weather here on the Mississippi Coast has gotten a bit more windy today than yesterday. Have had a couple of bands of heavy rain pass through today. The Mississippi Sound is covered with white caps, tides looked about normal. Winds are coming in from the SE. Air has a definite tropical feel to it. The track as of 4pm has Lee passing just to my north Monday evening. I want to thank Texas for the dry air that is currenly hindering Lee's intensification. Lee should slowly intensify but fall short of becoming a hurricane. Inland flooding is going to be Lee's most significant threat. Please don't drive through flood waters. We have just witnessed the needless loss of life in Irene with people driving around and having a tree fall on them or getting swept away in flood waters. It is going to be a long wet weekend......MGC

[Tireman4]

I want to thank Texas for the dry air that is currenly hindering Lee's intensification.

You are quite welcome. We do what we can.

[BigB0882]

48 hours of gusts to tropical storm force. Hopefully those gusts are few and far between instead of constantly coming. Trees would definitely come down after dealing with that for 2 days. Supposed to go watch the game tomorrow night at the Varsity for a friends bday but not sure if it is smart to get out. Guess we will wait and see how it looks tomorrow evening.

[somethingfunny]

I want to thank Texas for the dry air that is currenly hindering Lee's intensification.......MGC

Anytime! We've got our fans blowing as hard as they can, trying to destroy the storm altogether in a fit of jealous rage.

[underthwx]

wish yall a safe labor day mgc...

[gboudx]

Is this the CoC at about 28.5N/92.2W? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like something trying to wrap-up right there. At the 4pm advisory, the NHC put it at:

Location: 27.5°N 91.5°W

I can't really tell anymore with all the shearing.

[Turtle]

Sorry for Double Post, but I have not given up hope for rain in Texas yet.

18 GFS:



Old 12 GFS:



Notice how SW LA and and Eastern TX fills up. 2.5"+ TX/LA border up to the I-20 corridor.

[somethingfunny]

Look at all that dry air! You know, the Sabine River is just a manmade boundary, but the moisture envelope seems to recognize it as a line in the sand to just never cross.

I'm tempted to say there's no way Lee strengthens much beyond a lopsided 45mph storm during its' lifetime given the current satellite appearance, but it already looks much better than it did 24 hours ago, so things can certainly change.

Good luck to all our friends in Louisiana and eastward! Stay safe and dry!

[southerngale]

The 18z doubles my rain... probably because it shifted a little west when comparing the 54h on the 12z and the 48h on the 18z... landfall in SW LA. Still on the dry side, but 2.5 inches would be better than 1.25 inches. Of course, I take it all with a grain of salt and just keep on praying for rain!

Btw, it's quite breezy here.

[tailgater]

What's that on the radar moving ssw toward Houston. more teasing.

[Kennethb]

If our forecast for Baton Rouge would come to fruition, that would be 2-3 days of sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts to 60 - 75. Not sure that will happen, but if it does, there will be considerable limbs and some trees down.

48 hours of gusts to tropical storm force. Hopefully those gusts are few and far between instead of constantly coming. Trees would definitely come down after dealing with that for 2 days. Supposed to go watch the game tomorrow night at the Varsity for a friends bday but not sure if it is smart to get out. Guess we will wait and see how it looks tomorrow evening.

[HurricaneRobert]

I hope this thing rotates about 130 degrees counterclockwise.

[PTrackerLA]

Convection growing not far NE of the center. Look for it to consolidate more overnight. So far today only enough rain to wet the ground in Lafayette.

[BigB0882]

I noticed convection firing to the NE. Might be a sign of some more organization but we will have to see if it can hold it or not, so far it has not been able to hold any convection for long.

[southerngale]

The dry air is really punching into this on the latest Sat. loop, it might struggle to deepen much more.

thats right Lee eat some dry air..How does that taste?...you dont want none of this.....yes I am losing it... I am talking to a TS.

There's a lot of private messages, chats, and texting going on between Texans on here. Trust me when I say you are not the only one losing it!!

[Nikki]

Just got in from work and my a/s is out. Please tell me the storm will bring us rain!! Any chance at all?

I am not a met, but I don't think it is looking good at all for us! I am so sorry your a/c is out and over the holiday weekend to book! I looked at the chances at it is at between 30-50% chance on any given day and our heat index is supposed to be high tomorrow, around 105, I sure hope you can get some relief somehow! I wish I could help you out!

[KWT]

Convection growing not far NE of the center. Look for it to consolidate more overnight. So far today only enough rain to wet the ground in Lafayette.

Heavier rain looks a little to the east of you, I dare say rain will increase as the system still pulls closer tothe shore but the heaviest stuff is gonna be a little to the east, as I'm sure you know.

[ktulu909]

STATUS REPORT FROM GRETNA,LA

Its rainy and breezy.The same as it has been all day.Im ready to go to sleep from it.

Thank you.