ATL: ARLENE - Remnants

[Dean4Storms]

If that is the suspected Low it won't have much room to develop much.

[GCANE]

Winds out of north and picking up on La Mancha Beach north of Veracruz.

[GCANE]

Looks like heavy convection firing up over Yucatan from afternoon land heating is turning the UL winds around in the opposite direction.

An anti-cyclone may be in the near future and could see a big drop in shear.


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/custom/index.htm?satellite=GOES-E+CONUS&type=Animation&numframes=15&width=1000&height=800&info=vis&zoom=2&palette=ir.pal&quality=100&map=standard&mapcolor=black&lat=20&lon=-90

[ronjon]

If that is the suspected Low it won't have much room to develop much.

If it drifts NW it will have plenty of room.

[alan1961]

:uarrow:
Just to the west of your L there is an eddy that can be seen easily on the VIS loop

Yeah, I noticed that but seems to be rotating soutward.

As you(I think it was you) said it's probably rotating around the wave axis. There is just not much to this invest yet.

Thats about where the eddy seems to be rotating.

[wxman57]

Nothing at the surface yet according to obs. Just a trof/wave axis across the eastern BoC/western Yucatan. Those 10-15 kt northerly winds inland across the southern BoC could be the result of the sea breeze.

[cycloneye]

This is the 18z TAFB Surface Analysis and see the low placement in the BOC.

[GCANE]

West winds are being reported in Minatitlan, Mexico at the southern end of the BOC.


http://www.hurricanecity.com/mexicoweather.htm

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/index.p ... &icao=MMMT

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

Long visible loop.

Most convection is still over land. If you speed the loop up you can see the near rotation and where west winds might be reported, but this thing has a long long way to go IMO.

[Nimbus]

Blob watching tonight and some deep convection further north up near 23.5N 91.4 west. Probably just sheared but something might get down to the surface if it persists.

[Rgv20]

Imagine if the clipper model is right. The drought buster all the way! But seriously,I dont know why that model has that track with the ridge parked over Texas/Louisiana.

CLIPER5 is nothing more than a climatology model.

Here is some info on it.

Climatology and Persistence Model (CLIPER5)

CLIPER5 is a statistical track model originally developed in 1972 and extended to provide forecasts out to 120 h (5 days) in 1998. As the name implies, the CLIPER5 model is based on climatology and persistence. It employs a multiple regression technique that estimates the relationships between several parameters of the active TC to a historic record of TC behavior to predict the track of the active TC. The inputs to the CLIPER5 include the current and past movement of the TC during the previous 12- and 24-hour periods, the direction of its motion, its current latitude and longitude, date, and initial intensity. CLIPER5 is now used primarily as a benchmark for evaluating the forecast skill of other models and the official NHC forecast, rather than as a forecast aid.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

I would highly recommend reading the link above as it explains all the models that NHC uses.

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF Ensembles are a tad further north with the low than the operational run.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. THESE RAINS AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART

[lebron23]

If trends continue code red by 2am or 8am

[HURAKAN]

If trends continue code red by 2am or 8am

Not likely unless a well-defined LLC develops. Looking at the visible loops, it's a large gyre

[Bobo2000]

Trying to enter the BOC. IF it reaches it, it'll organize. (Not saying it will become a TD)

[NDG]

I agree with raising chances up to 50%, low pressure center starting to come together a little better just NE of Ciudad del Carmen, where pressure is now down to 1005mb.

[Bobo2000]

I dont understand why they dont have satellite on NHC on this system. Probably down.

[MGC]

50%????

Just don't see it....too much shear and after staring at a visable loop could not see a circulation. Bet those north winds are seabreezed induced like 57 said.......MGC

[HURAKAN]

I agree with raising chances up to 50%, low pressure center starting to come together a little better just NE of Ciudad del Carmen, where pressure is now down to 1005mb.

The barometric pressure at Ciudad del Carmen has been oscillating between 1005 and 1009 mb for the past 2 days.

link: http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... atename=NA