ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Florida1118]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

The language is very strong.

[Florida1118]

:uarrow: The language is very strong.

Ya you can tell they are pretty certain this will develop...and soon it appears...I'd start the look out in the Islands.

[ROCK]

finally....something worth tracking....

I see it blew up a pretty good tower around the COC tonight. Have to agree with NDG on this one...going to be big and bad like the Emily before it.....

[Weatherfreak000]

Strikingly bullish 2nd TWO as well.

[Florida1118]

Thats a pretty active map for July too.

[ROCK]

:uarrow: The language is very strong.

you islanders keep a close watch on this one. I dont think a Bears Watching will do it either....TD by Sunday? I think so...

[theweatherwatch]

If SHIPS is right it will be Emily with in 36 hours.

[ROCK]

Strikingly bullish 2nd TWO as well.

I am surprised at that given the recent events with Don. Whereas they were conservative enough to deactivate Don for a time with 91L they are not....

[TwisterFanatic]

NHC going bullish early, I like it!


Anyway, this could be a big one, and It doesn't look like a re-curve is likely at the point in time.

[theweatherwatch]

NHC going bullish early, I like it!


Anyway, this could be a big one, and It doesn't look like a re-curve is likely at the point in time.

It's just 1 model but according to the GFS it will re-curve but not before the Islands.

[ROCK]

0z NOGAPS

does the same

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[KWT]

Models suggest this one will probably be a Caribbean threat, its very low in lattitude though and I'm a little wary of the models being too far north initially...

I think it needs vewry close watching, the models are becoming increasingly bullish on something forming...

00z ECM actualluy develops the area just behind from the looks of things which splits off...think thats a bit of a wierd idea myself...but I have seen it before.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z NOGAPS

does the same

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Yes, but it takes on an odd northward motion initially, which bends back to west. Looking at visible imagery right now, i dont see anything more than a movement to the west, maybe a little north of west. This thing is organizing at a pretty good pace tonight and if that trend continues it could develop and begin to take a more northerly path, but I dont agree with the nogaps' initial motion. Like in all other cases, the models will not tell a completely accurate story until a center of circulation is established.

[SouthDadeFish]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912011 07/29/11 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 67 80 88 98 101 105 107
V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 44 55 67 80 88 98 101 105 107
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 35 40 50 62 78 97 111 117 116 112
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 6 1 3 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -1 3 3 0 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 63 70 67 65 130 55 78 63 321 303 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9
POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 135 135 141 145 147 148 149 151 150
ADJ. POT. INT. 145 141 140 138 136 137 143 147 148 148 148 148 146
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 71 69 68 66 63 64 60 59 65 N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 13 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 64 56 44 39 20 4 11 23 32 41 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 48 58 72 69 50 56 71 54 45 64 N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV -3 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 1192 1143 1070 1015 970 905 839 814 688 466 372 476 246
LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.6 10.0 11.1 12.1 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.0 16.1
LONG(DEG W) 41.0 42.0 42.9 43.9 44.8 47.1 49.8 52.6 55.2 57.9 60.4 62.7 64.7
STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 10 10 11 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 11
HEAT CONTENT 43 41 42 41 40 39 53 69 71 80 90 80 77

Holy Moly, LGE brings it to cat 4 intensity... Next to nothing shear forecast as an anticylclone builds overhead. This thing could go bananas.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's rare when you see a TWO with absolutely nothing negative, no hindering aspects. This literally is the "all systems go" of TWOs.

[South Texas Storms]

Thia is starting to remind me of Hurricane Emily in 2005. She went bonkers.

[KWT]

It could well become the first hurricane this season, in fact I see no reason why it won't other then too sluggish development and the possibility of copeting areas of energy...thats what keeps the ECM from doing anything too much with it...

I'm not sure intial development will be rapid but it sure looks like the models are seeing a fairly decent set-up, the fact both GFDL/HWRF are clocking it on Don's runs is a sure sign the models are agressive.

[KWT]

Haha looks like an Emily Re-duex to me, at least at this early point in its life, stunning!

I think given the size of the rotation and everything it may take 24-36hrs for it to get going much, and indeed can't rule out seperate areas competing in this broad area, thats what the 00z ECM shows, which would also hinder development...

But other then that, like everyone says, conditions are real condusive...

[TwisterFanatic]