WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[dexterlabio]

Latest euro run shows twin typhoons heading towards Southern Japan. As it appears, this run suggests a classic Fujiwara effect on those two.

[dexterlabio]

[dexterlabio]

[StormingB81]

Looks like we will be doing close watching this week! long ways away though abd well they havent developed yet but I am sure they will

[Typhoon Hunter]

96W really cranking now per CWB satellite - http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/observe/satellite/Sat_H_EA.htm?type=RGB

Seems like quite a tight LLC in there on the eastern periphery of the deep convection. Maybe a bit of shear impacting it right now. I expect a TCFA very soon.

Next name on the list Nanmadol!

[dexterlabio]

Yeah looking decent enough for a TCFA. If JMA upgrades this into a weak TD, at least, I guess PAGASA will follow suit by upgrading it into TD "Mina"...

Latest satpic from PAGASA


So here I understand clearly how the latest ecm run suggests things to turn out...

[dexterlabio]

I really think a TCFA will be issued in the next couple of minutes...

Latest from NRL:

96WINVEST.20kts-1007mb
129N-1284E

[StormingB81]

I am awaiting it specially because around this time would be when they update it

[dexterlabio]

Shear becoming low to moderate near the system's location.

[StormingB81]

TCFA Issued:

WTPN21 PGTW 211400
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 128.3E TO 18.7N 129.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 128.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOIUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4N
130.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
DEEPENED. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 211054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL EMERGED, ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. DUE TO THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN
THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 221400Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Just putting it up now...photo isnt up yet

[StormingB81]

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 13N 129E NNW SLOWLY.

[dexterlabio]

Just want to ask, is there any ULL that is pushing this system to the northeast? Interesting to note that this year, most of the potential howlers that formed in the Pacific were fish and headed for Japan instead of PI (except for Nock-ten).

[RobWESTPACWX]

I am not to stoked about this one..

[RobWESTPACWX]

PAGASA putting out a LPA now

At 8:00 a.m. today, the Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 570 km East of Visayas (10.8°N; 131.6°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Both weather systems will bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms in Central and Southern Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. However, widespread rains expected over the Eastern Visayas and Eastern Mindanao which may trigger flashfloods and landslides.

The Disaster Coordinating Councils are advised to monitor the development of this weather disturbance.

The next advisory will be issued at 11 am tomorrow.

[StormingB81]

WOW looking at the new run from CMWF could be in for one if this one comes.

[phwxenthusiast]

still some E to ESE shear of near 20kts....

now upgraded to TD Mina by PAGASA, btw...

[StormingB81]

Wow..I am suprised to see all agencies bring this really close to Okinawa..ussually you have one or 2 tht have different oaths.I mean they are all different but they all bring it really close now I know that we are talking about 6-7 days away and I am sure the track will vary in some way just its odd to se them almost all near the same way

[phwxenthusiast]

Wow..I am suprised to see all agencies bring this really close to Okinawa..ussually you have one or 2 tht have different oaths.I mean they are all different but they all bring it really close now I know that we are talking about 6-7 days away and I am sure the track will vary in some way just its odd to se them almost all near the same way

indeed, models have been very consistent this past two weeks, not only here in WPAC but with TS Irene in the Atlantic as well...

right now, i would put Okinawa's chances of seeing TS winds next weekend at 50%....

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