ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[psyclone]

an observation i've had regarding invests: it's always telling when the model thread (the fantasy world) is far more lengthy than the regular (ie real world) thread. that's an indicator not much is happening in the real world. now i recognize that the system isn't expected to do much near term but the way this year has been so far, i want some evidence this system is gonna do work. until we have a legit system to track these model runs, entertaining as they may be, are useless. i guess i am desperate to see an eye pop out on sat imagery...and i bet i'm not the only one that feels this way. nonetheless, i'm still here, mostly lurking, because i'm a hopeless addict:)

[CourierPR]

an observation i've had regarding invests: it's always telling when the model thread (the fantasy world) is far more lengthy than the regular (ie real world) thread. that's an indicator not much is happening in the real world. now i recognize that the system isn't expected to do much near term but the way this year has been so far, i want some evidence this system is gonna do work. until we have a legit system to track these model runs, entertaining as they may be, are useless. i guess i am desperate to see an eye pop out on sat imagery...and i bet i'm not the only one that feels this way. nonetheless, i'm still here, mostly lurking, because i'm a hopeless addict:)

Well stated post. Until we have a closed center of circulation, within what is now 97L, the twilight zone is where these models are at in the long range.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

yes and no. ignoring the storm itself, the models are giving a good hint at what the developing synoptics might be around the storm in a few days. that helps to guesstimate where the storm could go, even if intensity is still hard to forecast.

[CourierPR]

yes and no. ignoring the storm itself, the models are giving a good hint at what the developing synoptics might be around the storm in a few days. that helps to guesstimate where the storm could go, even if intensity is still hard to forecast.

If the center forms near 16N rather than 14N, that would produce a significant change in the model guidance. This has nothing to do with intensity.

[psyclone]

yes and no. ignoring the storm itself, the models are giving a good hint at what the developing synoptics might be around the storm in a few days. that helps to guesstimate where the storm could go, even if intensity is still hard to forecast.

If the center forms near 16N rather than 14N, that would produce a significant change in the model guidance. This has nothing to do with intensity.

put another way, in the past 24 hours the gfs has ranged from tampa to texas, and that says nothing about intensity estimates. that's why i am impatiently awaiting genuine, deep cyclone development.

[ConvergenceZone]

Convection coming back

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Hurricaneman]

This is starting to convect for 2 reasons, 1 is its starting to draw some moisture from the ULL and reeason number 2 is warmer ocean temps

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Up to 30%

2 AM TWO

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 20 MPH.

[fci]

yes and no. ignoring the storm itself, the models are giving a good hint at what the developing synoptics might be around the storm in a few days. that helps to guesstimate where the storm could go, even if intensity is still hard to forecast.

Models are pretty scary on this one, unlike most of the others we have had this season. And pretty consistent too.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Possible Tropical Cyclone in the next 24 hrs per TAFB

[cycloneye]

Low pressure added at 06z surface analysis.

[Gustywind]

19/0545 UTC 12.9N 45.2W TOO WEAK 97L -- Atlantic

[ROCK]

sure is a broad low.....and moving at 20 mph.....no LLC or close to one I can see....still a few days away so says the models.

[Gustywind]

From Wunderground
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... track.html
Has lost 1 mb...
00 GMT 08/19/11 13.6N 41.4W 25 1008 Invest
06 GMT 08/19/11 13.5N 44.2W 25 1007 Invest

[USTropics]

Just to update what Ivan has already started to include the latest GFS/Euro run:

GFS
06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast
12Z Mon: central LA 8/30
18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8
00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27
06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28
12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28
18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8
00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27
06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26
12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27
18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25
00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27
06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27
12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27
18z Thur: Houston 8/30
00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29
06Z Fri: Florida Panhandle 8/28

Euro
12z Mon: 8/25 Bahamas
00z Tue: 8/26 -Eastern Bahamas
12z Tue: system dies over Hispaniola
00z Wed: 8/28-intense hurricane off of SC/GA border
12z Wed: shredded over Hispaniola and heads into NW Caribbean as a weak low
00z Thur: 8/26-off of East coast of Florida and 8/27 landfall in SC
12z Thur: 8/28: intense hurricane in the Central Gulf after going over Hispaniola
00z Fri: Miami/South Florida landfall 8/27-Skims East Coast-8/29 North Carolina/Outer Banks landfall

[Meso]

Convection continuing to increase a bit and seems to be consolidating a bit more. Looks to be slowly organizing. Dry air ahead of the system has declined a lot, a slight increase in dry air on the NE quad, though it should be able to get away from it without too much trouble over the next day or so. But convection is looking a lot better as each passing hour goes by, finally got some reds popping on the AVN.

My thinking (unofficial, un-endorsed etc) is that it will still be a bit back and forth with convection for the next day or so, but should start becoming more established tomorrow (Saturday). 30% seems a bit low for a two day development chance. I don't expect it to develop today Friday, but later on Saturday into Sunday it seems possible, Sunday being the most likely though.

[Gustywind]

Latest from NRL:
20110819.1015.97LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-135N-442W.

[cycloneye]

From Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 97L Located 1100 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles:
Morning satellite imagery indicated somewhat of an increase in convection with Invest 97L, which is located about 1100 miles to the east of the Lesser Antilles. It appears that this increase in convection is due to that the atmosphere is starting to moisten up around 97L and that it is starting to encounter warmer ocean waters of 29 Degrees Celsius or 84 Degrees Fahrenheit. I fully expect this disturbance to continue organizing, especially once it gets west of 50 and 55 West Longitude. Upper level conditions are favorable and it will be encountering even warmer sea surface temperatures of near 30 Degrees Celsius or 86 Degrees Fahrenheit as it tracks west of 50 and 55 West Longitude.

I do not expect 97L to develop into a tropical depression today, however, it is quite possible that this system will become a tropical depression on Saturday and there is a even higher likelihood of it being upgraded to a tropical depression on Sunday.

The operational model guidance consisting of the GFS, Canadian and European model guidance are all in very good agreement with a track forecast for the next three to four days. It is looking likely that 97L will track into the Caribbean later Sunday after affecting the Lesser Antilles and Barbados with possible tropical storm conditions on Saturday night into Sunday. Once this system gets to a point just south of Hispaniola on Tuesday, the operational guidance diverges greatly with the GFS model forecasting an eventual landfall on the central and eastern US Gulf Coast. The European model forecasts a serious hit along the entire US East Coast from Miami to potentially Philadelphia, New York City and southern New England. The Canadian model is slightly further east than the European model and forecasts a pretty serious hit on the US Southeast coast from eastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states.

The ensemble model guidance of the GFS, European and even the Canadian models are “interesting” as they all pretty much agree with each other. The ensemble guidance is pointing to a scenario that has 97L tracking across the central and northern part of the Caribbean from Monday to Thursday of next week and for this system to track across central or western Cuba around next Friday. Once we get into next weekend, the average of all of the ensemble model guidance members suggests a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an impact into the Florida Panhandle next Sunday. It should be pointed out that the ensemble spread, which basically means a larger area of possibilities, stretch from the upper Texas coast all the way eastward to the North Carolina coast.

It is way too early to make an accurate prediction on where this system may impact the US coastline, however, the overall pattern strongly suggests a very worrisome scenario of an approaching potential hurricane impacting somewhere on the US Gulf coast or the US Southeast coast next weekend. As for the Caribbean, it seems quite possible that a strengthening tropical storm or hurricane will be tracking west-northwestward across the Caribbean next week with potential impacts felt in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and possibly the Yucatan Peninsula.

[Meso]

After reading that piece by Rob, least I know I'm not alone in my thinking indicated above.

And things are only going to be getting better for 97L, though land interaction is likely to be one of the major factors in exactly how strong it will be when it approaches the US (if it does approach the US that is)

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190609
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N45W 15N43W 12N41W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 MPH.