ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

Over 25 inches of rain...2 feet from the 18z GFS!

[bamajammer4eva]

Per Joe Bastardi

BP starting to evacuate non essential personal in nw gulf.. they are now seeing it.

[rockyman]

Very Danny-Esque 1997:

Extreme amounts of rainfall were produced over Alabama. Dauphin Island had the highest amount of rainfall, 37.75 inches (959 mm) reported by the HPC. Dauphin Island Sea Lab recorded 36.71 inches (932 mm) of rain, but not all the rain may have recorded in the rain gauge at this location, so it is possible the rainfall may have been underestimated. Doppler weather radar estimates show that around 43 inches (1,090 mm) of rain fell off the coast of Dauphin Island

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Danny_(1997)

[Jagno]

The ECMWF shows development S of The TX/LA border and then greatly deepens the system all the way down to a strong 968mb hurricane while drifting it W then WSW toward the middle TX coast.

Isn't this suggesting a Cat 3? We're sending it back, no thank you......................we're starting to like this drought anyway. LOL

[micktooth]

[quote="Ivanhater"]Over 25 inches of rain...2 feet from the 18z GFS!

I remember living in NOLA May 8, 1995, training thunderstorms dumped about 18 inches of rain, I had a foot of water in my house!

[HurricaneRobert]

As a huge wave, it may take a while to get together. But I wonder if Katia will start pulling it east.

[hurr123]

Anyone knows what JB is thinking concerning the path and strength of this system???

[Hurricaneman]

another analog hurricane would be Earl 1998 which actually looked subtropical while being the lower end of tropical as a cat2 hurricane

[Ivanhater]

18z Canadian...very strong system into New Orleans

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

voricity is definitely increasing...

[South Texas Storms]

The CMC regional model has been showing that for the past 2 days. It's very different from the CMC operational run.

[HurryKane]

I don't see how New Orleans gets wiped off the map on that run.

GFS wipes New Orleans off the map,

Aswell as Katia being a CONUS system, something else develops behind it.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

A category 1 sitting over gulf waters, stalled out for a week, next to a city built in a giant ditch? Flood much?

Well, that would sure put out the unreachable swamp fire over in New Orleans East!

[Over my head]

Quote--_" HYBRID SUBTROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WITH
BAROCLINIC CHARACTERISTICS"

Huh? Someone please explain in 2nd grade English. Lol!

It means that the developing system may contain some characteristics that are more typical of mid-latitude low pressure systems; that is, it may contain cold and warm fronts and large gradients of temperature in the horizontal (i.e. colder air on one side of the system and warmer air on the other side). A more typical tropical cyclone usually has no fronts associated with it, and has very little, if any temperature gradient from one side to the other.

It's more complicated than that, but that's the basic idea.

Does that make them worse or better or just different characteristics ?

[ROCK]

18z regional CMC seems a little bullish on strength...

[South Texas Storms]

Alright Rock, I'm giving up on this storm if the GFS stays the same at 0z and the 0z Euro shifts east. You agree?

[Ivanhater]

18z HWRF...North central gulf coast



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[South Texas Storms]

Ok first off, the HWRF initializes it too far SE. Second, it would have to move NNW from here until landfall. How will it do that with that big ridge to its north?

[rockyman]

Vorticity increasing and moving NW:

[BigB0882]

I still feel this will shift West, I have hope for you guys in TX. I think it will be an upper TX or LA event but probably not as far as New Orleans, central LA at most. JMO! I have a feeling I will be seeing a LOT of rain in the coming days.

Not an official forecast!

[cycloneye]

60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 1285 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN