ATL: IRENE - Models

[cycloneye]

Landfall in 5 days. This aint fantasy land anymore.

Exactly,those entretaiment lala-land runs are over.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not in a hurry here to die or leave

[Tampa_God]

Completely bogus model run IMO. Seriously doubt that this will go that far east

Still too early to say. Be interesting to see what the ridge in Texas does in the next day or two and I think more of the models will be compact on where Irene will go. I don't hope it goes further west of the track, but I won't rule it out.

[SFLcane]

Concensus cannot be any better than this by the ECM and GFS.

[SouthFLTropics]

The old saying goes "the trend is your friend". With friends like the GFS who needs enemies. The consistency and "the trend" is downright scary for South Florida and especially for emergency planners in South Florida. I would anticipate that some major decisions will have to be made come Monday night or Tuesday morning. Evacuation from the Keys can take quite some time and with an approach from the South like this there is no where to hide. With that being said I do believe that the models are ramping this thing up a bit too much. Time will tell, but the time is slipping out of the hourglass and we are in 4-5 day range now which makes the GFS and the Euro that much more reliable.

SFT

[Aric Dunn]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

[Blown Away]

EPIC rainfall central/north Florida!! Wow

[maxintensity]

And to think the NHC has people in FL expecting a run of the mill tropical storm. They need to seriously reconsider what "conservative" means. Hopefully after tonights runs Stewart or Avila will make a change.

[WeatherEmperor]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

You are correct Aric and I may be guilty of this as well

Oh boy the GFS has been so darn consistent it is really getting scary!

[TwisterFanatic]

Interesting, went completely against what Wxman and the other Pro-Met said earlier this evening.

[JtSmarts]

When does the Euro run again?

[DESTRUCTION5]

GA flooding Imminent

[Ivanhater]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

I doubt it

wxman57 wrote:
Note that it's 1 degree of latitude that = 60 nautical miles. The distance between 1 degree of longitude is greatest at the Equator and decreases poleward to zero at the North Pole. So you cannot use degrees of longitude to estimate speed.

NHC track did shift west, as I expected. I think the consensus models will continue to shift west tonight, leading to a more powerful hurricane when Irene hits Cuba and passes west of the Florida peninsula.

[WeatherEmperor]

When does the Euro run again?

I think in the next 90 minutes or so....

[tolakram]

Well,

on the bright side, IMO, there is no way it gets that strong. Most of the deepening was happening over Cuba, though I'm sure some can happen between Cuba and Florida as well. It will be weakened by crossing Haiti and Cuba, but the model is telling us conditions are favorable for re-strengthening. And of course shear forecasts are almost always wrong. So something to keep a very close eye on, but not sure if it's going to be as strong as the GFS claims it will be.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BigB0882]

GA flooding Imminent

I am not sure if it is a problem on my end but all of the pictures you post are way behind. Is anyone else seeing this? I've also seen many pictures posted over and over but you label them 24, 48, etc but it doesn't change. Do I need to refresh or are you linking to the wrong picture?

[DESTRUCTION5]

162...Buried inland..(last)

[bella_may]

Will be interesting to see if the gfdl stays consistent. When does it run again?

[jdray]

Dear god, that GFS run is epic flooding for North Florida and Georgia on the Dora scale of flooding.....

[psyclone]

wow i was expecting a bit more west based on what folks were saying earlier tonight. very interesting run. will be cool to see what the gfdl does in future runs.

maybe listening to the wrong folks ?

LOL. perhaps so but there were some respected blue taggers in the mix. they're all conspicuously absent now but they may be sleeping like normal people. needless to say... this is getting spicy.