ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

From 28 storms

28 storms
‎#Lee track likely to continue shifting a tad more east. S MS/AL to get nearly as much rain as portions of SE LA #mswx #alwx

And below is the NHC forecast which ASSUMES it landfalls in Louisiana. Further east means more time over water. Wonder if it gets a shot at cane

INIT 02/2100Z 27.5N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 27.9N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 28.5N 91.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 29.7N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 30.1N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1800Z 31.5N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1800Z 33.6N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Huckster]

I am just glad that those winds seem like they are not going to materialize. Such a long duration of those kind of winds and rain would be disastrous. I can't imagine the number of trees that would fall.

[stormy70]

Been raining here off and on all day. Some of the rain is heavy while other bands are not as heavy. I think we have gotten about 1.16 inches today with more rain expected throughout the weekend.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thats what I was worried about as well Huckster. Could have been really bad around here. Probably along the lines of Gustav bad.

Bammajammer, not sure about that. Doesn't seem there will be much left of Lee to move east the way things are looking right now. The heaviset convection is just off LA coast drifting north.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030233
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 24 20110903
022400 2924N 09312W 8429 01536 //// +170 //// 062040 040 035 001 01
022430 2925N 09313W 8430 01533 //// +169 //// 064039 040 035 001 01
022500 2926N 09315W 8429 01535 //// +168 //// 066040 041 034 002 01
022530 2928N 09316W 8429 01536 //// +168 //// 067041 041 034 001 01
022600 2929N 09318W 8430 01533 //// +168 //// 064041 042 029 004 05
022630 2929N 09320W 8431 01535 //// +166 //// 061039 040 /// /// 05
022700 2927N 09320W 8426 01538 //// +169 //// 059037 038 031 001 05
022730 2925N 09319W 8430 01532 //// +170 //// 059037 038 034 002 01
022800 2923N 09319W 8428 01535 //// +169 //// 058037 038 034 002 01
022830 2922N 09319W 8431 01532 //// +168 //// 054035 036 035 001 01
022900 2920N 09319W 8430 01532 //// +170 //// 053035 036 036 001 01
022930 2918N 09319W 8427 01535 //// +163 //// 052037 038 035 002 01
023000 2916N 09319W 8434 01526 //// +170 //// 052036 037 035 001 01
023030 2914N 09320W 8429 01531 //// +170 //// 053037 038 035 002 01
023100 2913N 09320W 8431 01530 //// +171 //// 052036 037 034 001 01
023130 2911N 09320W 8432 01527 //// +169 //// 056035 035 034 001 01
023200 2909N 09320W 8429 01530 //// +170 //// 055033 033 034 001 01
023230 2907N 09320W 8429 01530 //// +170 //// 056034 035 035 000 01
023300 2905N 09320W 8429 01530 //// +170 //// 057033 033 035 001 01
023330 2904N 09320W 8432 01526 //// +169 //// 057032 032 034 000 01
$$
;

[JSDS]

I agree about the point and click forecasts, but our best TV met (IMHO) did a live chat this afternoon and was giving numbers of 40-50 mph with higher gusts. I think that was for Sunday into Monday. Basically, he said winds would not be as high as they were in Gustov, but they would be here longer and that we could expect wind damage and some power outages. He is usually very conservative and low-key, not an alarmist at all - kind of reminds me of wxman57. He is the former Louisiana State Climatologist and is now chief meteorologist at one of our local TV stations.

[BigB0882]

Lee looked so awful an hour or so ago that I swore to not come back until the morning. Well, I got bored but glad I wasn't seeing things. All that dry air which had kept the West side in check totally took over and ate up almost all of it but the Northeast blob. I am not sure if anything will be there tomorrow but this things seems to struggle at night and look better in the morning. It could just be a little obstacle or it could be the nail in the coffin. One thing is for sure, no way will rain totals be close to expected unless convection starts firing again where it just got taken away.

[Annie Oakley]

SNOOP DAWG! Thanks...how refreshing

[Sean in New Orleans]

I wish it would move onshore...I hate for it to rain the entire holiday weekend. For those that wishcast, I truly wish this was on top of your house for Labor Day weekend.

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 23

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 24

[SoupBone]

So what are everyone's thoughts about the dry air getting sucked in? It also looks east of the foretasted points right now as well.

[Annie Oakley]

#8 RECCO
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 02:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 08

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 2:28Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.4N 93.3W
Location: 57 miles (91 km) to the S (186°) from Lake Charles, LA, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 60° at 36 knots (From the ENE at ~ 41.4 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,463 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 33 knots (~ 38.0mph)

[JSDS]

I am just glad that those winds seem like they are not going to materialize. Such a long duration of those kind of winds and rain would be disastrous. I can't imagine the number of trees that would fall.

I sincerely hope it does not materialize! I am at 30.54/91.15, so this would be almost right on top of me:

48H 04/1800Z 29.7N 91.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

[Annie Oakley]

VDM
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 02:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 1:52:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°11'N 91°46'W (28.1833N 91.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 141 miles (227 km) to the S (174°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,427m (4,682ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 91 nautical miles (105 statute miles) to the ESE (119°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 196° at 41kts (From the SSW at ~ 47.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 58 nautical miles (67 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Wind Outbound: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:15:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) in the northwest quadrant at 2:15:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the ESE (110°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFMR SFC WIND NW QUAD 38 KTS.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030243
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 25 20110903
023400 2902N 09320W 8428 01532 //// +168 //// 055031 032 035 001 01
023430 2900N 09320W 8429 01530 //// +167 //// 053030 031 034 001 01
023500 2858N 09320W 8431 01527 //// +170 //// 050030 031 035 000 05
023530 2856N 09320W 8431 01525 //// +162 //// 049030 031 033 001 01
023600 2854N 09320W 8430 01527 //// +160 //// 047031 031 033 002 01
023630 2853N 09320W 8433 01522 //// +161 //// 046029 030 033 002 01
023700 2851N 09320W 8428 01528 //// +160 //// 047029 030 034 001 01
023730 2849N 09320W 8429 01527 //// +159 //// 043028 029 033 001 01
023800 2847N 09320W 8426 01530 //// +161 //// 041031 032 034 001 01
023830 2845N 09320W 8433 01521 //// +160 //// 043029 030 032 001 01
023900 2843N 09320W 8430 01525 //// +160 //// 042031 032 033 002 01
023930 2842N 09320W 8429 01526 //// +161 //// 043030 032 033 002 01
024000 2840N 09320W 8430 01524 //// +167 //// 042032 032 030 001 01
024030 2838N 09320W 8427 01526 //// +168 //// 039032 033 030 000 01
024100 2836N 09320W 8433 01520 //// +166 //// 041032 033 030 001 01
024130 2834N 09320W 8430 01522 //// +161 //// 041033 033 031 000 01
024200 2832N 09320W 8430 01522 //// +161 //// 043033 034 030 001 01
024230 2831N 09320W 8432 01520 //// +165 //// 044032 033 031 001 01
024300 2829N 09320W 8430 01520 //// +164 //// 043032 032 030 000 01
024330 2827N 09320W 8430 01520 //// +168 //// 040033 035 031 001 01
$$

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 25

[tailgater]

Looks like on long range radar that the center(possible mid level) is moving on shore between Grand Isle and Vermilion Bay.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...LEE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 91.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW AND POSSIBLY
ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A WIND
GUST TO 41 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT LAKEFRONT AIRPORT IN NEW
ORLEANS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 1000 MB...29.53
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN



TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

SATALLITE...SURFACE...AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT
LEE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. THE CENTER IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN SIZE THIS
EVENING. WIND REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND OIL RIGS OVER THE GULF AND
DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL
STORM REMAINS AROUND 40 KT.

LEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW LEE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS
THE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT LEE WILL SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
INTERACT WITH THE CYCLONE AND LEE SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...
HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF LEE
ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. IT
IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LEE...SINCE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXTEND WELL AWAY OF
THE CENTER.

A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF LEE CONTINUES TO
IMPART ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER AIR
ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH LANDFALL AND
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 28.2N 91.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 28.6N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 29.4N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 30.0N 91.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 30.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 31.5N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0000Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0000Z 35.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030253
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 26 20110903
024400 2825N 09320W 8432 01519 //// +169 //// 039034 035 030 000 01
024430 2823N 09320W 8430 01520 //// +171 //// 040034 035 029 001 01
024500 2821N 09320W 8437 01509 //// +168 //// 038034 035 029 001 01
024530 2819N 09320W 8431 01516 //// +174 //// 038031 031 028 002 01
024600 2818N 09320W 8434 01514 //// +172 //// 039030 031 029 001 01
024630 2816N 09320W 8429 01519 //// +171 //// 036031 032 028 001 01
024700 2814N 09320W 8429 01520 //// +172 //// 034032 033 030 000 01
024730 2812N 09320W 8429 01521 //// +174 //// 034032 033 031 000 01
024800 2812N 09320W 8429 01521 //// +175 //// 031030 030 030 000 01
024830 2808N 09320W 8429 01519 //// +177 //// 029030 031 030 000 01
024900 2806N 09321W 8433 01514 //// +175 //// 026031 031 028 001 01
024930 2804N 09321W 8432 01514 //// +172 //// 022030 031 030 000 05
025000 2802N 09321W 8431 01515 //// +171 //// 025032 033 031 000 01
025030 2801N 09321W 8433 01514 //// +171 //// 024032 033 032 000 01
025100 2759N 09321W 8429 01517 //// +173 //// 026033 034 031 001 01
025130 2757N 09321W 8430 01516 //// +170 //// 030028 029 030 001 01
025200 2755N 09321W 8430 01515 //// +171 //// 027026 027 030 000 05
025230 2753N 09321W 8429 01516 //// +171 //// 033026 027 028 002 01
025300 2751N 09321W 8433 01512 //// +170 //// 033025 026 029 002 01
025330 2749N 09321W 8426 01519 //// +170 //// 030024 025 030 002 01
$$
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