ATL: IRENE - Models

[jinftl]

Would a track to the north of hispanola delay the impact of the trough moving in because the storm would be a bit further east and the trough would take longer to reach it and therefore impact the track?

Now we need a set of models with the redeveloped center to the north factored in

200 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

...CENTER OF IRENE REDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH...STORM STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 60.4W

yep possibly north of hispaniola..

[Aric Dunn]

gfdl shifted east.. still a west outlier

[SouthFLTropics]

That run of the HWRF is somewhat unnerving especially since it normally has a right bias. A hair left and it rides up the coast in a big way! Good thing the intensity is probably overcooked on that run.

SFT

[SFLcane]

[maxintensity]

The Dr. is checking in. Don't know where it will end but I expect a very provocative run

[SouthFLTropics]

Bring on the Almighty Euro...ALL HAIL EURO!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

With the relocation of the center to the north, I would think can expect a major shift to the right which would be great news!

[Cyclenall]

What I don't see talked about is how in pretty much every single run other than the far westward plots Haiti gets blasted by a large and dangerous hurricane. They have had nothing but terrible luck since 2008 and they can't handle anything above a tropical wave. In one word for them: catastrophic, especially if it stalls out or takes its time moving around there.

One thing to remember about this latest GFS model run, if it does slow down big-time over the Florida straights as a powerful hurricane, that could be very damaging for the coasts on the east side. Tons of variance with this one.

Wasn't there a met on tonight that said it's reasonable to think that Irene could pass to the east of Florida entirely? Would than mean miss the USA entirely?

He said that twice without giving any further details. He must be confusing this with one of Hurricane Ernesto's model runs from August 2006.

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL wind swath

[SouthFLTropics]

With the relocation of the center to the north, I would think can expect a major shift to the right which would be great news!

Maybe...or maybe not. The NW turn could still come at about the same time which would still put it on the East Coast of Florida. In addition if it shifts North and stays to the North of Hispaniola the amount of land interaction would be minimal which would lead to a much stronger storm possibly. On a positive note it could possibly have less impact on the people of Hispaniola. Right now they are looking at a major disaster. Back in 2004 Jeanne, which was only a Tropical Storm at the time, ended up killing more than 3000 people in Haiti.

SFT

[ConvergenceZone]

With the relocation of the center to the north, I would think can expect a major shift to the right which would be great news!

Maybe...or maybe not. The NW turn could still come at about the same time which would still put it on the East Coast of Florida. In addition if it shifts North and stays to the North of Hispaniola the amount of land interaction would be minimal which would lead to a much stronger storm possibly. On a positive note it could possibly have less impact on the people of Hispaniola. Right now they are looking at a major disaster. Back in 2004 Jeanne, which was only a Tropical Storm at the time, ended up killing more than 3000 people in Haiti.

SFT

SouthFLTropics, actually what I meant is if somehow it's able to miss the USA entirely(escape through a weakness etc)...
Perhaps turning just before it hits the Carolina Coast maybe?

[DESTRUCTION5]

48 Hrs EURO

[clfenwi]

00Z UKMET, the left outlier. Note that even though it starts way south, it does jump the storm north quickly to get it more on track.


TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 59.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092011

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 21.08.2011 14.3N 59.4W WEAK
12UTC 21.08.2011 16.2N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 22.08.2011 16.8N 65.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 22.08.2011 16.7N 69.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 23.08.2011 17.5N 70.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 23.08.2011 17.7N 74.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 24.08.2011 18.4N 76.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2011 19.1N 78.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.08.2011 19.6N 80.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.08.2011 20.8N 82.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.08.2011 21.7N 85.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2011 22.9N 86.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2011 23.8N 88.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[jinftl]

The Outer Banks are about the same longitude as the nw coast of haiti. Not sure if a storm moving north through the bahamas would be that great of news....haven't seen any indication it would turn out to sea yet...a storm moving to the north east of florida is due south of the Carolinas and south-southwest of Long Island and New England.

A big shift to the north could also mean less time over land and more time to intensify.

With the relocation of the center to the north, I would think can expect a major shift to the right which would be great news!

[SouthFLTropics]

With the relocation of the center to the north, I would think can expect a major shift to the right which would be great news!

Maybe...or maybe not. The NW turn could still come at about the same time which would still put it on the East Coast of Florida. In addition if it shifts North and stays to the North of Hispaniola the amount of land interaction would be minimal which would lead to a much stronger storm possibly. On a positive note it could possibly have less impact on the people of Hispaniola. Right now they are looking at a major disaster. Back in 2004 Jeanne, which was only a Tropical Storm at the time, ended up killing more than 3000 people in Haiti.

SFT

SouthFLTropics, actually what I meant is if somehow it's able to miss the USA entirely(escape through a weakness etc)...
Perhaps turning just before it hits the Carolina Coast maybe?

Ah, got ya...Either way I think it's going to be a close call.

SFT

[blp]

48 Hrs EURO

Getting beat up with Hispaniola.

[DESTRUCTION5]

72 Hrs...Lined up with GFS

[blp]

72 Hrs...Lined up with GFS

Getting organized again, took the blow.

[maxintensity]

I was expecting euro to be further north. Maybe it has not caught on to the center relocation.

[ConvergenceZone]

Ah, got ya...Either way I think it's going to be a close call.
SFT

I agree with you there. Actually, the only reason I brought up "recurve" is because they mentioned it on the weather tonight. Stating that SHOULD it go east of Florida, whether it hits the USA or not is largely dependent on the positioning of the HIGH Pressure to the east of the USA.... So I've been trying to study as many upper air maps as I can to see if potentially it may end up recurving out to sea, but it seems to be a close call......