ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

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CYCLONE MIKE
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2141 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:16 pm

Just got home and playing catch-up reading through the pages and noticed no one has mentioned the ULL just off the east coast of Florida. Doesn't appear to be in any hurry to move and is actually drifting west. Could/will this have any effect on the ridge as it attempts to build in? And of course any effects on Don that may leave a bigger weakness along the north gulf coast to allow for more north movement?
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2142 Postby SunnyThoughts » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:18 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2143 Postby jasons2k » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:20 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:From Greg Bostwick (KFDM 6 Chief Met) facebook page:

System in the Gulf will be upgraded to TS "Don". Don is packing 40 mph winds with motion to the WNW about 12 mph. Don could become a CAT 1 hurricane before landfall which will likely be near Brownsville Friday evening.


That's interesting because the consensus is up around the Central TX coastline...


It's not really a consensus as much as it is splitting the difference between two scenarios. FWIW at this time I don't think the GFS and its children have the right idea and I'm leaning towards a lower TX coast landfall. I won't be convinced until the plane data is ingested into tonight's runs, however.
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#2144 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:21 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 272117
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 27 20110727
210800 2218N 08702W 9772 00240 0045 +226 +178 071033 035 /// /// 03
210830 2218N 08701W 9771 00236 0039 +222 +179 069032 035 022 004 03
210900 2216N 08701W 9774 00228 0031 +237 +179 039024 027 010 007 03
210930 2215N 08700W 9773 00222 0023 +239 +180 036018 022 022 004 03
211000 2215N 08658W 9765 00218 0011 +249 +180 046011 014 005 003 03
211030 2214N 08657W 9772 00205 0004 +249 +181 040005 006 /// /// 03
211100 2213N 08655W 9773 00203 0003 +238 +183 236004 011 002 002 03
211130 2213N 08654W 9771 00209 0007 +233 +184 222022 035 021 003 03
211200 2212N 08652W 9774 00214 0017 +228 +185 218044 046 /// /// 03
211230 2211N 08653W 9769 00218 0017 +225 +186 221041 043 036 001 03
211300 2213N 08654W 9757 00222 0008 +231 +186 220018 025 028 002 03
211330 2214N 08655W 9774 00203 0004 +240 +186 113007 010 000 004 03
211400 2215N 08656W 9772 00206 0003 +248 +186 089017 019 005 005 03
211430 2216N 08658W 9778 00206 0010 +249 +186 078020 021 009 002 03
211500 2217N 08659W 9769 00220 0017 +250 +188 073025 027 023 002 03
211530 2219N 08700W 9769 00227 0029 +231 +189 075033 035 026 001 03
211600 2220N 08701W 9766 00242 0040 +221 +189 076035 035 025 002 03
211630 2221N 08703W 9767 00242 0045 +218 +187 076037 038 029 001 03
211700 2222N 08704W 9774 00245 0053 +219 +184 080040 042 030 002 00
211730 2223N 08705W 9768 00256 0059 +220 +181 084041 043 032 001 03
$$
;

Pressure 1000mb. 46 kt FL winds.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2145 Postby drezee » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:22 pm

hmmmm....
recon just found 1000.3 mb with a ~20kt wind
that would equate to 998mb at least using the 10kts per mb rule...interesting

211400 2215N 08656W 9772 00206 0003 +248 +186 089017 019 005 005 03
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#2146 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:22 pm

Pressure from recon now at 1000mbs, so fairly steady at the moment but the presentation does seem to be improving.

Dreeze, thats a good point, pressure probably is a little lower afterall!
Last edited by KWT on Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#2147 Postby JTE50 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:23 pm

drezee wrote:
RL3AO wrote:IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR
INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET
STRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.

Thats an important note from NHC. Thats basically them saying if they had a 60 hr forecast point it would be 60 or 65kt.


Indeed, if I were in TX I would be preparing for the landfall of a hurricane.


That comes out to about 110 miles of water before landfall on my gps map. Give or take.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2148 Postby Houstonia » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:24 pm

Bleagh.. not to go too off-topic, but it looks like the effects of Don will be short-lived and can I just make a very public wish/prayer for NO power outages?

TROPICAL STORM DON WILL MOVE QUICKLY INLAND AFTER LANDFALL AND
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY EVENING. SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION COULD PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING MOISTURE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK ACROSS
TEXAS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. BASED ON MODEL CONSISTENCY AND FORECAST 850 MB
TEMPS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR OF THIS
VERY HOT SUMMER ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK. EVEN THE CONSERVATIVE MEXMOS
IS FORECASTING HIGHS CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES IN HOUSTON.
HAVE BUMPED
UP TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. KEPT 20 POPS GOING EACH DAY FOR
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2149 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:26 pm

winds will catch up....take some time...
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#2150 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:26 pm

Houstonia, depends on how strong it gets...

The thing I will say is its quite a small area, so the rainfall region may not be as large as you'd expect from a top end TS/Marginal hurricane.
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Re:

#2151 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:28 pm

KWT wrote:Houstonia, depends on how strong it gets...

The thing I will say is its quite a small area, so the rainfall region may not be as large as you'd expect from a top end TS/Marginal hurricane.


Yeah, but landfall can of course do all sorts of things to a storm, including expanding the rain field by quite a bit.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, Houston news is all over this... Shocker. :lol:
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Re:

#2152 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:29 pm

KWT wrote:Rgv20, I've just looked through the Alex thread, its amazing how similar the models were, UKMO/ECM further west, the GFS and its hurricane suite (GFDL, etc) were further east...and as per normal, the middle was right, perhaps slightly leaning closer to the ECM/UKMO solution.

If only for the rain hopefully the central track is right, a landfall close to where Bret came in would be decent.


Yeap Kennedy County would be a perfect landfall location for minimizing property damage. And as I have said before NE Mexico to Port La Vaca would be my cone and the stronger Don gets the more likely it veers more westward.
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Re: Re:

#2153 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:29 pm

JTE50 wrote:
That comes out to about 110 miles of water before landfall on my gps map. Give or take.


Plenty of space for it to strengthen to a hurricane from 55kts, heck Humberto went from nearly nothing to a hurricane in that sort of space!
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#2154 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:30 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 272127
AF300 01DDA INVEST HDOB 28 20110727
211800 2225N 08707W 9762 00265 0064 +217 +179 085036 039 028 001 03
211830 2226N 08708W 9770 00260 0068 +215 +177 084034 036 027 002 03
211900 2227N 08709W 9766 00266 0070 +215 +175 083033 034 026 003 00
211930 2228N 08711W 9778 00257 0073 +218 +173 084032 034 027 000 03
212000 2229N 08712W 9773 00264 0076 +219 +172 080032 033 025 002 03
212030 2231N 08713W 9744 00292 0076 +215 +171 082033 036 026 003 00
212100 2232N 08715W 9747 00290 0078 +219 +170 088036 037 028 001 00
212130 2233N 08716W 9752 00285 0078 +217 +168 089035 037 030 004 03
212200 2234N 08717W 9749 00293 0081 +216 +166 088033 034 029 005 00
212230 2235N 08719W 9742 00299 0083 +217 +163 088030 031 029 003 00
212300 2237N 08720W 9742 00298 0081 +215 +161 086031 033 028 003 00
212330 2238N 08721W 9747 00294 0083 +216 +159 089030 030 025 005 00
212400 2239N 08723W 9748 00294 0083 +221 +157 087029 030 027 002 00
212430 2240N 08724W 9741 00299 0082 +223 +157 091026 027 026 002 03
212500 2241N 08725W 9750 00290 0081 +224 +158 097024 025 018 004 03
212530 2243N 08727W 9739 00301 0082 +227 +160 093025 026 019 002 00
212600 2244N 08728W 9749 00290 0080 +228 +162 088027 028 023 002 03
212630 2245N 08729W 9752 00292 0082 +226 +164 092027 029 026 003 03
212700 2246N 08731W 9751 00295 0086 +230 +165 089025 027 019 002 03
212730 2247N 08732W 9744 00304 0088 +230 +166 085025 025 013 003 00
$$
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Re: Re:

#2155 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:31 pm

KWT wrote:
JTE50 wrote:
That comes out to about 110 miles of water before landfall on my gps map. Give or take.


Plenty of space for it to strengthen to a hurricane from 55kts, heck Humberto went from nearly nothing to a hurricane in that sort of space!



too much time for my liking...
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#2156 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:31 pm

They seem to be struggling with regards to that center, probably suggests the center is wobbling around quite alot...could indicate its about to undergo RI??

Who knows, could also be as simple as the motion being quite different from what they were expecting...I'd be surprised if it was just bad flying, those guys are real pros at this sort of thing afterall.
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Re: ATL: DON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#2157 Postby Lowpressure » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:36 pm

I also think the model forecast strength is on the low side. See no reason why this does not become a cane. Some shear, but too much in it's favor.
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#2158 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:37 pm

Current data suggests an intensity of about 45 kt.
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#2159 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:38 pm

Don looks like he "may" picking up some forward speed. IMO


http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12
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Re: Re:

#2160 Postby KWT » Wed Jul 27, 2011 4:38 pm

ROCK wrote:too much time for my liking...


Given its small size it also won't take in too much dry air till its making landfall, probably means strengthening right upto landfall...keep an eye on the microwave imagery when the next one comes out, esp if it starts to form anything resembling an inner core...
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