ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 41

gotta sign off.

[LaBreeze]

The 18z doubles my rain... probably because it shifted a little west when comparing the 54h on the 12z and the 48h on the 18z... landfall in SW LA. Still on the dry side, but 2.5 inches would be better than 1.25 inches. Of course, I take it all with a grain of salt and just keep on praying for rain!

Btw, it's quite breezy here.

Are you thinking more of a landfall in Vermilion Bay rather than St. Mary Parish. Rainfall has definitely increased here in Vermilion Parish and winds are gusty.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030533
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 42 20110903
052400 2852N 09159W 8429 01464 //// +185 //// 121017 017 015 000 01
052430 2854N 09159W 8432 01463 //// +185 //// 116017 018 017 001 01
052500 2856N 09159W 8429 01464 //// +187 //// 114017 018 019 000 01
052530 2858N 09200W 8430 01465 //// +183 //// 118021 021 022 001 01
052600 2859N 09200W 8433 01461 //// +182 //// 124027 031 032 013 01
052630 2901N 09200W 8443 01452 //// +157 //// 125041 045 044 011 05
052700 2903N 09201W 8431 01464 //// +156 //// 100040 043 048 018 01
052730 2905N 09201W 8433 01458 //// +149 //// 094040 041 055 028 01
052800 2906N 09201W 8426 01472 //// +146 //// 095039 040 052 021 05
052830 2908N 09201W 8430 01470 //// +153 //// 095038 038 046 007 01
052900 2910N 09202W 8433 01471 //// +152 //// 094038 040 046 006 01
052930 2911N 09202W 8435 01468 //// +167 //// 093036 039 044 006 01
053000 2913N 09202W 8413 01491 //// +165 //// 098040 042 044 005 01
053030 2915N 09203W 8435 01466 //// +167 //// 095043 044 046 004 01
053100 2916N 09203W 8426 01486 //// +166 //// 091043 045 044 005 01
053130 2918N 09203W 8426 01477 //// +167 //// 092044 046 044 005 01
053200 2920N 09203W 8430 01475 //// +169 //// 093047 049 043 004 01
053230 2921N 09204W 8430 01479 //// +169 //// 093049 050 044 005 01
053300 2923N 09204W 8435 01476 //// +166 //// 087052 053 043 006 01
053330 2925N 09204W 8430 01482 //// +166 //// 087052 053 043 007 01
$$
;

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030543
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 43 20110903
053400 2926N 09205W 8432 01482 //// +156 //// 079055 058 045 008 05
053430 2928N 09205W 8430 01482 //// +158 //// 075053 057 048 011 01
053500 2929N 09205W 8435 01481 //// +147 //// 076055 057 044 013 01
053530 2931N 09205W 8427 01491 //// +141 //// 079056 056 041 009 01
053600 2931N 09205W 8427 01491 //// +160 //// 081056 057 041 005 01
053630 2934N 09206W 8432 01491 //// +167 //// 083053 054 038 000 05
053700 2935N 09206W 8432 01490 //// +166 //// 083051 051 /// /// 05
053730 2935N 09209W 8433 01491 //// +173 //// 078047 047 /// /// 05
053800 2935N 09211W 8432 01493 //// +170 //// 075047 048 /// /// 05
053830 2935N 09213W 8432 01494 //// +166 //// 074048 048 /// /// 05
053900 2935N 09215W 8432 01494 //// +168 //// 074048 048 /// /// 05
053930 2935N 09218W 8433 01496 //// +172 //// 074047 047 /// /// 05
054000 2935N 09220W 8422 01507 //// +173 //// 067049 050 /// /// 05
054030 2935N 09223W 8432 01497 //// +172 //// 064047 048 /// /// 05
054100 2935N 09225W 8081 01838 //// +158 //// 064043 045 /// /// 05
054130 2935N 09228W 7633 02319 //// +136 //// 059040 042 /// /// 05
054200 2935N 09230W 7238 02769 //// +120 //// 056035 036 /// /// 05
054230 2935N 09232W 7004 03054 //// +099 //// 054033 033 /// /// 05
054300 2935N 09235W 6915 03176 //// +091 //// 056027 028 /// /// 05
054330 2935N 09235W 6915 03176 //// +090 //// 049027 027 /// /// 05
$$
;

[dwsqos2]

58 knot flight-level winds were observed near 29.43N 92.08W; that's probably the reason it's getting so gusty in Vermillion Parish.

[LaBreeze]

58 knot flight-level winds were observed near 29.43N 92.08W; that's probably the reason it's getting so gusty in Vermillion Parish.

Noticed a couple of power outages nearby - crews working to restore. I'm still on thankfully!

[Annie Oakley]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 13L in 2011
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 13
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 5:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°40'N 92°06'W (28.6667N 92.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 107 miles (172 km) to the S (182°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,403m (4,603ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NNW (334°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 62° at 45kts (From the ENE at ~ 51.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the NNW (331°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:34:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the north quadrant at 5:34:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SE (143°) from the flight level center

[supercane]

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NUMEROUS RAINBANDS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST. LEE IS
MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A CONTINUED
SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATE TODAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...
325 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA
BUOY 42040 LOCATED EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIVER
RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 45 MPH...72 KM/HR...AND A
WIND GUST OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS IS 997 MB...29.44
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...AND BY AS
MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA COASTS INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE DETAILS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN

[supercane]

From intermediate advisory:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

...LEE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...NUMEROUS RAINBANDS MOVING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 91.8W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[BigB0882]

Down to 997. That is a decent drop. Could be cutting it close to making a run to hurricane if it can stay out over water long enough.

[Annie Oakley]

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 05:52Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 13
Storm Name: Lee (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 15

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Saturday, 5:38Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 29.6N 92.2W
Location: 44 miles (70 km) to the SSW (194°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 1,520 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 48 knots (From the ENE at ~ 55.2 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 17°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Not available, probably because the dew point hygrometer was not working.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s)
850 mb Surface Altitude: 1,426 geopotential meters

Remarks Section...

Mission Status: Concluded (Last Report)

[MGC]

Just got in from a drive along Hwy 90. Very squally out tonight. Periods of heavy rain and wind then light wind along with light rain. While stopped at a red light the car was buffeted a bit. Noticed leaves and small branches breaking off trees. Much more wind tonight than this morning.....MGC

[CYCLONE MIKE]

At its current speed has about 18 hrs or so before landfall. Wonder if it will slow back down or even stall sometime tomorrow as it gets closer to land. Anyone know if steering currents are going to weaken more or expected to pick up?

[Annie Oakley]

Gosh I hope it doesn't stall.........excellent question about the steering. If only it would move some and lesson the drenching.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

A few tornado warnings are starting to pop up. Should only increase as Lee strengthens and moves closer to the coast.

[stormhunter7]

was curious about the 997mb in 1am and how far it jumped NW from last recon fix. I see dropsonde has a 25mph wind at surface.. so they knocked two mb's off the 999mb reading. very weird jumps on the COC. the dry air/ ULL is giving lee a hard time!

[Annie Oakley]

Glad you caught that storm...I feel bad I didn't post the final dropsonde.Good eye and yes that is very hopeful info

[gone2beach]

Just got in from a drive along Hwy 90. Very squally out tonight. Periods of heavy rain and wind then light wind along with light rain. While stopped at a red light the car was buffeted a bit. Noticed leaves and small branches breaking off trees. Much more wind tonight than this morning.....MGC

Tornado warnings now for Harrison, Hancock and Jackson till 1:30 AM.

[bamajammer4eva]

Damage reports. Tornado or Tropical Storm??

lixchat 2011/09/03 1:16 AM iembot LIX: Pass Christian [Harrison Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:30 AM CDT -- tree down on st paul ave and north st.


lixchat 2011/09/03 1:16 AM iembot LIX: Pass Christian [Harrison Co, MS] emergency mngr reports FLASH FLOOD at 12:30 AM CDT -- street flooding at st paul ave and north st.


lixchat 2011/09/03 1:16 AM iembot LIX: 4 N Biloxi [Harrison Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:30 AM CDT -- tree down. time estimated.


lixchat 2011/09/03 1:16 AM iembot LIX: Gulfport [Harrison Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TSTM WND DMG at 12:35 AM CDT -- tree down on corner of 24th ave and 23rd st. time estimated.


lixchat 2011/09/03 1:16 AM iembot LIX: Pass Christian [Harrison Co, MS] emergency mngr reports TROPICAL STORM at 12:35 AM CDT -- 26 ft sail boat broke mooring and coming over sea wall near pass christian harbor.

[Turtle]

Hope you guys stay safe! I'll be safe in Texas, but my radar (the Shreveport NWS) is teasing me by showing rain in the SE corner near Alexandria.