ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

I'm already tired of Lee. That Tornado Warning as I was dozing off made me jump out of bed. I hate this crap.

[cyclogenesis]

9/3/2011
this Saturday morning
320 AM CDT


I've also added informal notes to Tropical Storm "Lee" on to a newly-opened blog site at:


http://tropicswatching.blogspot.com/





-- cyclogenesis

[MWatkins]

I'm not trying to belittle this. But after staring at water vapor loops and a 3Z upper-level wind analysis on CIMSS, this looks rather subtropical to me, or at least subtropicalish.

100% agree. The ULL got pulled in and we're dealing with a subtropical gyre out there. Looks almost frontal...and won't have enough time over water to work the dry air out.

MW

[SoupBone]

What's crazy about Lee is that he keeps eating dry air, but he's spawning nasty cells to his North, NE, and NW. I also notice that his rain bands stop at the Texas line almost as if he knows that Texas is our neighbor. It's crazy.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-avn.html

[bamajammer4eva]

By Satellite I would guess Center has relocated to 28.5N 91.8W????

[SoupBone]

Has it relocated or is it just exposed? Looks like some naked swirling.

[bamajammer4eva]

The tiny red dot south of Lafayette or Iberia is 28.5N/91.8 W

[Lane]

Per TWC down to 995.

[bamajammer4eva]

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 91.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[supercane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 030857
TCDAT3

TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011

SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT LEE HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS NOW
NEAR 45 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A LARGE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE GENERAL
APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT LEE HAS AT LEAST
SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING
ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH VERY CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM...AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

THE CENTER HAS TENDED TO REFORM FROM TIME TO TIME...WHICH MAKES THE
INITIAL MOTION OF 345/6 RATHER UNCERTAIN. MOST TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT LEE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HR
AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENS...FIRST GENERALLY NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER 48
HR...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE A
FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT SPEED.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THEN LIES
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 36 HOURS ONWARD.

GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ISSUES WITH SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE NOT YET
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...LEE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL. WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL IS LIKELY
TO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL TO THE THE MARSHY NATURE OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST AND THE AMOUNT OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
WATER. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEE IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...A SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WINDS AND RAINS OF LEE EXTEND FAR FROM
THE CENTER...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 28.8N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 29.3N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 30.0N 91.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 30.5N 91.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 31.0N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0600Z 32.5N 88.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 07/0600Z 35.0N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, I'm up....we've had sustained tropical storm conditions in New Orleans for the last 3 hours....it's a mess. Have had gusts up to 50mph in Mid-City. Limbs down and debris scattered around the streets. It's a storm, that's for sure....still have power. Decent squalls pass every 15 or so minutes.

[SoupBone]

He's still eating at the all you can eat Texas dry air buffet too.

[Time_Zone]

This is one ugly looking storm....

[Sean in New Orleans]

Got a nice train heading straight for New Orleans that looks certain to flood parts of the city...it's carrying a good 3 inches in an hour....GREAT. I wish this was hitting someone who actually likes these things. It may be ugly on satellite, but, it's slamming New Orleans.

[bamajammer4eva]

He's still eating at the all you can eat Texas dry air buffet too.

[img]http://anony.ws/di-2XCB.jpg

Hate to say this but look above at my pic then look at yours. The area of no convection near the center is closing. Looks like the backwards C is getting a smaller hole in the middle.

[CajunMama]

Darn that heavy rain waking me up after i finally got back to sleep again. Just windy and rainy here.

[windnrain]

Whelp, I woke up.

Rainy as hell here in Baton Rouge.

Looking at that map, it looks like Lee is going to hit land soon, maybe this will all go away by labor day? Just dreaming! lol.

[Cranica]

I'm not trying to belittle this. But after staring at water vapor loops and a 3Z upper-level wind analysis on CIMSS, this looks rather subtropical to me, or at least subtropicalish.

100% agree. The ULL got pulled in and we're dealing with a subtropical gyre out there. Looks almost frontal...and won't have enough time over water to work the dry air out.

MW

Count my vote in for this as well. Looks like one of those Gulf A-storms that spawn off a front in June, not a September homebrew.

Anyone with knowledge of recon data able to see if that data supports a deep warm core?

[Janie2006]

Keep your eyes peeled over in SE Louisiana....currently 4 tornado warnings showing up in the NO area alone, 2 on the north side of the lake and 2 on the south side.

[stormreader]

Darn that heavy rain waking me up after i finally got back to sleep again. Just windy and rainy here.

And the forecast track now looks to take Lee right over Lafayette, La. It has shifted west a little. Pressure has fallen off quite a bit too. Now at 29.38 inches which is usually equivalent to a decent tropical storm. The "center" should be very near Lafayette in the wee hours of tomorrow morning. Yesterday the hope in Cajun country expressed by local mets was that most of the wet stuff would be further east. Well it will be there allright, but the Lafayette-New Iberia area looks to get in on a little more of the action than anticipated.