ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[Extratropical94]

8AM (1200Z) TWO: back at code orange (30% chance)

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JAMAICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WINDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND
JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN

[NDG]

At least 3 runs in a row that the ecmwf has at least the moisture from 94L to move towards FL by the end of the week into the weekend. GFS is starting to lean towards that solution as well.

[ronjon]

Looks like the SW mid-level shear is abating. The system is developing a nice inflow band of convection from the south. NHC now mentions gradual development. Models are coming into better agreement with the Euro, GFS, and NOGAPs hinting at a slow NW movement toward the YUC or Western tip of Cuba and then the system getting pulled north next weekend. That's a climatologically favored track this time of year.

[ronjon]

NWS Miami AFD:

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE THIS FAR OUT INTO EXTENDED
FORECAST...THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE INDICATE
INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH
OF CUBA SLOWLY DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWEST. DUE TO THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE RAINFALL PROBABILITIES BACK
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO EXPRESS SOME DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY.

[NDG]

I bet that with such an intense area of convection and still a broad area of low pressure circulation we could possibly see a LLC develop closer to the convection later on this morning or early afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Now the question is,will recon go this afternoon. I say is 50/50.

[KWT]

The convection is certainly interesting though it needs to hold for a while yet before things get interesting.

I still think a weak system may well try and form in the next few days, whether it makes it or not remains to be seen though.

[Macrocane]

I think that D-max is in part responsible for 94L's improvement, it just needs to mantain the convection and improve its outflow and it may start getting its act together.

[KWT]

Now the question is,will recon go this afternoon. I say is 50/50.

Depends on whether the convectin can hold like it is at the moment and whether there are signs of a strengthening circulation, if so then there is probably a decent shot, 50-50 as you say.

[HURAKAN]

12z

AL, 94, 2011060512, , BEST, 0, 162N, 793W, 25, 1007, DB

[gatorcane]

To me this thing looks like it is organizing again. That convection is sustaining.

I am actually in the Bahamas right now. So hopefully it stays away (though it is dry here)

I say code red later today.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 051222
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1222 UTC SUN JUN 5 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110605 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110605  1200   110606  0000   110606  1200   110607  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  79.3W   16.6N  80.4W   16.8N  81.2W   17.1N  81.9W
BAMD    16.2N  79.3W   16.7N  80.2W   17.4N  80.8W   18.5N  81.1W
BAMM    16.2N  79.3W   16.6N  80.4W   17.0N  81.2W   17.6N  81.6W
LBAR    16.2N  79.3W   16.9N  79.9W   17.9N  80.1W   19.0N  79.5W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          32KTS          36KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110607  1200   110608  1200   110609  1200   110610  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.1N  82.5W   17.0N  84.1W   17.1N  86.0W   17.4N  88.0W
BAMD    20.0N  80.5W   23.5N  79.3W   26.9N  80.1W   28.9N  82.5W
BAMM    17.9N  81.7W   18.7N  82.3W   20.5N  83.0W   22.3N  84.4W
LBAR    19.9N  78.4W   22.1N  74.7W   25.5N  70.7W   28.3N  65.8W
SHIP        38KTS          30KTS          16KTS           0KTS
DSHP        38KTS          30KTS          16KTS           0KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR =  79.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  16.1N LONM12 =  78.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  16.2N LONM24 =  77.8W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  175NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[gatorcane]

Lots of dry air to the north as seen on the wv image. Also note the ridge over the gom (it is building eastward over Florida and the Bahamas)

[GCANE]

Looks like it is trying to flare again at 16.2N 76.5W with a small overshooting top.

[HURAKAN]

looking at the latest satellite loops makes me believe that 94L has been hard at work since last night and continues to become better organized

[NDG]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

To me, the center of circulation is a little more N & E than where they estimated the center to be at 12z.
I think is a bit elongated, still well displaced from the deep convection, but if you remember yesterday morning, the convection was well east and SE from the center, now is starting to get in the NE quadrant of the circulation, and like I said earlier, I would not be surprised if a LLC forms closer to the deep convection & MLC since all we have right now is a broad circulation.
I would say send the recon in, is worth it.

[cycloneye]

NDG, I added our disclaimer to your post.

[srainhoutx]

Surface analysis suggest a trough across the SW Caribbean with no defined surface low. Convection is firing to the E of a very broad spin and mid level conditions have improved, but 94L still needs convection on it's western flack before any consolidation could occur and frankly, those chances do not look good at this point.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

LOOP: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Looks like some inflow, possible a new LLC, setting up into that cluster of storms.

[NDG]

NDG, I added our disclaimer to your post.

Thanks