ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: Look at the Death Ridge still firmly in place over Texas. Won't be going into the Gulf with that thing there.

Still a few days away from the Gulf at this time frame...let's see how it looks after a few more frames.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

00Z GFS= Targets Puerto Rico, man! (162 hrs)

[Ivanhater]

162 hours....Hits PR



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthDadeFish]

:uarrow: Look at the Death Ridge still firmly in place over Texas. Won't be going into the Gulf with that thing there.

Still a few days away from the Gulf at this time frame...let's see how it looks after a few more frames.

I didn't mean it won't. Just saying it will be interesting to see if it budges at all.

[lonelymike]

Luis is gonna scream when he sees this

[SouthDadeFish]

Btw the track looks pretty similar to the 12Z GFS earlier. Well at least so far.

[Ivanhater]

:uarrow: Look at the Death Ridge still firmly in place over Texas. Won't be going into the Gulf with that thing there.

Still a few days away from the Gulf at this time frame...let's see how it looks after a few more frames.

I didn't mean it won't. Just saying it will be interesting to see if it budges at all.

Yeah...through 174 hours it looks like a carbon copy of the 12z Euro

[SouthDadeFish]

Lol the 12Z Euro too. They were fairly similar. If the 00Z Euro shows the same track again, that might not be a good sign for a friends in the Lesser Antilles and PR.

[lonelymike]

Euro ran it north and into Fla if I recall someone posted earlier

[Ivanhater]

180 hours...Skirting the northern coast of Hispaniola



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like a pretty big weakness to its north on the 180 hour time frame...

[ConvergenceZone]

Keep em coming IvanH
It will be interesting to see if it maintains that direction or recruves it B4 it reaches the US mainland.
Can't wait to see further out.

[cycloneye]

[Ivanhater]

Goes NE at 204 hours

Right when the resolution falls out...so does the ridging...seems odd

[SouthDadeFish]

Well you can see the weakness at hour 180. But then again, that is hour 180. Very far out. If I were in the Lesser Antilles/PR I would be keeping a very close eye on 93L.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Well you can see the weakness at hour 180. But then again, that is hour 180. Very far out. If I were in the Lesser Antilles/PR I would be keeping a very close eye on 93L.

We are indeed!

[Ivanhater]

Well you can see the weakness at hour 180. But then again, that is hour 180. Very far out. If I were in the Lesser Antilles/PR I would be keeping a very close eye on 93L.

All ridging over the entire ATL abruptly disappears between 168 and 174 hours on this run. Odd thing around lower resolution turn over. Important thing to note is stronger ridging in the short term than it was showing before..similar to the Euro.

[SouthDadeFish]

While vorticity has been slowly decreasing with 92L, it has been slowly increasing with 93L.

http://www.canefever.com/#!at-a-glance/vstc1=vorticity

[ROCK]

that is a fat ridge....and I wouldnt discount some south of west movement in the near term as it treks across...on a side note the 0Z NOGAPS is on drugs...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[SouthDadeFish]

Well you can see the weakness at hour 180. But then again, that is hour 180. Very far out. If I were in the Lesser Antilles/PR I would be keeping a very close eye on 93L.

All ridging over the entire ATL abruptly disappears between 168 and 174 hours on this run. Odd thing around lower resolution turn over. Important thing to note is stronger ridging in the short term than it was showing before..similar to the Euro.

That is true. I wouldn't put much confidence in the GFS beyond 120 hours. I don't like how the models are trending...