ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[jinftl]

Storm surge, no.

Rip currents and rough surf, yep.

Will there be a significant storm surge or rip tide on the southern side of St Maarten or the east side (Oyster Bay)?

I guess I'll find out when I get there tomorrow but?

[storm4u]

12z gfs is wayyyy to close for comfort up here

My kind of storm.. long tracker.. lots of discussion and no harm to come of it. I've rather enjoyed Katia.. I think 20+ fatalities is enough for a month.. Here's to fish watching for the rest of the season

Cheers!

[cycloneye]

Storm surge, no.

Rip currents and rough surf, yep.

Will there be a significant storm surge or rip tide on the southern side of St Maarten or the east side (Oyster Bay)?

I guess I'll find out when I get there tomorrow but?

In PR/VI we got this issued.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1138 AM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

...SWELL FROM HURRICANE KATIA WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...

.HURRICANE KATIA LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SWELLS FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN ARRIVING TO OUR OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON
LATER THIS EVENING AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 8 FEET IN THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THOSE WATERS.

AMZ712-032345-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.SC.Y.0124.110904T1600Z-110905T1600Z/
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
1138 AM AST SAT SEP 3 2011

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON
AST MONDAY...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO
NOON AST MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SWELLS.

* WAVES: SEAS OF 7 FEET WILL BEGIN ARRIVING THIS EVENING THEN
BUILD TO NEAR 8 FEET LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 22 TO 33 KNOTS AND/OR
SEAS OF 7 FEET AND GREATER ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS... ESPECIALLY
THOSE OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS...SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

[cycloneye]

just got back... why is everyone so quiet.. ?

Recurve syndrome!

oh... well thats no fun... any recon going out ?

Nothing for Katia.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SAT 03 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION FOR 04/00Z CANCELED AT
03/1230Z. WC-130 MISSION FOR 04/00Z AND
04/06Z CANCELED AT 03/1530Z.

[jabman98]

Big difference I am seeing is they all kick Lee out to the NE much faster now. This destroys the ridge and allows Katia to make the turn. Lee is the key it seems and as long as they keep showing him moving to the NE instead of stalling then we should be OK here in NC.

Have you seen the cool loop of Lee in the Lee Discussion thread. Looks like a figure eight, where two "centers" (if you can call them that with this system) seem to be fighting with each other. Lee might not be quite what people expect by the time it gets picked up and taken NE.

I really hope NC and the NE don't get hit by Katia and then Lee on top of that. Irene was bad enough.

[jinftl]

If Katia weakens to a tropical storm again in the near term, as the NHC suggests, that could change the models if they are forecasting her to be much stronger in the coming days?

[HenkL]

SPECIAL BULLETIN NO. 1
Date: Saturday, September 03, 2011 Time: 6:00 A .M.

.A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MAARTEN, SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

Because of swells, hazardous conditions can be expected / will occur on our east_ facing shores due to large breaking waves. Other sections of our coasts could also experience locally rough seas. Swimmers and occupants of small craft have to take this into account and are urged to stay on shore to prevent personal injury or death or material damage. Some coastal flooding is also possible in a few spots and owners of coastal facilities should try to protect their possessions against destructive waves, wherever this is possible.

A Special Bulletin is issued for weather events that are unusual, cause general inconvenience or public concern (requiring the attention and action of fire department and police authorities) and cannot adequately be described in a weather forecast.

High Surf Advisory announces that onshore wave action in breakers will likely cause somewhat higher sea (today) or is already occurring.
High Surf Warning indicates that significant high onshore wave action is certain to occur or is occurring already mainly because of swells.

(source: http://www.meteo.an/SpecialBulletin_SSS.asp)

[floridasun78]

what i see nhc looking for lee to make weakness alone east coast causing katia move up into open sea all this timing of lee vs katia will feel lee weakness to high on east coast

[Aric Dunn]

does seem to be heading a little more wnw right..

[floridasun78]

does seem to be heading a little more wnw right..

you see her playing more game with models because their more east on last runs? if move wnw that could send models wrong way a bit

[T'Bonz]

Might could be that it's a long holiday weekend and people are out doing stuff, and away from their computers. It's quiet all over the 'net.

This thread has sure become quiet now that a recurve away the United States is looking likely.

I think I hear some crickets

[Aric Dunn]

does seem to be heading a little more wnw right..

you see her playing more game with models because their more east on last runs? if move wnw that could send models wrong way a bit

yeah well there is still some uncertainty because the models switched to east because they now have this shortwave picking up LEE and shooting hin NE which helps drag the shortwave far enough se to pick katia. vs the other day with the west turn the models either drove lee SW or stalled him over Arkansas which allowed ridging to build off the east coast. so if this shortwave does not pick up lee than earlier solutions will likely be the case.

[supercane]

does seem to be heading a little more wnw right..

Think that is an illusion as convection attempts to rebuild to on the south and west sides before being blown off again; while there may be wobbles, the general motion appears to me to still be to the NW. No changes to the current track philosophy appear necessary.

[clfenwi]

12Z HWRF swath



Loop

[Aric Dunn]

Seems the hwrf has shifted to the left a good deal.. and gfdl has come left too

[clfenwi]

12Z GFS at 144h; just off Cape Cod, headed to the northeast



Complete loop

[clfenwi]

12Z NOGAPS at 144h; its closest approach to land, goes straight northeast from here.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Loop

[Aric Dunn]

check out the difference in the nam synoptics from the 6z to the 12z.. it now leaves LEE behind and pushing him south back into the gulf which allows ridigng to build off the east coast. turning katia west again. vs the 6z where lee was pulled ne with the shortwave

6z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... ageSize=Me.


12z
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[hurricaneCW]

Like I said, Katia should track between Earl and Bill tracks, could give us a scare especially if Katia becomes a lot stronger.

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET; finally came off its low-riding westward solution.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.09.2011
HURRICANE KATIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 55.4W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122011

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.09.2011 19.3N 55.4W STRONG
00UTC 04.09.2011 20.2N 56.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2011 21.3N 58.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2011 22.2N 60.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2011 22.7N 61.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2011 23.5N 63.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2011 24.3N 65.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2011 25.0N 66.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2011 25.7N 68.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2011 26.4N 69.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2011 27.5N 70.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2011 28.7N 70.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2011 30.2N 70.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE