ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[canes04]

If she reamins shallow the trough could bypass her in a few days.

[Nimbus]

If she reamins shallow the trough could bypass her in a few days.

They were contemplating that scenario last night. If she remained nearly stationary under the shear from that ULL there might be time for some ridging to build in. Anything more than 48 hours as a naked swirl though and the low pressure at the surface broadens out and could become too shallow to regenerate.

[craptacular]

Over the last few hours (starting at 15:45), there has been a sudden burst of convection directly on the east side of LLC. Watch the loops, and the LLC is just sitting there waiting for the convection to catch up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has just formed to the SE of the LLC and 200mb vorticity has dropped.

She is organizing.


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

Got a very high rain-rate cell and lots of cold cloud-tops on Funktop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-ft.html

She's ramping up.

[HurrMark]

Perhaps Maria is a good candidate for the Epsilon Award for this year (for the most tenacious storm)...this thing has been on life support three or four times but doesn't seem to want to go away...

[GCANE]

Here is the latest AMSU-sounding analysis of the core-temp profile before the flare up.

Core is very compressed vertically.

This will be a good reference to see what happens in the upcoming hours.

[GCANE]

JB:

sloppy maria getting ready to intensify as low level center gets pulled into developing convection

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Thanks for keeping us updated GCane!

[GCANE]

Thanks for keeping us updated GCane!

My pleasure - let's see if she can keep it up.

[canes04]

I'm surprised the lack of attention Maria has. I find this one to rather intriguing.
Still thinking the trough may miss her.

[AJC3]

I'm surprised the lack of attention Maria has. I find this one to rather intriguing.
Still thinking the trough may miss her.

There's no chance of this happening. There's no mid level ridge left to the north of Maria, and the axis of the mid level trough that will catch her is already moving through Florida.





By Tuesday afternoon the trough is already impinging on the cyclone, with a second stronger trough to follow in another couple days.

[RL3AO]

Its going to be 33 Wednesday morning here. I'm quite sure a trough that strong isn't missing Maria.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011

MARIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A
SLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS BEEN APPARENT VERY
RECENTLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
A BURST OF NEW CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA
BUOY 41043...LOCATED ABOUT 125 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY
REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 KT WITH A GUST TO 45 KT.
THIS OBSERVATION ALONG WITH THE 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT
MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. STRONG SHEAR FROM AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MARIA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM
MODEL.

ALTHOUGH MARIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INSISTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MARIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT RECURVES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVING OFF
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT SHOWS A SLOWER
MOTION THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOT AS FAST.

THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
HAS BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON 1324 UTC ASCAT DATA THAT SHOWED A SMALL
AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IT IS
WORTH REMEMBERING THAT NHC RADII ESTIMATES REPRESENT THE MAXIMUM
EXTENT OF A PARTICULAR WIND THRESHOLD ANYWHERE WITHIN A QUADRANT.
IN THIS CASE...THE INITIAL WIND FIELD GRAPHIC IS LIKELY TO DEPICT
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS WHEN IT REALITY THEY ARE OCCURRING ONLY OVER WATER IN A
SMALL AREA WELL TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 21.0N 67.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.6N 68.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 22.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 24.8N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 34.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 45.0N 55.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

She is crawling NW.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 67.5W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[Blinhart]

I find it interesting that the newest advisory states the word "should" quite often. I think the NHC is covering all their bases by using that word. Almost sounds like they aren't sure what Maria is going to do and they can't say all the different scenarios that could be played out.

Is that how all of you other people are reading the advisory also. Or am I reading too much into it?

[AJC3]

I find it interesting that the newest advisory states the word "should" quite often. I think the NHC is covering all their bases by using that word. Almost sounds like they aren't sure what Maria is going to do and they can't say all the different scenarios that could be played out.

Is that how all of you other people are reading the advisory also. Or am I reading too much into it?

Yeah, you're reading way too much into that. As a whole, meteorologists favor using terms like that instead of absolutes/definitives given the inherent uncertainty in weather forecasts. After all, they're merely predicting the future! LOL.

[gatorcane]

Yeah, no way its going west folks. This one is headed to the FLEMISH CAP. Where the BIG fish go.

There is an outside chance of a Bermuda hit, but that looks low at this time.

[Blinhart]

Thanks, I appreciate it. I just found it odd they used the word "should" almost every sentence in one paragraph. Just seemed used it more than they normally do. I was hoping I was reading too much into it. Let's hope those 2 troughs do pick her up or it could be interesting in a few days.

[Blinhart]

Just wondering what the latest models look like. Especially the ensembles since those are the most funny to look at.