ATL: IRENE - Models

[HURRICANELONNY]

Mornin all. I see some of the models are flip flopping. That's normal this far out. Will it feel the 1st trough or not. Who knows. Trends are our friend or enemy. Before I went to bed. TWC had. Not if. But when Savanah Ga. will get hit. That's also plausible. So nobody is out of the woods yet.

[rockyman]

12z dynamic models:

[Dean4Storms]

Sure looks like the development sooner and further north in latitude made all the difference in the world with the models having Irene feel the weakness and turn more sharply into it.

I believe though this scenario could change if Irene fails to deepen much more due to either the dry air or hitting Hispaniola directly. If she were to be weakened or remains weak she could make a less dramatic NW turn and still end up in the SE GOM!

[hurricanedude]

Could JB be right? he said a week ago that this storm would hit the Carolinas...if the trend continues, he could be right

[NDG]

A closer look at the 12z early tropical models:

They are starting to gather on the east coast of FL or just offshore. One negative thing to this that it will spend more time over water and gather more strength before entually moving onshore whether is in central or NE FL or points north towards GA or the Carolinas.



The 12z TVCN just barely moved to the right, it has moved from landfall near Homestead to Miami Beach from its previous run, so I expect the NHC to not move much its track on their next advisory.

[rockyman]

There's a clear consensus (at the moment) that Irene will head across Hispaniola and toward the Florida Peninsula...and it will be on a west of north heading when it arrives in Florida (meaning a CONUS miss is highly unlikely)

[GTStorm]

Sure looks like the development sooner and further north in latitude made all the difference in the world with the models having Irene feel the weakness and turn more sharply into it.

I believe though this scenario could change if Irene fails to deepen much more due to either the dry air or hitting Hispaniola directly. If she were to be weakened or remains weak she could make a less dramatic NW turn and still end up in the SE GOM!

This is reminding me a lot of Floyd in 1999, without the CAT 5 factored in. Track trending and forecasting is very similar, though.

I'd be real concerned if I lived in Wilmington NC (AKA "the Chin") right now.

[Aric Dunn]

The best solution so far and has been the most consistent is the euro. it turns irene NNW into the weakness but no recurve out to sea or the carolina because there is no digging trough just the weakness and the ridge to the east and west.

[Dean4Storms]

Stop copying images on every reply and no one is attacking anyone.

Yes KORY did, he called him a Troller for stating his opinion.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I have to disagree,

I would not normally reply to something like that, but it did appear he was or should have used a different term in his reply it it was not intended to be.

[UpTheCreek]

Could JB be right? he said a week ago that this storm would hit the Carolinas...if the trend continues, he could be right

Did JB say that? Phew, now I'm a bit relieved!

[hurricanedude]

Hey Aric you dont think the Carolinas are at play?

[NDG]

The best solution so far and has been the most consistent is the euro. it turn irene NWW into the weakness but no recurve out to sea or the carolina because there is no digging trough just the weakness and the ridge to the east and west.

No doubt about it, but I am fairly impressed with the GFS for the last 24 hrs or so, it has been keeping up with the Euro.
Are we finally seeing the "better" improved GFS finally?

[hurricanedude]

LOL i wouldnt be to Relieved....this thing could be a big deal from Fl north to Chesapeake Bay

[Aric Dunn]

Hey Aric you dont think the Carolinas are at play?

not as of right now. nothing to turn it NNE. but it could change.

[hurricanedude]

some of the models, actually quite a few take it to SC

[WeatherEmperor]

Hey Aric you dont think the Carolinas are at play?

not as of right now. nothing to turn it NNE. but it could change.

Aric,

Just woke up and saw the models. I was hoping they would shift totally further east but they didn't really. Are you sure you don't see anything that could pull Irene more NE away from FL? If the models stay clustered pretty close to FL by the end of the day, I will get really worried

[TBCaneFreak]

Stop copying images on every reply and no one is attacking anyone.

Yes KORY did, he called him a Troller for stating his opinion.

No issue..moving on...
BTW Artic I think your spot on, and that was my point...were not talking about a trof, were talking about finding the edge of the ridge...so there should be a sweeping right turn, not a stop, look both ways and hard right....

[Kory]

Hey Aric you dont think the Carolinas are at play?

not as of right now. nothing to turn it NNE. but it could change.

What do you think about a turn just to the east of Florida and due north into SC? I certainly think that's plausible.

[plasticup]

The 06z GFS solution pretty much destroys Savannah. That city is really vulnerable and wouldn't survive a Cat3+ hit.