ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[BigB0882]

Just began raining hard here in BTR again, havent looked at radar so not sure if this is convection rebuilding or just a small downpour that wont last long.

[Kennethb]

So far just shy of 6 inches of rain here in South Baton Rouge.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KNHC 031609
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 32 20110903
160000 2900N 09009W 8441 01486 //// +175 //// 183031 032 033 002 01
160030 2900N 09008W 8428 01501 //// +178 //// 185032 033 027 000 05
160100 2900N 09006W 8430 01498 //// +177 //// 187033 034 028 000 05
160130 2900N 09004W 8429 01500 //// +181 //// 185032 032 028 000 01
160200 2900N 09002W 8428 01503 //// +180 //// 184032 032 028 000 05
160230 2900N 09000W 8426 01508 //// +180 //// 185030 031 /// /// 05
160300 2858N 09000W 8432 01499 //// +180 //// 185028 029 030 000 05
160330 2857N 09000W 8430 01500 //// +181 //// 186027 028 031 000 05
160400 2855N 09000W 8430 01501 //// +185 //// 186028 028 030 000 01
160430 2854N 09000W 8429 01502 //// +183 //// 189029 029 030 000 01
160500 2853N 09000W 8432 01499 //// +182 //// 190029 029 029 000 01
160530 2851N 09000W 8430 01499 //// +181 //// 188028 029 029 001 01
160600 2850N 09000W 8430 01501 //// +180 //// 192027 028 029 000 05
160630 2848N 09000W 8429 01502 //// +180 //// 189028 028 028 000 01
160700 2847N 09000W 8429 01502 //// +180 //// 190025 026 028 000 01
160730 2845N 09000W 8429 01501 //// +178 //// 192025 025 029 000 01
160800 2844N 09000W 8432 01501 //// +180 //// 194026 027 028 000 01
160830 2842N 09000W 8429 01505 //// +180 //// 192027 027 028 000 01
160900 2841N 09000W 8429 01504 //// +183 //// 198026 027 029 000 01
160930 2840N 09000W 8429 01501 //// +180 //// 201026 027 029 000 01


Someone else can take over

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Hybrid Subtropical looking

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I also clearly see both circulations. Weird!

More of a hybrid Subtropical system than truly tropical.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Looks more subtropical to me..

To me also looks that way.Here is the shortwave saved loop.

Without a doubt. This just isnt a truly tropical system to me. My Opinion.

[underthwx]

From 10:30a.m. Hou/Galv. update...


FROM A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM RUN
WHICH SHOWS IT COMING IN WETTER FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT...IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. 38


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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[ConvergenceZone]

Yep, I knew last night this wouldn't have a chance of becomming a hurricane. It's ran out of time pretty much.....

[Ixolib]

This 12z NAM "projected radar" loop clearly shows the system splitting, with a lot of the convection moving northeast, and a piece of energy breaking off and moving back out into the Gulf.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... ELoop.html

Has this "splitting effect" ever happened before, and if so, does anyone have any history to offer?????

[jabman98]

That "figure eight" loop is really cool. Never seen anything quite like that.

It has been very dry, with a north wind and occasional strong gusts here in Houston this morning. I'm guessing that's from Lee? It was totally clear for most of the morning. Now there are a few white, puffy clouds. Still breezy. Lee is giving us greatly increased fire danger with the dry air and increased north winds.

[Dave]

Got it Henk, go ahead and take off....thanks!

[Dave]

958
URNT15 KNHC 031620
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 33 20110903
161000 2838N 09000W 8429 01502 //// +180 //// 198026 027 029 000 01
161030 2837N 09000W 8429 01505 //// +176 //// 196026 027 029 000 01
161100 2835N 09000W 8430 01504 //// +178 //// 198027 027 027 000 01
161130 2834N 09000W 8431 01503 //// +178 //// 196026 027 028 000 01
161200 2832N 09000W 8432 01503 //// +175 //// 200026 026 026 000 05
161230 2831N 09000W 8430 01502 //// +175 //// 203026 027 026 000 01
161300 2829N 09000W 8429 01505 //// +173 //// 204027 027 027 000 05
161330 2828N 09000W 8429 01503 //// +174 //// 203027 027 026 000 01
161400 2827N 09000W 8429 01505 //// +171 //// 203027 027 024 000 01
161430 2825N 09000W 8430 01504 //// +174 //// 203026 027 024 000 01
161500 2824N 09000W 8430 01506 //// +175 //// 208025 026 023 000 05
161530 2822N 09000W 8428 01506 //// +173 //// 213026 027 026 000 01
161600 2821N 09000W 8432 01502 //// +171 //// 217026 026 027 000 01
161630 2819N 09000W 8429 01506 //// +173 //// 219026 026 029 000 01
161700 2818N 09000W 8430 01504 //// +174 //// 214028 028 031 001 01
161730 2816N 09000W 8429 01505 //// +163 //// 217030 031 032 002 01
161800 2815N 09000W 8425 01512 //// +175 //// 217030 031 027 000 01
161830 2813N 09000W 8433 01504 //// +177 //// 217030 031 027 000 01
161900 2812N 09000W 8429 01508 //// +180 //// 216030 031 025 000 01
161930 2810N 09000W 8436 01501 //// +176 //// 215030 030 026 000 01
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Yep, I knew last night this wouldn't have a chance of becomming a hurricane. It's ran out of time pretty much.....

If it has been in the Central GOM,it would be another story for sure.

[tropicwatch]

First good rain band entering the Panama City area and it looks like this one will last a long time.

Tropicwatch

[RL3AO]

We see a storm go from subtropical to tropical often, but has nhc ever "downgraded' a storm from tropical to subtropical?

[wxman57]

Lee appears to be behaving pretty much as forecast. It was expected to be stalled near the mid LA coast today. As that trof/front dig southward on Sunday, Lee will be picked up and accelerated off to the northeast. No significant wind inland, just offshore. Lots of rain, though. Wish we could see some rain...

[Dave]

158
URNT15 KNHC 031630
AF307 0513A LEE HDOB 34 20110903
162000 2809N 09000W 8429 01507 //// +179 //// 216030 031 025 000 01
162030 2807N 09000W 8430 01507 //// +180 //// 216030 031 024 000 01
162100 2806N 09000W 8429 01510 //// +179 //// 220031 031 023 000 05
162130 2804N 09000W 8430 01509 //// +183 //// 222031 032 022 000 01
162200 2803N 09000W 8430 01507 //// +180 //// 221032 032 023 000 01
162230 2801N 09000W 8430 01508 //// +180 //// 220031 032 024 000 05
162300 2800N 09000W 8432 01509 //// +180 //// 221031 032 026 000 01
162330 2759N 09000W 8430 01510 //// +180 //// 221030 031 027 000 01
162400 2757N 09000W 8428 01512 //// +180 //// 225031 031 028 001 01
162430 2756N 09000W 8430 01513 //// +176 //// 225029 031 031 001 05
162500 2754N 09001W 8423 01517 //// +177 //// 226026 027 032 001 01
162530 2753N 09002W 8428 01511 //// +174 //// 212024 024 034 006 05
162600 2752N 09003W 8432 01510 //// +179 //// 215025 025 032 002 01
162630 2751N 09004W 8428 01513 //// +184 //// 217026 027 029 001 01
162700 2750N 09005W 8431 01512 //// +186 //// 222029 031 030 000 05
162730 2749N 09006W 8429 01510 //// +184 //// 224030 031 031 001 01
162800 2747N 09006W 8433 01507 //// +186 //// 225028 028 032 000 05
162830 2746N 09007W 8429 01511 //// +188 //// 227030 031 030 000 01
162900 2745N 09008W 8428 01514 //// +184 //// 230029 030 030 000 01
162930 2743N 09008W 8430 01511 //// +184 //// 229030 030 028 000 01
$$
;

[wxman57]

We see a storm go from subtropical to tropical often, but has nhc ever "downgraded' a storm from tropical to subtropical?

Don't think so. They go from tropical to extratropical. I suppose Lee is more of a subtropical storm now, though.

[MBryant]

Looks more subtropical to me..

To me also looks that way.Here is the shortwave saved loop.

http://i.imgur.com/3etPc.gif

Without a doubt. This just isnt a truly tropical system to me. My Opinion.

Tropical or sub tropical, just bring on the wet and a little westerly movement would be nice.

[tailgater]

Pressure at 997 in Lafayette, radar starting to fill in nicely with rain bands. You definitely know there's a tropical system outside with a fine but dense rain blowing around and rapidly moving low level clouds in the sky. Will be very interesting to watch Lee through the day as this may not be a cut and dry "north" forecast. Maybe we'll see some loops after all .

Could you give us a link to a good radar site out of Lafayette. thanks in advance BTW, sun actually peeked out for a short time. Some of my friends have been without power since 3am this morning.