ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#241 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:02 am

93L looking good....as its stealing some of the energy from 92....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#242 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:06 am

yeah 180hr is a little to far out on the GFS for me......though the EURO tonight will be WAYYYYYY interesting....I am off tomorrow so I am making a EURO night.....2nd one since Don....fun times! :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#243 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:12 am

ROCK wrote:yeah 180hr is a little to far out on the GFS for me......though the EURO tonight will be WAYYYYYY interesting....I am off tomorrow so I am making a EURO night.....2nd one since Don....fun times! :D


I agree about the interesting part, although I'm still debating if I should stay up for it :P
0 likes   
Top
Adoquín
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:47 pm

#244 Postby Adoquín » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:13 am

Hola everyone, I guess we better fasten our seat belts, it is going to be a really wild time next week in the neighborhood...Very concerned about the suggested intensity at the time the model shows a direct on the main island of Puerto Rico and Northern DR coast. What is the pressure suggested at the time of the potential Puerto Rico landfall at 162 hours?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

Re:

#245 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:21 am

Adoquín wrote:Hola everyone, I guess we better fasten our seat belts, it is going to be a really wild time next week in the neighborhood...Very concerned about the suggested intensity at the time the model shows a direct on the main island of Puerto Rico and Northern DR coast. What is the pressure suggested at the time of the potential Puerto Rico landfall at 162 hours?

Well the global models don't have the greatest resolution. The SHIPS guidance suggests it will be a hurricane and possibly even a major hurricane by the time it reaches PR. That doesn't mean it will be one though. Shoot it may not even develop. There is still plenty of time to watch it and see what happens, but yes I can't deny the possibility of a major hurricane near Puerto Rico in 168 hours.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Fego
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 767
Age: 65
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Contact:
Contact Fego

Re:

#246 Postby Fego » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:25 am

Adoquín wrote:Hola everyone, I guess we better fasten our seat belts, it is going to be a really wild time next week in the neighborhood...Very concerned about the suggested intensity at the time the model shows a direct on the main island of Puerto Rico and Northern DR coast. What is the pressure suggested at the time of the potential Puerto Rico landfall at 162 hours?

Hola Adoquín. May be 100 mph, cat 3. But as you may already know, this is just a model run. We should be looking for trends.
0 likes   
Go Giants! Go Niners! Go Warriors!
Top
User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: Re:

#247 Postby SoupBone » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:27 am

Ivanhater wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote::uarrow: Look at the Death Ridge still firmly in place over Texas. Won't be going into the Gulf with that thing there.


Still a few days away from the Gulf at this time frame...let's see how it looks after a few more frames.



Could say the same about the ridge out in the Atlantic too though. That pendulum swings both ways. :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#248 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:30 am

I think the ridge over Texas has been more consistent than the ATL ridge though 8-)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#249 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:38 am

Remains at 40%

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#250 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:40 am

EURO runs in 20 minutes.....tick tock....oh the suspense... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#251 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:47 am

ROCK wrote:EURO runs in 20 minutes.....tick tock....oh the suspense... :lol:


Really? RaleighWx says 3:20am. You would know though :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneMaster_PR
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 795
Joined: Tue Jul 22, 2003 6:23 pm
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#252 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:49 am

Latest TAFB Surface Forecast (72 hrs)

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#253 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 12:57 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
ROCK wrote:EURO runs in 20 minutes.....tick tock....oh the suspense... :lol:


Really? RaleighWx says 3:20am. You would know though :D




it starts at 1am CST take forever to complete though....stayed up this late....whats another hour... :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#254 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:02 am

and so it begins

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP000.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP024.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#255 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:04 am

Not showing much through 48 hours...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#256 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:06 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Not showing much through 48 hours...


nope...shows 92 and 93 hanging with each other..TWs at this point....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricaneman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7349
Age: 44
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
Location: central florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#257 Postby Hurricaneman » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:09 am

It kind of hard to buy what the Euro is selling here in this run so far
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#258 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:16 am

Looks like something is trying to spin up at hour 72. Big ridge over the ATL...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

#259 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:18 am

Still nothing through 96 hours.... Hmmm....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Models

#260 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 12, 2011 1:39 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

120 carib bound


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP144.gif
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2011”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 82 guests