ATL: IRENE - Models

[KWT]

12Z ECM loop..notice the abrupt turn NNW at the very end...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Hispaniola is the game changed, system moving at 280 roughly, then system decays somewhat ovber Hispaniola and refocuses further SW...aka Gustav from 2008...

Still a ways out regarding the 'death ridge' but early signs are indeed that it weakens, if only for a short while between day 7 and 10...

[Aric Dunn]

Well I suppose you could argue there has been a slight westward shift overall, with the ECM still swinging all ove rthe place from run to run.

First 5 days there is broadly good agreement on a W/WNW track into Hispaniola with it developing to a greater or lesser extent in the E.Caribbean.

Beyond that and some real uncertainty...12z ECM brings a new solution into play BUT its one that has been heavily hinted at by the GFS ensembles recently.

Also this solution "at the end of run" beyond 5 days ( which is what you mean by the Euro swinging ) was what both the GFS and euro were doing on monday. its not actually new.

[Vortex]

Here's the extended canadian:

South of Cuba than turns it NNW into FL....


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

[Ivanhater]

If anyone has the past few Euro runs, if you could post a list like the GFS to check consistency that would be awesome.

[Vortex]

all the models appear keen on turning the storm NNW beteen 79-82 West where that takes place will be critical......IMO, i dont see this missing the US...

[KWT]

Also this solution "at the end of run" beyond 5 days ( which is what you mean by the Euro swinging ) was what both the GFS and euro were doing on monday. its not actually new.

Yeah to be fair *new* probably isn;'t the right idea because there have been times when the models have suggested it.

given the models have overall been more prone to shifting westwards then eastwards thus far this year, the ECM solution is certainly going to get my attention.

Who knows, may yet not get as far north as progged by some models and miss Hispaniola completely?

[HurricaneWarning92]

all the models appear keen on turning the storm NNW beteen 79-82 West where that takes place will be critical......IMO, i dont see this missing the US...

yeah.. and we are located at around 80W...

[Aric Dunn]

If anyone has the past few Euro runs, if you could post a list like the GFS to check consistency that would be awesome.

yeah that would be nice... I only remember because I made a image based on the early runs of both the GFS and Euro when they had it clipping Hispaniola like this and heading into the Gulf after.

[KWT]

all the models appear keen on turning the storm NNW beteen 79-82 West where that takes place will be critical......IMO, i dont see this missing the US...

The only way it misses the US is it ends up missing to the south and decides to take a Caribbean cruise towards the Yucatan and eventually into Mexico...I don't think that is all that likely given the models are getting increasingly keen on opening up a slight weakness along the gulf states and Florida.

[Blown Away]

[northjaxpro]

all the models appear keen on turning the storm NNW beteen 79-82 West where that takes place will be critical......IMO, i dont see this missing the US...

The only way it misses the US is it ends up missing to the south and decides to take a Caribbean cruise towards the Yucatan and eventually into Mexico...I don't think that is all that likely given the models are getting increasingly keen on opening up a slight weakness along the gulf states and Florida.

Yeah, I think the probabilities of this being a Caribbean cruiser into CA are very low at this point. Apparently, there will be enough of a weakness somewhere along the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley to SEUS to get whatever becomes of this tropical system to move pole-ward. Like Vortex said, it is just a question how far west the tropical system will get before making the turn into the weakness around this time next week.

Hence, the situation with the TX death ridge. How much that ridge weakens ,if it ever finally does happen come this time next week, will really have a bearing on how this system will track.

[caneseddy]

If anyone has the past few Euro runs, if you could post a list like the GFS to check consistency that would be awesome.

8/15 12z: 8/25 Bahamas
8/16 00z: 8/26 -Eastern Bahamas
8/16 12z: system dies over Hispaniola
8/17 00z: 8/28-intense hurricane off of SC/GA border
8/17 12z: shredded over Hispaniola and heads into NW Caribbean as a weak low
8/18 00z: 8/26-off of East coast of Florida and 8/27 landfall in SC
8/18 12z: 8/28: intense hurricane in the Central Gulf after going over Hispaniola

[BatzVI]

Those are too close....way, too close....

[caneseddy]

The GFS barely has it making landfall over the islands....and it initialized it too south....hmmm...think maybe the GFS will flip north again at 18z

[BigB0882]

I am still not focusing on landfall but the consistency is amazing. If this doesn't make a US landfall then I will be shocked but stranger things have happened. Of course, with our track record this year, this may not even form.

The one thing of worry for my location is that there is a VERY small difference between a West Florida hit and a central LA landfall. The ridging to the East may be stronger, this may take a more southerly track or be weaker and make the turn later, etc. When you are this far out, the smallest changes can lead to a fairly wide swing in landfall locations. I hope everyone is watching, even the TX coast because you just never know. I do feel FL Panhandle is at the highest risk, JUST MY OPINION.

[cycloneye]

I am still not focusing on landfall but the consistency is amazing. If this doesn't make a US landfall then I will be shocked but stranger things have happened. Of course, with our track record this year, this may not even form.

The one thing of worry for my location is that there is a VERY small difference between a West Florida hit and a central LA landfall. The ridging to the East may be stronger, this may take a more southerly track or be weaker and make the turn later, etc. When you are this far out, the smallest changes can lead to a fairly wide swing in landfall locations. I hope everyone is watching, even the TX coast because you just never know. I do feel FL Panhandle is at the highest risk, JUST MY OPINION.

It would be a horrific failure of the models if this doesn't develop.

[Hurricaneman]

I am still not focusing on landfall but the consistency is amazing. If this doesn't make a US landfall then I will be shocked but stranger things have happened. Of course, with our track record this year, this may not even form.

The one thing of worry for my location is that there is a VERY small difference between a West Florida hit and a central LA landfall. The ridging to the East may be stronger, this may take a more southerly track or be weaker and make the turn later, etc. When you are this far out, the smallest changes can lead to a fairly wide swing in landfall locations. I hope everyone is watching, even the TX coast because you just never know. I do feel FL Panhandle is at the highest risk, JUST MY OPINION.

It would be a horrific failure of the models if this doesn't develop.

The thing is I've suich epic model failure before, anybody remember Fiona last year. I personally think this will develop as the models indicate and anywhere from New Orleans to Cape Hatteras should monitor this as it progresses

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[Big O]

I, for one, do not wish this ( or anything for that matter ) on anyone, but are my eye decieving me? Is that High Pressure Ridge of Death retreating? For that ( and three LONG months worth), I am happy. Sorry to be selfish..

No, it's not retreating yet, but the Euro is forecasting it to move west next week. Of course, the models have been forecasting that ridge to move west (in the 10 day forecast) for the past month.

If the ridge does not retreat west, wouldn't there be less of a weakness over the central GOM as the high off the east coast and the death ridge would hook up in a banana ridge configuration?

[HURRICANELONNY]

Couldn't agree more. Models mean nothing until there is a name.

[djmikey]

Could SETX be at play here? I see how that ridge sure moved out of the way towards the west!