WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm (14W/Mina)

[StormingB81]

eye is closing up now

[dexterlabio]

^105kts might to too generous but I believe it's going there. I think intensity ranges from 85-95kts...a very amateur guess

...well who knows if Irene made it to Cat3 even though the eye sometimes clears out and sometimes fills in, why not this.

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[StormingB81]

Oh I think this will go well beyong a cat 3....that my opinion though..

[euro6208]

i could imagine how strong the waves are occuring in eastern luzon, they must be gigantic!

my neighbor who is from the philippines just left yesterday. it must be a scary experience sitting in that plane with all that turbulance from nanmadol...

[Chacor]

Nope. Never, ever, ever look at the CHIPS ensembles, they're really worthless.

[euro6208]

Nope. Never, ever, ever look at the CHIPS ensembles, they're really worthless.

the same thing happen with muifa, chips has her reaching category 5 strength and she did and now nanmadol so let's see if they got this right again..let's all be patience

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 25/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N16°30'(16.5°)
E124°30'(124.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 26/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°00'(18.0°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 460km(250NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°30'(21.5°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 560km(300NM)

[ejeraldmc]

I wonder why it's still moving west. Do you think it will not move north anymore but hit land in several hours?

[RobWESTPACWX]

..

[RobWESTPACWX]

still forecasting a rapid increase in strength, 150 knots?

On the flip side of that look at how weak NGPS keeps it

[Chacor]

It should be blindingly obvious that CHIPS is not reliable. Going from 150kt to 70kt in 24 hours is a big hint...

[Infdidoll]

I wonder why it's still moving west. Do you think it will not move north anymore but hit land in several hours?

In the time I've been tracking typhoons, I've often wondered the same thing, "Is THIS the time they got it wrong?!" but remarkably, the forecasters are usually right within a certain margin of error. Hopefully it will make a sharper turn soon. I'd be sweating bullets on the Philippine coast, though!

[Typhoon Hunter]

It should be blindingly obvious that CHIPS is not reliable. Going from 150kt to 70kt in 24 hours is a big hint...

Yes CHIPS takes every storm to 150kts and agree is not worth even paying any attention to. CHIPS will be right by chance 2 or 3 times a year just like a stopped clock is right twice a day!

[ejeraldmc]

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=5 ... 9536930397

Nanmadol's radar image from PAGASA. Lol PAGASA on Facebook...

[dexterlabio]

Actually I consider the little north of west motion right now to be a good indicator as it could signal Nanmadol beginning to move around the ridge or feel some weakness to its north. Though it is crucial to know if until when this storm will continue being stubborn and follow a more poleward projected track.

AFAIK there was only one instance in my life being a weather observer that a handful of models and forecasting agencies had their track for a certain typhoon wrong and had to adjust their forecast lines significantly from time to time...that was during TY Fengshen in 2008.

[ejeraldmc]

Still moving west closer to land!

[Chacor]

It's not going to make landfall on Luzon, relax.

Latest JTWC is only at 90 kt, which seems fair as the storm doesn't yet have a look typical of an RI-ing system:

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 16.6N 124.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 124.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.4N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.6N 123.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.0N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.8N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 124.5E.
TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA_AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE THAT HAS SLIGHTLY FILLED BUT STILL
WELL-DEFINED. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEEPENED AS THE SYSTEM
BECAME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL. A 25/0957Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE WITH A STRONG DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND ALMOST
COMPLETELY SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 14W IS DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH NEAR
TAIWAN AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE RIDGE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE DATELINE
NORTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS AS IT TRACES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL RATE DUE TO
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD - LOW VWS, WARM
SST'S, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK
MORE TO THE RIGHT AS IT BEGINS DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI)
WITH AN INTENSIFYING SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY NAMADOL WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT ROUNDS THE STEERING STR. THIS TURN WILL BE AMPLIFIED DUE TO
THE DCI DESCRIBED IN PARA 3.B. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE LEFT
OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AFTER TAU
12 TO OFFSET EGRR'S UNLIKELY WESTWARD DEVIATION, THEN A BIT MORE TO
THE RIGHT AFTER TAU 48 IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DCI. //

[Chacor]

Latest track has it missing Okinawa to the south by about 180 km, but should be enough to put the island into the gale-force winds.

[RobWESTPACWX]

On the DSCN of CHIPS; Who produces that model anyhow?

[ejeraldmc]

The convection seemed to blow up.