ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#241 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:41 pm

18z early cycle guidance. TVCC bending northwest at the end

#242 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:47 pm

Thinking about that TWO in terms of development timeframe, if this spends a bit longer time without being upgraded,it will be a problem down the road for many people.

#243 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:50 pm

As expected the parade of trofs continues. Very hard for any cv storm to make the trek all the way across with no significant ridge to drive these storms westward.

#244 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:58 pm

18Z HWRF turns NW before the Leewards. Shift right continues.
Guess we need a storm below 5N Near the equator to prevent a recurve :lol:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfdl.html

rainstorm · #245 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 6:59 pm

SFLcane wrote:As expected the parade of trofs continues. Very hard for any cv storm to make the trek all the way across with no significant ridge to drive these storms westward.

yea, the models show fantsy ridges that evaporate. i sure hope next season this 3 year pattern reverses.

#246 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:01 pm

18z GFDL is almost the same as 12z,landfall in PR. Waiting for the intensity graphic.

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 95L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 5

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.1 31.3 280./13.0

6 9.4 31.5 316./ 3.0

12 9.6 31.8 311./ 3.3

18 10.0 32.8 294./11.1

24 10.6 34.3 289./15.3

30 11.1 36.5 283./22.6

36 11.6 39.2 281./26.4

42 11.9 41.9 276./26.7

48 12.1 44.5 276./25.8

54 12.6 47.1 280./26.2

60 13.0 49.6 279./24.1

66 13.4 51.9 280./22.9

72 13.7 54.3 278./23.1

78 13.9 56.3 276./19.8

84 14.1 58.0 277./17.1

90 14.6 59.3 291./13.2

96 15.4 61.0 293./18.3

102 16.0 62.5 293./14.8

108 16.7 64.0 295./16.2

114 17.5 65.3 301./15.5

120 18.7 66.5 317./16.6

126 19.5 67.8 302./14.1

rainstorm · #247 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:01 pm

interesting that the hwrf which usually over develops everything only has it at 1005 mb.

HurricaneMaster_PR · #248 Postby **HurricaneMaster_PR** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:18z GFDL is almost the same as 12z,landfall in PR. Waiting for the intensity graphic.

992mb over PR

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

#249 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:06 pm

8 PM TWD Special Feature. Hey peeps,the thread has turned dead, let's turn it active as I am feeling alone posting.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR
9N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-36W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 29W-34W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR A UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ConvergenceZone · #250 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:07 pm

If that model is correct, so much for that bogus info that the NHC said a couple of days ago regarding a pattern change so that any storm forming during the next 7 to 10 days would continue westward and NOT recurve out to sea like they've been doing... I guess they didn't know what they were talking about....

rainstorm · #251 Postby **rainstorm** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:11 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:If that model is correct, so much for that bogus info that the NHC said a couple of days ago regarding a pattern change so that any storm forming during the next 7 to 10 days would continue westward and NOT recurve out to sea like they've been doing... I guess they didn't know what they were talking about....

the models did show a stronger ridge when they said it but this trough has been in the same place for 3 years along with the texas high. but, its just one model run, it can change.

#252 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:13 pm

Let down probably by the slowdown in development.

#253 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:13 pm

05/2345 UTC 10.3N 31.2W T1.5/1.5 95L

#254 Postby **expat2carib** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:17 pm

I'm with you Luis!

This is going to be this seasons big one. No doubt in my mind.

cycloneye wrote:8 PM TWD Special Feature. Hey peeps,the thread has turned dead, let's turn it active as I am feeling alone posting.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR
9N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-36W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 29W-34W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR A UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

#255 Postby **janswizard** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:21 pm

I think this may be too far out for many to be concerned right now. People are still recovering from Irene and Lee, I think they need a couple days rest. It's also the end of a long holiday weekend.

cpdaman · #256 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:27 pm

based on nothing other than a poor guess i see this slow to develop ......aiming toward jamaica then curvin up thru cuba..

caneseddy · #257 Postby **caneseddy** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:28 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:If that model is correct, so much for that bogus info that the NHC said a couple of days ago regarding a pattern change so that any storm forming during the next 7 to 10 days would continue westward and NOT recurve out to sea like they've been doing... I guess they didn't know what they were talking about....

To be fair, as rainstorm stated, when the NHC stated that particular pattern change, the models were showing the ridge preventing any recurves...they go by what the models show and I don't think it is fair or correct to state that the NHC was giving the public bogus info or that they don't know what they are talking about....they are usually right on point most of the time...ok..back to the topic

Let's see what the next runs show....IMO, it's going to be until end of this week until we know for sure....right now models are guessing and are not that reliable this far out yet...we all know the GFS likes to turn storms too quickly...remember the GFS had Katia curving east of Bermuda on its first runs....while it still did recurve, it did it west of Bermuda

Kory · #258 Postby **Kory** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:33 pm

Invest 95 seems like its at an awfully low latitude and moving slow...will will it turn more WNW; we will have to wait and see.

cpdaman · #259 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:33 pm

ya for s fl the big ones 4s 5s occur in aug and sept. oct is usually caribean hits with max intensity wilma like....awful but not catostrophic

caneseddy · #260 Postby **caneseddy** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 7:33 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Let down probably by the slowdown in development.

Also with all the models showing recurve before the CONUS

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