ATL: IRENE - Models

[gatorcane]

Wow Ivan -- imagined if it missed the United States all together? Would that not be something??

[bucman1]

What time does the GFDL run as it had Irene off the SW florida Coast this morning? Also why is NHC still showing nw path, if models say otherwise?

[ronjon]

Remember, this is just one run of a model that has been "fairly" consistent in developing a SE US hurricane for the last week or so. But, solutions have ranged from Texas to the Carolinas, with most through the spine of Florida. I don't foresee a recurve as others have posted, but not certain where it begins that NW move. The GFS ensembles with each run have generally been west of the actual GFS output.

Good point, Josh. Until the GFDL comes east and we get solid model consensus its still uncertain. I see the NHC didn't nudge their track east at all at 11 am. Still really uncertain what happens when it tangles up with the mountains of Hispaniola as to where the center emerges and of course at what strength.

[artist]

Misses the entire east coast through 144 hours...maybe brushing the outer banks

and the Canadian's accuracy so far this year, is it good? I don't know why I am even asking. lol I know it will probably all change again before we know it!

[vacanechaser]

There have been dynamical models that develop this in to a high end major hurricane. The Track is Now East of flordia just 24 hours after it was projected to be in the gulf. If it ends up not recurving and heading for east coast of Flordia, ,What will be the Strength?

no one can say for sure of the strength.. there are a couple of factors... one being if it goes over hispanolia... if it stays north of the island.. this could be a much stronger storm of course than if it went over the island... the thing is, in the gfs model, it is showing in the upper levels this thing continuing to develop and maintain a upper level ridge above it.. that would favor favorable conditions and possibly intensifying or maintaining a stronger status.. we will just have to see where it traks later today.. right now to me, it looks like it gonna pass over or just north of PR. ..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Aric Dunn]

ok forget the cmc.. its was the western outlier yesterday now is the eastern.. lol

[HurricaneWarning92]

Looking at the latest GFS run, a tad delay of the turn to the north around Andros Island, and it would come ashore South Florida. There is still many ifs up in the air.

That is exactly what I am worried about. It looks like it will come close enough to the east coast of FL that any deviation to the west by as little as 15-20 miles could make a difference as to how hard we could potentially get hit. I am sure you agree with me on this, it should come close enough to cause concern in south florida.

Yes, I agree with you. Also, the weakness may not be as strong, and that would cause the storm to move WNW or NW (towards Florida) instead of NNW/N (just east of Florida). There is still a lot of factors out there.

[linkerweather]

Remember, this is just one run of a model that has been "fairly" consistent in developing a SE US hurricane for the last week or so. But, solutions have ranged from Texas to the Carolinas, with most through the spine of Florida. I don't foresee a recurve as others have posted, but not certain where it begins that NW move. The GFS ensembles with each run have generally been west of the actual GFS output.

Good point, Josh. Until the GFDL comes east and we get solid model consensus its still uncertain. I see the NHC didn't nudge their track east at all at 11 am. Still really uncertain what happens when it tangles up with the mountains of Hispaniola as to where the center emerges and of course at what strength.

If anything, the NHC pushed the 120 hour position farther NW into Central Florida from the 5 am advisory. I will wait to see what the 12 z GFS ensembles indicate.

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS Ensemble mean is also further east missing Florida and hitting the Carolinas

[tolakram]

Saved Image, GFS 135H, Carolinas

[gatorcane]

So GFS ensembles, CMC, GFS..all shifted east of Florida...trend is good for Florida right now.........

If the ECMWF shifts east as well, i would think a pretty good shift in the NHC cone to the east at 5pmEST.

But a much strong hurricane, could be more a Carolina threat.

[vacanechaser]

So GFS ensembles, CMC, GFS..all shifted east of Florida...trend is good for Florida right now.........

yep and bad for the carolinas... i just remember what joe has always said, the trend is your friend...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fox13weather]

Wow Ivan -- imagined if it missed the United States all together? Would that not be something??

There is as much of a chance of it missing the united states as there is of it making landfall. The east coast trough forecasted to be along the east coast later in the week looks strong enough to turn Irene northeast away from Florida.

[Bocadude85]

Didnt something similar happen with hurricane Frances? I recall the models bouncing back and forth between Florida and the Carolinas. I am not saying this will be the case or that the sypnotics are similar.

[gatorcane]

Wow Ivan -- imagined if it missed the United States all together? Would that not be something??

There is as much of a chance of it missing the united states as there is of it making landfall. The east coast trough forecasted to be along the east coast later in the week looks strong enough to turn Irene northeast away from Florida.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yep, I agree, the trough is going to be strong. The fact the center reformed farther north really may be a blessing in the end for Florida since now its turn *should* happen east of Florida ---- ala Floyd.

[Derecho]

What time does the GFDL run as it had Irene off the SW florida Coast this morning? Also why is NHC still showing nw path, if models say otherwise?

1) The GFDL is typically out at 1:30PM Eastern. Keep in mind that the GFDL is based on the GFS (that is, the "world" of the GFDL is the GFS world; the GFDL is modeling the core of the tropical system itself) so the GFDL will often change along with GFS runs.

2) All of these models with a drastic north shift (latest CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS so far) came out AFTER the last NHC track forecast was made.

Accurate modeling depends on good data. Keep in mind that any troughs that would turn Irene north as depicted in the models are likely just now entering Western North America where there is good data from upper air balloons, etc.; the Pacific has very little data. So it's not unusual for a model move to take place at about this time, and it's usually a shift to more accuracy.

[SeminoleWind]

Didnt something similar happen with hurricane Frances? I recall the models bouncing back and forth between Florida and the Carolinas. I am not saying this will be the case or that the sypnotics are similar.

yep i believe so

[psyclone]

Wow Ivan -- imagined if it missed the United States all together? Would that not be something??

There is as much of a chance of it missing the united states as there is of it making landfall. The east coast trough forecasted to be along the east coast later in the week looks strong enough to turn Irene northeast away from Florida.

you mentioned that yesterday. excellent job of placing that option on the table. please share your thoughts more frequently:)

[Ivanhater]

UKMET still in the Gulf

[vacanechaser]

i have seen a few comments on the nhc track being what it is and why they didnt shift east like the models.. one thing is that they never shift with each model run.. they will have consistent with the forecast over several hours and will show continuity with the previous forecast... now, if the trend in the models continues to show the eastward trend, i would expect they will start to pull it eastward slowly coming in line with what they feel is the better model consistency...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team