ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[Meso]

Good morning Don, rise and shine.

[AHS2011]

Excuse me for being off topic, but could that wave in the Central Atlantic become Emily soon? If so, when do you think the formation date will be?

[HurricaneBelle]

Also just looking at the NHC track, looks like its slowly coming a little further south towards S.Texas, might be a close call as to whether it breaks the USA's no TS run.

What "no TS run"? Bonnie made landfall as a TS in Florida last year.

It's almost 3 years without a hurricane landfalling in the US, and the intensity of Don is going to be a closer call than the track.

[Meso]

729
URNT15 KNHC 281257
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 18 20110728
124800 2504N 08914W 8429 01585 0124 +166 +060 125039 040 027 001 00
124830 2504N 08916W 8424 01593 0126 +164 +059 122039 041 019 000 00
124900 2504N 08918W 8426 01587 0122 +167 +059 118037 037 021 001 00
124930 2504N 08920W 8433 01583 0125 +163 +059 118036 037 023 001 00
125000 2504N 08922W 8429 01593 0129 +163 +058 120036 037 024 001 00
125030 2504N 08924W 8425 01593 0126 +165 +057 120037 037 025 001 03
125100 2504N 08926W 8429 01589 0127 +166 +057 118037 038 024 000 00
125130 2504N 08928W 8430 01587 0126 +168 +057 116036 036 025 000 00
125200 2504N 08930W 8434 01585 0127 +168 +057 114036 036 024 001 00
125230 2504N 08933W 8428 01589 0127 +164 +057 111036 036 027 001 03
125300 2504N 08935W 8434 01583 0123 +172 +057 110035 036 028 001 00
125330 2504N 08937W 8428 01589 0124 +170 +057 112034 035 028 001 00
125400 2504N 08939W 8432 01583 0120 +174 +058 116039 040 027 001 00
125430 2504N 08941W 8429 01587 0119 +173 +059 120040 040 028 000 00
125500 2504N 08943W 8430 01585 0120 +173 +060 123039 040 031 001 00
125530 2505N 08945W 8433 01585 0124 +170 +061 121037 037 033 000 00
125600 2505N 08947W 8432 01587 0122 +174 +062 116033 034 032 001 00
125630 2505N 08950W 8425 01593 0122 +171 +062 109034 035 032 000 03
125700 2505N 08952W 8433 01585 0124 +170 +062 106033 034 030 000 00
125730 2505N 08954W 8432 01588 0125 +170 +062 108033 033 029 000 00

[cycloneye]

Excuse me for being off topic, but could that wave in the Central Atlantic become Emily soon? If so, when do you think the formation date will be?

We are discussing about that wave at Talking Tropics forum.Join us there and get involved in the discussions about it.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111267&p=2144219#p2144219

[HURAKAN]

[jinftl]

Very small wind field....no ts force winds in either the nw or sw quadrants...and extend not far to the ne and se


ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.

[PTPatrick]

I sure wish don was a bit bigger in size just so he could soak a wider portion of Texas. Models not exactly showing a dumping with him either. Rain is rain and certainly the central Texas area needs it.

[KWT]

What "no TS run"? Bonnie made landfall as a TS in Florida last year.

It's almost 3 years without a hurricane landfalling in the US, and the intensity of Don is going to be a closer call than the track.

That was still a good 20 storm streak if you think about it which is a record I believe...and Bonnie barely was a TS by then as well to be fair!

[Bocadude85]

What "no TS run"? Bonnie made landfall as a TS in Florida last year.

It's almost 3 years without a hurricane landfalling in the US, and the intensity of Don is going to be a closer call than the track.

That was still a good 20 storm streak if you think about it which is a record I believe...and Bonnie barely was a TS by then as well to be fair!

Very true.. I think we had a rain shower from her.. thats about it

[TexasF6]

Is the mission over?

[wxman22]

Looking at the 12z models and the latest tvcn it looks like there may be a slight shift north in track next advisory.

[Meso]

967
URNT15 KNHC 281308
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 19 20110728
125800 2505N 08956W 8423 01594 0121 +173 +061 107033 034 030 000 00
125830 2505N 08958W 8435 01581 0122 +171 +060 110033 033 032 000 00
125900 2505N 09000W 8431 01588 0121 +175 +059 111031 031 031 000 00
125930 2505N 09002W 8428 01589 0119 +175 +059 108033 034 031 001 03
130000 2505N 09004W 8429 01588 0119 +175 +059 108033 034 030 000 00
130030 2505N 09006W 8430 01587 0122 +172 +059 110030 030 028 001 00
130100 2505N 09009W 8433 01585 0121 +175 +060 107030 031 029 003 03
130130 2505N 09011W 8429 01588 0122 +170 +060 105030 031 032 009 00
130200 2505N 09013W 8430 01587 0126 +163 +057 101030 031 040 011 03
130230 2505N 09015W 8435 01583 0124 +170 +051 102029 030 032 004 00
130300 2505N 09017W 8424 01595 0127 +164 +045 103029 030 034 006 00
130330 2505N 09019W 8435 01579 0134 +152 +041 099025 025 033 012 00
130400 2506N 09021W 8426 01590 0123 +170 +038 097024 026 030 004 00
130430 2506N 09023W 8429 01587 0121 +174 +036 099028 028 024 000 03
130500 2506N 09025W 8432 01584 0123 +170 +039 099027 028 022 000 00
130530 2506N 09027W 8422 01595 0123 +173 +045 095027 028 024 000 00
130600 2506N 09029W 8430 01588 0124 +172 +050 094027 028 028 002 00
130630 2506N 09031W 8430 01588 0125 +170 +053 095026 027 029 001 00
130700 2506N 09033W 8429 01591 0129 +169 +054 094024 025 030 001 00
130730 2506N 09035W 8430 01590 0128 +169 +055 094025 026 033 001 00

[5KOVERLIBOR]

I tried to generate discussion on this topic last season, with little success.

What impact does anomalously-low vertical instability in the GOM have on the situation with Don? I see no one discussing this feature and feel it has to be an important part of the whole picture. Yes TCHPs are warm, yes shear appears to be low in front of Don, but if there isn't a steep temperature gradient from the surface to 200 millibars, would it not follow that deep convection needed to support a stronger storm, not to mention periods of RI I saw prognosticated here ysdy, is not there?

Many thanks in advance.

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

Is the mission over?

No.

[djmikey]

Models shifted slightly northward...looks like the "flip-flop" begins!

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Model tracks.

[ozonepete]

I tried to generate discussion on this topic last season, with little success.

What impact does anomalously-low vertical instability in the GOM have on the situation with Don? I see no one discussing this feature and feel it has to be an important part of the whole picture. Yes TCHPs are warm, yes shear appears to be low in front of Don, but if there isn't a steep temperature gradient from the surface to 200 millibars, would it not follow that deep convection needed to support a stronger storm, not to mention periods of RI I saw prognosticated here ysdy, is not there?

Many thanks in advance.

If that chart covers the whole Gulf then it's pretty hard to apply it to one area. Lapse rates can vary tremendously from the Bay of Campeche, for example, to western Florida on any given day. I don't see how it can be of use for a particular storm. Of much more use are those numbers along the progged storm track as it's occurring.

[Meso]

933
URNT15 KNHC 281317
AF303 0204A DON HDOB 20 20110728
130800 2506N 09037W 8431 01591 0134 +159 +055 086024 026 036 006 00
130830 2506N 09040W 8436 01581 0127 +170 +053 090023 025 036 003 00
130900 2506N 09042W 8429 01593 0131 +166 +052 091023 023 028 001 03
130930 2507N 09043W 8425 01599 0130 +167 +052 089023 024 027 001 03
131000 2507N 09045W 8426 01596 0127 +171 +054 087020 022 028 001 03
131030 2506N 09047W 8433 01589 0127 +175 +058 087020 020 028 000 00
131100 2506N 09049W 8430 01591 0127 +171 +061 086021 021 027 001 00
131130 2506N 09051W 8430 01591 0126 +173 +062 081019 020 028 001 00
131200 2506N 09053W 8428 01594 0127 +171 +064 079020 020 027 000 03
131230 2506N 09055W 8430 01590 0128 +169 +065 077020 020 027 000 00
131300 2506N 09057W 8427 01595 0129 +169 +065 074017 019 026 000 00
131330 2506N 09059W 8432 01588 0127 +170 +065 072017 018 026 001 03
131400 2507N 09101W 8436 01585 0126 +174 +065 065021 021 021 000 00
131430 2506N 09103W 8420 01601 0128 +170 +065 066018 019 /// /// 03
131500 2505N 09103W 8429 01591 0129 +168 +066 074015 016 020 000 03
131530 2503N 09102W 8433 01590 0128 +171 +066 067015 016 027 002 00
131600 2502N 09101W 8442 01582 0129 +170 +065 068012 015 024 001 03
131630 2501N 09059W 8428 01594 0129 +167 +063 070014 014 024 000 00
131700 2500N 09058W 8432 01590 0129 +168 +062 078015 016 024 001 00
131730 2459N 09057W 8428 01591 0126 +171 +061 079016 016 024 000 00