ATL: IRENE - Models

[SeminoleWind]

The NHC will most likley shift right but only modestly, land interaction will be key, i am willing to say that Florida is still in the landfall forecast point from NHC.

[Ivanhater]

Very bad run!

[CrazyC83]

A very sad run

Wow showing a pressure of 941mb there - that would be a strong Cat 3/weak Cat 4.

[UpTheCreek]

Looks HORRIBLE for Charleston this run

Agreed, they are not fit for something like that. Would be bad for all of Carolinas too, IMO. What is an approx. intensity if it were down to a 952 pressure?

At that latitude and size, about 100 kt.

Thank you......

[CrazyC83]

Question: after landfall, Irene is supposed to slow down greatly correct? How far inland would the flood threat extend? I would have to say between 75-78W longitude it is a serious threat, but how far north?

[Bocadude85]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

[KWT]

Very powerful looking major hurricane into SC...that'd be a really bad solution to come off but thats always been near my worst case.

This is what I was saying when I said if the cente relocated northwards last night it'd be a VERY bad thing.

[Scorpion]

Looks like consensus is starting to show a very significant major for the Southeast, and with the ridge building in there is little to no chance of this being a fish. Someone is going to get absolutely hammered.

[Ivanhater]

Pressure at landfall on this run would be in the 930's!

[AdamFirst]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

Florida's been under the gun by all these models (sans the UKMET) for a week. No reason to think it's going to miss us now.

[gatorcane]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

Florida's been under the gun by all these models (sans the UKMET) for a week. No reason to think it's going to miss us now.

I thought the ECMWF would be more east. Wouldn't take much to bring it right through South Florida on that ECMWF fun, well within the track guidance error for that model.

[otowntiger]

12z Euro is showing the once in a lifetime hit on South Carolina

Uh, don't forget HUGO, 1989.

[Bocadude85]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

Florida's been under the gun by all these models (sans the UKMET) for a week. No reason to think it's going to miss us now.

Yes the models bring this system so close to the Florida coast that it would only take a slight delay in the northward turn and the center would be on the coast.

[bucman1]

Is there anything synopticallythat may push her back to the penninsula or even to the west coast of Florida ?

[SeminoleWind]

LOL all of the sudden people are taking these model runs like they are the gospel just yesterday some of the models had this in the gulf.. I gurantee you they will change again.. its going to be a close call for Florida no matter how you look at it.

Florida's been under the gun by all these models (sans the UKMET) for a week. No reason to think it's going to miss us now.

Yes the models bring this system so close to the Florida coast that it would only take a slight delay in the northward turn and the center would be on the coast.

all it takes is 4-8 hours in delay

[NDG]

18z early tropical models, they keep trending to the right.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 211815
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1815 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE (AL092011) 20110821 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110821  1800   110822  0600   110822  1800   110823  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.5N  63.7W   18.4N  66.8W   19.2N  69.7W   19.7N  72.1W
BAMD    17.5N  63.7W   18.2N  66.2W   18.9N  68.4W   19.5N  70.3W
BAMM    17.5N  63.7W   18.1N  66.4W   18.7N  68.8W   19.2N  70.7W
LBAR    17.5N  63.7W   18.5N  66.3W   19.2N  68.9W   19.8N  71.3W
SHIP        45KTS          52KTS          60KTS          69KTS
DSHP        45KTS          45KTS          45KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110823  1800   110824  1800   110825  1800   110826  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.1N  74.1W   20.6N  76.4W   24.5N  76.6W   30.9N  77.7W
BAMD    20.2N  71.8W   22.3N  74.6W   26.6N  77.5W   31.0N  79.7W
BAMM    19.8N  72.2W   21.6N  74.7W   25.9N  77.0W   30.8N  78.9W
LBAR    20.6N  73.7W   23.1N  77.8W   27.7N  80.2W   32.5N  81.5W
SHIP        77KTS          86KTS          95KTS         100KTS
DSHP        43KTS          52KTS          62KTS          36KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.5N LONCUR =  63.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  16.0N LONM12 =  60.4W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 =  19KT
LATM24 =  14.6N LONM24 =  57.0W
WNDCUR =   45KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS =  999MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =  130NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  70NM
 
$$


[otowntiger]

Looks like consensus is starting to show a very significant major for the Southeast, and with the ridge building in there is little to no chance of this being a fish. Someone is going to get absolutely hammered.

And you just hope its not us.

[AdamFirst]

Is there anything synopticallythat may push her back to the penninsula or even to the west coast of Florida ?

Sure. The trough may not be as defined or the weakness may not be as strong. But that all remains to be seen.

[KWT]

I thought the ECMWF would be more east. Wouldn't take much to bring it right through South Florida on that ECMWF fun, well within the track guidance error for that model.

I think it is a touch east but not much...

The forecast set-up aloft from the GFS/ECM at the moment suggest nearly no chance of a recurve. Still time for that to change I have to admit but we are getting close to that time when the broad set-up should be fairly well modelled.

ECM probably is very close to Hugo in strength!

[SeminoleWind]

Is there anything synopticallythat may push her back to the penninsula or even to the west coast of Florida ?

yes the ridge could build back a little quicker than forecast, which right now COULD happen